The Fortune Teller - RamZone Championship Preview
Saturday, 6th Aug 2011 11:54 by Paul Mortimer

RamZone reporter Paul Mortimer has studied the teams and presents his preview of 11/12 and what the Championship teams might produce.

Current statistics reveal that managers in the Football League enjoy tenure of just over one and a half years at their current club. The pressure for results and progress is ever-present - and even though Clough has had the benefit of full board support at Derby, the pressure is just as apparent.

Half of the Championship clubs have undergone recent managerial upheaval - most of them during this summertime. New managers now have to quickly assess the squads they inherited, deal with pending transfer deals in and out, assemble their own backroom team and so on.

Derby has stability on its side. In the light of results (and bearing in mind the fate of many other struggling managers) such loyalty could stem in part to GSE’s lack of appetite for new recruitment.

GSE clearly wished to avoid all the attendant upheaval and cost of paying off another managerial entourage and they have regularly declared that they trust in Clough.

Many fans, though, perceived Mr Glick as lacking the experience and ability to attract or secure the services of a top-class football manager.

Derby’s lowly status in the table and absence of visible on-field progress makes attracting the best players more difficult too. Assuming real money is there to buy the experienced players we need - as opposed to ones that are available or hope to take the step to a bigger club - the squad is still lacking, as already discussed in RamZone’s “What We Did on Our Holidays”, last week.

Some clubs will benefit from Premier League ‘parachute money’ and can afford to retain or recruit more expensive players. It sure doesn’t get any easier to succeed in the Championship.

‘Resident’ Championship clubs with declared ambitions like Derby County should have the advantage of a more settled club when it comes down to the business of achieving a good start to the season…however, it is a long season - so quality, stamina and strength in depth will still tell in the end.

By the time Saturday comes, of course, things could change at Derby or any other club, with significant signings or departures, or injury problems and solutions. All clubs also have to negotiate the rest of the transfer window to keep their best players.

Apologies to anyone if competing fans think I’ve made omissions or errors - hey, part of the process is to provoke discussion and responses from you, anyway!

I’m far from a fortune teller and probably can’t claim the accuracy of the tentacled tipster, Paul the Octopus - but here’s the first chunk of my potted preview (in alphabetical order) of my current expectations for the 2011-12 Championship clubs, and their prospects for the new season:

Barnsley fell out with Mark Robins (or vice versa) and Keith Hill recently took the hot seat at Oakwell. I can’t see them making any great headlines but they are established at this level. Verdict: Mid table or lower - Barnsley perpetually lack the resources to win promotion to the elite.

Birmingham City gave the wrong noises to manager Alex McLeish following their relegation from the Premier League, so he hopped controversially from St Andrews to Villa Park. Chris Hughton, who halted Newcastle United’s decline and propelled them to immediate promotion in 2009-10, has been brought in to hopefully perform that feat at Brum.

City has already released a dozen or so players, and that’s almost before Hughton gets busy in the transfer market. A big financial question-mark also hangs over the club in the wake of major shareholder Carson Yeung’s overseas’ arrest on £59m-worth of money-laundering charges.

Star players are leaving St Andrews (and why on earth did Brum turn down a £16m joint bid from Stoke City for Scott Dann and Cameron Jerome?) Hughton, however, is a calm, collected stabilising force and he turned Newcastle around in very quick order. Verdict: (given that Brum rides gathering financial and legal storms) I expect City to be in the top six, perhaps the top two.

Blackpool FC lost the plot in the Premier League and succumbed to relegation in the end. In some ways, it was a surprise to see their season come apart after such an exuberant start. They will remain an entertaining and spirited club as long as Holloway remains there.

He has signed 8 players including the experienced Barry Ferguson and Kevin Phillips. However, without the spark of Charlie Adam, David Vaughan and other departees, they may have to settle for life back in the Championship. Verdict: ‘Pool could make the top six but won’t go all the way.

Brighton & Hove Albion is a progressive club and has renewed ambitions to go with their new stadium. The Seagulls clinched promotion from League One last season and will celebrate by moving into The American Express Community Stadium.

After a 14-year battle to build a new ground, the fans’ dream has been realised at last. Their success shows what fan unity and concerted action can achieve through determined grass-roots work and lobbying together.

Albion will need time to adapt having climbed this high again after a long absence. Manager Gus Poyet has surprisingly captured Peterborough hot-shot Craig Makail-Smith for £2.5m from under the noses of QPR, Leicester and West Ham but they could still find the going tough. Verdict: I expect them to consolidate, though may finish in the lower third of the Championship table.

Bristol City could be dark horses this time around but they lack strength in depth. They have been buying astutely and are visibly ambitious, and so far have retained their talismanic striker, Nicky Maynard. How I wish he’d sign for Derby!

Verdict: How long will the city of Bristol be a ‘Cinderella’ football venue? Perhaps not forever - but they may fade this time around, so they’ll have to make do with a top ten finish.

Burnley have lost the unremarkable ex-Ram Tyrone Mears and Chris Eagles (who is an Olympic-standard diver, albeit on a football pitch). They will have ‘parachute’ money but lack the scale or clout to attract big support or the very best players. Verdict: I don’t see them as a top six side.

Cardiff City, the perennial ‘Cinderella club’ losing out after several seasons near the top of the table, have dispensed with the services of Dave Jones.

City shed 12 players as well as their management team after the play-offs defeat, including strikers Bothroyd and Chopra, so a squad reshaping is now under way. Contract-hopping ex-Ram Kenny Miller has now joined their ranks.

The Bluebirds have drafted in Watford’s manager Malky Mackay; he’s an up-and-coming manager and looks to have a good future - but I’m sticking my neck out and will say my Verdict for Cardiff is outside the top six this time around!

Coventry City has ambition but also an unstable recent financial history. City aspires to Premier League status but may lack the stability or support to see it through. SISU, the hedge-fund vehicle through which Jeremy Keith wanted to operate Derby County, control the club. The Sky Blues are losing money and whilst having promises of investment, it isn’t yet tangible and boardroom splits have hindered progress.

On-field, the club plummeted down the Championship table in 2011 from a top six pre-Christmas place, in the same manner as Derby County. City reacted by sacking manager Aidy Boothroyd and has given the role to Steve Harrison.

The Sky Blues unveiled a new statue of former Highfield Road icon Jimmy Hill outside the Ricoh Arena recently but fans might have to take it on the chin again, as their team looks unlikely to improve drastically in the present scheme of things. Verdict: a mid-table finish.

Crystal Palace doesn’t seem to have been a hotbed of activity in the summertime and their chances of success seem limited. They might benefit from having let Claude ‘Clod’ Davis go but have also lost the abilities of Counago and Mahon. Verdict: There isn’t much to write home about from Selhurst Park, so I’ll stop writing and predict a bottom-half finish, maybe relegation.

Derby County - well, we live in hope! Please see my previous analysis for a view of how things may turn out for us in 2011-12 at this link:

http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/derbycounty/fb_news.php?storyid=13317&title=what_we_did_on_our_holidays

Doncaster Rovers might not threaten the top of the league but look solid enough to stay out of too much trouble. There are many reliable, experienced players at the Keepmoat Stadium though star turns also seem absent. Verdict: Rovers seem destined for anonymous safety once again.

Hull City flattered to deceive in 2010-11 and couldn’t bounce back after relegation from the Premier League. Finance and wages are attendant issues and £50k-a-week Jimmy Bullard, whom Ipswich can’t afford either, is now suspended pending investigation of pre-season indiscipline.

The Tigers haven’t yet assembled a team to challenge and so they may well be in limbo for another season. Verdict: upper mid-table, I’d expect.

Ipswich Town are among those clubs whose manager only got his feet under the table since the New Year. They sacked the cheerless Roy Keane and recruited Paul Jewell, as the Tractor Boys fortunes had dipped dangerously. Jewell was allowed to spend money immediately and Town recovered to a mid-table position.

Jewell is rebuilding comprehensively; he has mirrored his move at Derby in buying Robbie Savage by acquiring Lee Bowyer to drive the midfield - but has sold young star Conor Wickham to Sunderland. Town have great support and top-flight intentions but I’m not convinced that Jewell is the man that can deliver them there.

Verdict: though Jewell should do a better job at Portman Road than his utter debacle at Derby (and that’s hardly difficult), I’ll tip them for a top ten finish - but not top six.

Leeds United has the support and stability to continue their recovery, after a good season straight after promotion from the third tier in 2010-11. There is, however, a feeling that they missed a good chance to go ‘straight through’ with back-to-back promotions in 2010-11; some members of that spirited team have now left Elland Road.

They’ve acquired a good ‘keeper in Preston’s Andy Lonergan but have lost their cutting edge with striker departures and injuries, too. Verdict: They will miss out on a top six place this time around.

Leicester City’s owners demand promotion and they expect Sven Goran Eriksson to deliver it ASAP. If they are faltering instead of making a charge for the top, more managerial upheaval is likely at the newly-sponsored King Power Stadium.

Leicester fell short last season but is still investing heavily in players. Whilst Rams fans can only talk about their team needing (for instance) a long-term left-back solution, Foxes fans saw their club sign a Premier League one this week as they captured Stoke’s Carl Dickinson.

Verdict: The furry Foxes could well make the top six cut in 2011-12 - but if it is ‘only’ top ten, then Sven will be long gone, back on his never-ending travels yet again!

Middlesbrough FC flopped last season when expected to be strong contenders after relegation from the Premier League. They have seemed to enjoy success or mediocrity in equal measure recently - and I remain unconvinced by the dour Tony Mowbray.

Verdict: Teeside needs some cheer but I still can’t see Boro making a charge in 2011-12; another mid-table finish is predicted.

Millwall FC, unloved but defiant, had a solid season in 2010-11 but remain a club whose potential seems ultimately limited. They don’t have sugar-daddies at the helm like QPR, do they?

They have cashed in on their highly-regarded striker Steve Morison so they aren’t paupers at the moment. However I still don’t see them attracting the players or the support to progress further. Verdict: bottom-half finish or worse.

Nothingham Forest sacked Billy Davies after another play-offs failure, which might have surprised him - but not any Derby County or Preston North End fans. The Trees cannily grabbed Steve McLaren, looking to return to club management but carelessly snubbed by Aston Villa.

McLaren may well achieve another shot at the Premier League eventually but he is struggling to recruit at the City Ground. Some ageing names have been added to replace departees but at the time of writing, McLaren has thus far failed to recruit the players he wants, and some of his main targets have gone elsewhere. Shame, that!

Verdict: 2011-12 may be a transitional season for the Trees - they will be top ten but not top six.

Peterborough United are a League One-to-Championship ‘yo-yo’ club; a big fish in the lower league but regularly struggle to last the pace when promoted. They had a good run last season to win promotion again having re-installed Darren Ferguson (who was sacked by Preston midway through 2010-11).

Verdict: I can’t see any great achievement for Posh - and Craig Makail-Smith’s 35-goal haul was the factor that propelled them to promotion. Verdict: they could be heading for the drop (again).

Portsmouth FC had a glittering FA Cup success just a couple of seasons ago but crashed spectacularly on and off the field. They failed to bounce back to the Premier League amid a flurry of ownership wrangles; it’s been revealed that Pompey’s debt is £138m with a wages bill of £40m.

Those are sobering statistics for any club to contemplate (Derby included) that is trying to chase the dream. Whilst Pompey needs Premier League status and income levels to reduce their debt, they remain in transition and I cannot see them challenging.

They have forked out a large fee for our unwanted Luke Varney but I can’t see him setting the League on fire. Verdict: Mid-table consolidation.

Reading FC invited Brian McDermott to step up to the manager’s chair to replace Brendan Rogers at the Madejski Stadium during a poor run in 2010-11. McDermott masterminded a sterling recovery to romp into the play-offs. They remain a stable, well organised and ambitious club.

Verdict: with the Royals recharged after a strong finish to the season, they will be looking for a top six place again and for one I won’t count them out.

Southampton is a club on the mend. After so long in the top flight, their descent to the third tier has been painful for their fans and there was attendant boardroom instability and financial woes.

Nigel Adkins is an astute, talented and ambitious manager and I’d expect him to consolidate at Championship level and then be able to restore the Saints’ fortunes. Verdict: Southampton will enjoy a comfortable return to the Championship.

Watford FC lost Malky Mackay to Cardiff City and Sean Dyche is now in charge. It’s a fair distance from the Hornet’s Elton John/Graham Taylor glory days but they remain ambitious and achieved far more than bigger clubs (including Derby) last time out. Mackay will be missed though, and my Verdict for Watford is a finish in the lower regions.

West Ham United seems beset by financial problems and instability and the doomed Avram Grant was belatedly removed after their unthinkable relegation became a reality. Yet, they still chased their glamour move to the Olympic Stadium, adding to what can be perceived as an over-estimation of their own status and potential.

The experienced Sam Allardyce has replaced Grant and whilst he doesn’t fit their self-regarding ‘Academy’ image, his know-how and pragmatism should get them pointing in the right direction. He’s already collected some ex-Bolton allies including Kevin Nolan, Matt Taylor and Joey O’Brien.

Verdict: As much as it would be fun to see WHU ‘doing a Leeds’ and failing to recover as quickly as expected, they will have some good players and it is difficult to disregard their prospects for a top six or top two finish.

So, there you have it! Any time someone writes up a set of football predictions like this, he or she is there to be shot down in 9 months’ time. So be it! A lot can happen in that period with player signings and departures, management changes, club finances, at Derby or elsewhere.

There’s usually a ‘surprise package’ that rockets up the table to challenge - and always a couple of dud “bookies’ favourites” that underachieve badly, too. In alphabetical order (not in their finishing position), here’s how season 2011-12 will pan out in my view.

You’ll just have to discuss (or deride) my predictions in the meantime, if you’ve nowt else better to do! Post your own thoughts, too - then await the moment of truth in May 2012, won’t you?

Top Six:

Birmingham City

Blackpool

Derby

Leicester City

Reading

West Ham

Chasing pack:

Bristol City

Hull City

Ipswich Town

Leeds United