| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence 10:21 - May 22 with 518 views | johnlangy |
Not a statement of fact obviously but something to think about.
We know from a century of GE election results that Wales has never voted for a Tory government. But we've had Tory governments for about two thirds of that time because England does vote Tory.
In the Senedd elections next year even though Reform (more right wing than the Tories) may do well I believe they'll be nowhere near being the largest party. It will be a toss up between Labour and Plaid, hopefully with Plaid the largest and being the governing party.
Imagine then that in the 2029 GE a Reform government is voted in, again essentially by England. So our left wing government will have to try to deal with a Westminster government even more right wing than the Tories. With Nigel Farage as Prime Minister.
As a result in the 2031 Senedd election Plaid may stand on an Indy manifesto because they would have had to cope with two years of Reform policies which they'd be unable to fight against as Reform would have all the levers of power.
Lots of ifs and maybes there but a possibility. |  | | |  |
| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 12:55 - May 22 with 463 views | Kilkennyjack |
I know this guy fell out with darling Nigel, but he was elected as a Reform MP.
One of just handfull lets remember.
They are not likely to stand on this platform for the Senedd, but this is who they are.
[Post edited 22 May 14:03]
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| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 15:04 - May 22 with 403 views | SullutaCreturned |
As I said elsewhere, we need Westminster to allow a referndum, we have to ask, it's the legality of it. Reform won't allow it, come to that none of the "British" party's would. | | | |
| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 15:15 - May 22 with 392 views | Flashberryjack |
| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 15:04 - May 22 by SullutaCreturned |
As I said elsewhere, we need Westminster to allow a referndum, we have to ask, it's the legality of it. Reform won't allow it, come to that none of the "British" party's would. |
Referendum ? are good if they throw up the result that suit, problem is, if the result doesn't suit. |  |
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| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 15:22 - May 22 with 387 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 15:04 - May 22 by SullutaCreturned |
As I said elsewhere, we need Westminster to allow a referndum, we have to ask, it's the legality of it. Reform won't allow it, come to that none of the "British" party's would. |
You are right in that none of the ‘British’ parties would welcome it, but as democratic people thats not a sustainable position if the demand is there.
Laws change due to protest, of course - and the fact that Scotland already had a vote makes denying Wales a vote problematic.
Dont forget : The UN Charter recognizes the right to self-determination of all peoples as a fundamental principle and a key purpose of the organization.
Scotland and Ireland will have votes before Wales anyway so not one to stress over.
A Plaid government could organise one anyway if they controlled the Senedd. The days of sending in the tanks are over. | |
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| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 15:53 - May 22 with 361 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 15:15 - May 22 by Flashberryjack |
Referendum ? are good if they throw up the result that suit, problem is, if the result doesn't suit. |
Then you say we need another one a few years later. |  |
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| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 17:20 - May 22 with 320 views | SullutaCreturned |
| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 15:22 - May 22 by Kilkennyjack |
You are right in that none of the ‘British’ parties would welcome it, but as democratic people thats not a sustainable position if the demand is there.
Laws change due to protest, of course - and the fact that Scotland already had a vote makes denying Wales a vote problematic.
Dont forget : The UN Charter recognizes the right to self-determination of all peoples as a fundamental principle and a key purpose of the organization.
Scotland and Ireland will have votes before Wales anyway so not one to stress over.
A Plaid government could organise one anyway if they controlled the Senedd. The days of sending in the tanks are over. |
Your first sentence nails it though, "if the demand is there" and right now it very definitely isn't. It may get there eventually but I'll be surprised if it's in less than 30 years.
The days of sending in the tanks can be over but these days there is international law, if Westminster don't agree to a vote and we have one anyway, it'll be illegal. Then if we voted leave it wouldn't be recognised by the UN though they would likley put pressure on Westminster to allow a legal vote.
On the other hand a vote to remain in the Union would then see the chance of it happening put back decades.
When it comes to an indy vote, timing will be crucial. | | | |
| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 18:35 - May 22 with 283 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Reform Government equals Welsh Independence on 17:20 - May 22 by SullutaCreturned |
Your first sentence nails it though, "if the demand is there" and right now it very definitely isn't. It may get there eventually but I'll be surprised if it's in less than 30 years.
The days of sending in the tanks can be over but these days there is international law, if Westminster don't agree to a vote and we have one anyway, it'll be illegal. Then if we voted leave it wouldn't be recognised by the UN though they would likley put pressure on Westminster to allow a legal vote.
On the other hand a vote to remain in the Union would then see the chance of it happening put back decades.
When it comes to an indy vote, timing will be crucial. |
International law would insist that wales has a path to independence if the majority want it.
Englands majority of MPs cannot pass laws that jail the Celtic nations.
Such a law - if passed - would be found illegal under challenge.
More likely would be a condition to seek a 60 or 65 % super majority, thats far more like it.
51% would not be enough.
You are correct on timing.
Two dynamics to watch - can Plaid win the Senedd next year ? And the external influences of the direction of travel for both Scotland and Ireland. | |
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