Not much time to savour the fun and games of a last minute winner at Preston on Friday, with the R’s straight back into action on Easter Monday at home to in form Swansea.

QPR (13-14-16 DWDWDW 14th) v Swansea (16-9-18 LDWWWW 11th)

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When you follow Queens Park Rangers around, you can’t really afford not to enjoy days like Friday when they come along.

First day of a long weekend, awayday on the road with the team, beers on the train and mates in the pub, a victory for the team with two goals in the final ten minutes, a 25-yard winner with the last kick of injury time. These are the good old days. Don’t look for meaning. Don’t pick fault. Don’t over analyse. Just get yourself into that Tesco Metro opposite the station and load up for the journey home.

I said similar after we’d beaten Derby 4-0 at home - you don’t know when these things might happen again so savour them when they do arrive.

We’re not employed by the club, we don’t work in the sport, our careers don’t depend on it. We’re not players, managers, analysts, scouts. It can feel like first fanzines, then websites like this, then social media, and latterly YouTube and podcasts, have made pundits of us all. Like we have to have some opinion, or cutting piece of analysis about it all. Sometimes it’s nice to just get pissed up in Preston on a Good Friday and have your team win in the last minute.

That’s what it’s all about, who cares how the sausage is made?

However, we didn’t win again for another two months after the Derby game, and these previews don’t write themselves so… The three big questions I’ve come out of the Good Friday game with are the ones that have been troubling me for a few weeks.

The first is how much the injuries we’ve suffered this year have undermined the team’s efforts and damaged the results. How far could and would this team have gone with a better bill of health? You saw on Saturday how much better we looked with the likes of Colback, Dembele, Saito, Kolli, Frey and Andersen involved and they’ve all missed big minutes at one time or another. Leading on from that, how much of our lengthy absentee list this year was preventable? Have we just been really unlucky, or are we doing things wrong in our training, in our preparation, in our warmups and downs, in our diet plans, in our rest and recovery? Is it just an unhappy coincidence that we had our best season for injuries in years last season while the heralded head of performance was on site, and our worst for a long time this term when he’s working remotely and doing other gigs besides? Or is there something in that?

Answers, if answers are to be found, will form an important part of this summer, because with our budget, our squad, and the lack of academy prospects to act as back up, you’re always going to struggle if you’re missing eight-ten players for the majority of your games. Next season will be another chore, focused entirely on avoiding relegation, if it happens again.

The second question is around mentality. That was a good second half performance on Saturday. I liked Kolli’s performance off the bench, I liked the Varane and Colback combination in the troubled central midfield area, I love Morrison (unbeaten in 13 starts) and Edwards (beautiful) as a burgeoning centre half pairing, and we were thoroughly good value for the win. It was much more than a 2-1 game, for me. We missed several chances that should have been taken. Even Nicholas Madsen seems to slowly be turning a corner, with four chances created there to go with the six across the previous two games.

The question is, where has this been? Where was it through February and March when we were still within shout of the play-offs? Where was it in the first three months of the season? I’ve picked on Madsen enough, let’s look at Harrison Ashby instead. Chucking himself into all sorts of stuff on Friday. Sliding tackles, big blocks. Whirling his arms around. Thumping his chest. He’s been bloody drek, for months, suddenly at Preston on Good Friday he’s Mark Dennis after a bit of a swim in a vat of Tan In A Can.

Pressure off, sun shining, nothing at stake, season over, we’re popping the ball around and playing well. Few weeks ago, Tuesday night at Middlesbrough, didn’t want to know. We’ve spoken about the number of times this club goes on these long losing runs, and how they seem to become self-perpetuating things for a team that lives inside its own head. Is it just injuries? Difficult fixtures? Or is it a mentality thing? When things are going well we’re very self congratulatory and in love with ourselves, the moment they get moderately difficult we wilt.

Again, answers, if answers are to be found, will be critical in whether we progress at all next season or end up once again sticking a few results on the board at the end in the fight for sixteenth having frightened the fuck out of everybody through another spring losing run.

The third thing is whether it’s actually just none of that at all. Everybody gets injuries, increasingly so according to the stats and data, we’re not special or unique and we’re not doing anything particularly different or wrong other than perhaps having to sign more players with questionable fitness records than you’d ideally like because of the budget. Said budget means 14th in the Championship is about where we should be for wage bill – usually the best indicator of where teams are going to end up. We’ve had two substantial losing runs, one long winning one, but it’s averaged out at 14th and that is just about par for the course.

Who we’ve beaten this year lends weight to this. PNE, 16th at the start of play on Friday, are the highest-placed team Marti Cifuentes’ side have beaten away. Their six away wins have been against the teams currently 24th, 23rd, 22nd, 20th, 19th and PNE now 17th. If you read down from the top of the table you now have to get to tenth before you find a team we’ve beaten at all – Blackburn at home. In the 16 games we’ve played against the top nine (Burnley and Sunderland still to come) we’ve won none (D8 L8). We finish the year with three doubles – Preston (17th), Oxford (19th) and Luton (22nd).

Like the win at Preston on Friday, perhaps we should just accept it and enjoy it for what it is. This is how good we are. Injuries, mentality, whatever – you’re about the 14th best team in the league. We’re exactly where we should be, you could very well argue, and had the results been spread out more evenly this would be seen as a decent season of progress (albeit rather boring).

How you improve on that with our budget will, again, be a key discussion point for the summer. For now, though, we have Lucas Andersen’s barnburner, and the ongoing search for the fat lad from the side stand.

Oh, and Swansea, yeh. Grrrrr.

Links >>> Sheehan’s pitch – Oppo Profile >>> Sublime Taarabt – History >>> Nield in charge – Referee >>> Official Website >>> Planet Swans — Blog and Forum >>> Swansea Independent - Forum >>> Wales Online — Local Paper >>> The Jack Army — Forum >>> SOS - Fanzine

Below the fold

Team News: QPR have been dealt a double blow in attack following Friday’s game. Koki Saito, just back from a three-match ban, appeared to dislocate his shoulder at Deepdale was stretchered off at half time and if I know British hospitals on an Easter weekend is probably waiting on a trolley in some corridor somewhere deep within the Royal Preston. Paul Smyth’s retaliation against Frokjaer-Jensen, which the referee did see at the time and deemed only worthy of a free kick, has now resulted in a retrospective three-match ban, because the referee says he didn’t see it and presumably awarded a free kick for some other mystery crime. That ends Smyth’s season early having played in every league game to this point.

Luckily Michi Frey and Rayan Kolli both returned from their recent absences with good performances off the bench so one would think it a pretty straightforward job of slotting one of those in from the start up front and shifting Yang Min-Hyeok back to a wide role. Emmerson Sutton has been on the bench a couple of times recently so perhaps we’ll see a bit of him, which might be fun.

Kenneth Paal returned from his hamstring knock with a sub appearance so will push Harrison Ashby for the starting left back spot. Hard to imagine they’ll push any of the Ilias Chair types who were injured Friday too hard to be back for this one with nothing on the line.

Elsewhere: The “oh my God, what a league” narrative around everybody technically still being in contention for something on Friday could quickly fade away to both automatic promotion spots, three of the four play-off positions, and one of the three relegation places all being decided with two games still left to play if results fall a certain way today.

Red Bull Leeds and Burnley will be promoted if both win. Leeds are at home to Stoke while Burnley are at home to the third placed team Sheffield Red Stripe. If they both win their remaining three games then the top two will both be promoted with 100 points for the first time.

Sunderland, at home to Blackburn, have been assured of fourth for weeks, and rested players over the Easter weekend. They’ll be joined by Bristol City in the Championship play-offs for the first time since 2008 if they win at Luton and Middlesbrough fail to win at Sheff Wed. Coventry are one point back from Bristol and three ahead of Boro in sixth. They too can all but secure a play-off berth with a win at Plymouth and a Middlesbrough defeat.

West Brom and Millwall’s chances largely died with defeats on Friday – Millwall somehow contriving to turn four wins in five games into a loss at Blackburn. They both have to win this
Monday, at home to Derby and Norwich respectively, if they’re to stand any chance.

At the bottom, the scandalous late award of a penalty against Plymouth at Middlesbrough on Friday leaves the Pilgrims three points adrift with a vastly inferior goal difference and three games left to play. Victory in that home game with Coventry feels imperative, particularly as they’ve only won one away game all year.

Omer Riza branding his own fans clueless in his pre-match press conference, then starting fights with local journalists in the post-match asking how they’d manage the team differently, has produced an inevitable second sacking of the season at Cardiff. Meathead. They’re backing Aaron Ramsey to be able to stand on the touchline for the remaining three games without suffering a DVT or snapping his leg or something, starting with a crucial homer against Oxford.

Luton and Derby are both one point ahead of the Welsh side after the Hatters won at Pride Park on Friday. Luton play Bristol City while Derby travel to West Brom as previously stated – in fact, West Brom will have a big hand in deciding all this with games left against Derby, Cardiff and Luton. Hull have taken one point from three games, so need something at home to Preston Knob End as they sit two places and points outside the drop zone.

Oxford are probably the last of the others that could still be drawn in, with Portsmouth’s Friday win moving them six points clear ahead of a homer against Watford.

Referee: Tom Nield, in a third year on the Championship list, takes his first QPR or Swansea game of the season. Details.

Form

QPR: Marti Cifuentes has won his first four games against Preston, which Jack Supple tells us is the best such record since Ian Holloway won his first five against Stoke. Three wins in a row at Deepdale is as many as the R’s had managed there in their previous 23 visits. Rangers have gone from six away wins on the spin to two wins in a row at Oxford and Preston. The result means the R’s are now four unbeaten, winning two, after going seven without a win, losing five. At Loftus Road Rangers have drawn their last three games against Leeds, Cardiff and Bristol City.

Liam Morrison continues his fine individual stats despite QPR’s struggles this year. He hasn’t lost any of his 13 starts for the club (W7 D6). They have conceded just nine goals with him on the pitch this season across his 1031 minutes of action (13 starts and five sub appearances). The team has kept nine clean sheets all season, and Morrison has played in six of those despite only making 18 appearances. Michi Frey’s goal at Deepdale moves him onto nine goals from 21 starts and seven sub appearances this season. QPR haven’t had a player make double figures since Andre Gray got ten in 2021/22.

Only Coventry City (22) have scored more Championship goals from crosses this season than QPR (15), with four of their last eight league goals coming via crosses.

Swansea: The Swans are coming home with a wet sail, four wins on the spin leading into this one with four clean sheets into the bargain. The Swans last won four successive league games without conceding in March 2008. It’s been 15 years since they kept four successive clean sheets in League – a six-match run in 2010. This continues a significant upward trend since Luke Williams was sacked on February 18 and replaced with caretaker manager Alan Sheehan. Swansea had won one of ten games, losing eight, at the point that decision was made. They’ve now won six and lost only two of ten since Sheehan took charge. Only Burnley have won more Championship points in that time.

Away from home things aren’t quite as impressive, though in the last two games they’ve taken on top four sides Leeds and Sunderland drawing 2-2 at Elland Road and winning 1-0 at The Stadium of Light. Further back though, that Sunderland win is their only road win in five and they’ve won just two of 11 away from home. Their overall record on the road is 6-4-11.

Liam Cullen, who scored twice in the first meeting, is the top scorer here with 11 goals (ten in the league). That 3-0 Boxing Day hammering in South Wales ended a run of seven tight games between the sides – four 1-0 wins either way and three draws. The last three meetings at Loftus Road have all been drawn. QPR haven’t beaten the Swans at home in five attempts since Jordan Hugill’s double helped them to a 5-1 FA Cup success in January 2020.

Prediction: In our Prediction League for 2024/25 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. For the first time last year we had joint winners so this season you’ll be hearing from one or both WestonsuperR and SimplyNico in the match previews...

Nico’s Prediction: “After the Preston Resurrection from Danish Jesus, we have Swansea. They are currently one of the form teams in the Championship, with a rock solid defence and four wins on the bounce. I thought we looked really good at Preston. Rayan Kolli looked really lively when he came on, and we were solid at the back and in midfield. I think this one will be a low scoring draw.”

Weston’s Call “Swansea four wins in a row, QPR eight points from four matches, end of season with nothing to play for so anything could happen, it would be crazy to predict with any confidence. I’m interested to see if Marti starts to pick players that will be at QPR next season although not even sure he will be, personally desperate to see him stay and fear for us if he goes. Totally guess but let’s go 2-2 and Frey to move to double figures for the season.

Nico’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Swansea. Scorer – Rayan Kolli

WestonSuperR’s Prediction: QPR 2-2 Swansea. Scorer – Michi Frey

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Swansea. Scorer – Michi Frey

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Pictures - Reuters Connect

062259 added 14:14 - Apr 21 Acceptance
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TacticalR added 14:53 - Apr 21 Thanks for your preview. Some of our problems (like injuries) are objective. However, there's definitely a mentality thing...we play better when there's nothing at stake. Swansea are a bit of a bogey side for us, so getting something out of the game would be good.
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