| Robith's Relegation Index 09:42 - Oct 3 with 30836 views | robith |
I think we can all agree that our primary objective this year needs to be first and foremost to stay up. Further it's been say a mixed bag of a season, where even I, the perennial happy clapper was calling for the manager to be sacked after 5 games. I saw a comment in Brian's thread of someone saying "well, they'll just say Reading were crap" and that got me thinking. Yeah people will.
So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.
So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen.
I've set the base for safety at 50 points. Can revise on feedback
So Gameweek 11:
Played: 11/46 - 24% of games played
Points: 13/50 - 26% of points needed
Based on this our current survival index is 109
At this stage we look like staying up, but it's not a sure thing - we're tracking very close to the baseline run rate.
Stay tuned for more exciting stats action as it comes |  | | |  |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 07:56 - Nov 12 with 7212 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Title index? |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:03 - Nov 12 with 7124 views | superhoopdownunder |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 07:56 - Nov 12 by BazzaInTheLoft |
Title index? |
I agree it should be called promotion or play off index |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:41 - Nov 12 with 7095 views | kropotkin41 |
I now look at it this way, if we go on horrible relegation form, even just under 1 point a game from the rest of the season, we'll still likely finish in 20th or 21st and stay up with 50+ points. I don't think that's going to happen. |  |
| ‘morbid curiosity about where this is all going’ |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:00 - Nov 12 with 6957 views | robith |
Survival index: 141
Play off index: 96
36% of the average points to finish 6th with 37% of games played.
Do I need to say it again? B.E.L.I.E.V.E
After Christmas I'll do a check on the current run rates of this season to see if our averages need to be increased or decreased. | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:29 - Nov 12 with 6893 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:03 - Nov 12 by superhoopdownunder |
I agree it should be called promotion or play off index |
Yeah, but who cares?
The fact that we can even discuss the prospects of getting into the top 6 is a huge step forward compared to last year, and an even bigger one from seasons before that, let alone August this season.
Hat-tip to all concerned especially McClaren and I freely admit that my fear of how he would carry on after that start has been proved wrong. (Credit due to those who appointed him, too.) | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 15:26 - Nov 12 with 6854 views | kensalriser |
Can we donate the relegation index to Brentford now? |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 20:34 - Nov 12 with 6728 views | QPR_Nippon |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 23:34 - Nov 11 by DavieQPR |
Count it again. We had 19 pts after 16 games last season and only got 11pts from the next 16 games. |
My totals are based on comparing how we fared in the same fixtures last season Davie, not comparing this stage of the season to last year. For example, last season we only drew at home to Brentford, this season we won, so saturday’s result saw a net gain of 2 points. (NB. Highest placed promoted team of last season, Wigan, substitute for highest placed relegated team, Barnsley for comparative purposes, and so on).
3 points against the Bees takes us back above what we got from the same fixtures last year: 26 from 17 compared to 25 from the ‘same’ 17 fixtures last season.
In Robith’s index terms (100 being par, in this case with last season) that lifts us from 96 to 104, so McClaren nudges back ahead of Holloway. Next 6 matches saw us take only 4 points from corrresponding fixtures last season, so hopefully we’ll see that number go up between now and Christmas:) |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:18 - Nov 28 with 6385 views | robith |
Update post Rotherham
Survival index: 136. The pleasant uplands of safety beckon ever closer
Playoff index:93. NINETY THREE
Embrace the index and believe. The index is love. | | | |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:58 - Dec 3 with 6095 views | robith |
:-/
Safety: 129
Playoffs: 88 | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 08:00 - Dec 4 with 6009 views | QPR_Nippon |
28 points from 20 matches, total now back to a point below that gained from the corresponding fixtures last season (29)
I guess this comparison will cease to be relevant in 3 matches’ time, at which point we will have played everyone in the division once.
But the next 3 games were lost 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 respectively last season and are all against teams in the top 5. Hard to see us picking up more than one or two points from these, and with 75 points usually required for top 6 we would then need to average 2 points a game over the 2nd half of the season just to scrape into the playoffs.
Just goes to show how important it was to get a decent points haul from the last 3 games against teams below us. | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:44 - Dec 10 with 5783 views | robith |
Safety: 123
Playoffs: 84
Not off the rails yet, btu could do with a couple of back to back 3 pointers to look a bit healthier again | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:18 - Dec 17 with 5533 views | robith |
Boro Gameweek 22
Safety: 130
Play offs: 89
The index is back baby. It's good again. Awooo (wolf howl) | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 19:37 - Dec 26 with 5283 views | CiderwithRsie |
Come on Robith, how about an update so we can all have a bit of a gloat, eh?Hang on, just realised we're exactly half way through the season, so even I can do part of this myself:
50% of games played
37/50 points = 74% of points needed to avoid relegation
37/73 points = just over 50% of points needed for play-offs.
It's on, isn't it? Can it be?
[Post edited 26 Dec 2018 19:46]
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 20:11 - Dec 26 with 5193 views | BlackCrowe |
Yeah fckng come on Robith, you started this insanity, keep with the programme. Must be looking good. |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 21:59 - Dec 26 with 5009 views | Hooparoo |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 19:37 - Dec 26 by CiderwithRsie |
Come on Robith, how about an update so we can all have a bit of a gloat, eh?Hang on, just realised we're exactly half way through the season, so even I can do part of this myself:
50% of games played
37/50 points = 74% of points needed to avoid relegation
37/73 points = just over 50% of points needed for play-offs.
It's on, isn't it? Can it be?
[Post edited 26 Dec 2018 19:46]
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You just made it very easy to understand. Thanks mate.
I haven’t dared to think about the playoffs but the facts are really starting to look that way. Today was another banana skin we would normally slip on but this team is very professional. Let’s hope it’s the “New QPR” way. 😃 |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:29 - Jan 2 with 4702 views | robith |
Gosh the games come fast over Christmas don't they!
Survival: 139 - 78% of safety points from 57% of games. It's close now
Play offs: 95. Points against reading or villa would have had us over 100 for the first time. Make no mistake ladies and gentlemen, there's a long way ago, but we are statistically in the hunt.
Do you B.E.L.I.E.V.E in life after love? | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:44 - Jan 2 with 4646 views | ElHoop |
If you take out the first four games, this is the table:
1 Norwich 48 4 44
2 Leeds 51 10 41
3 West Brom 46 7 39
4 Sheffield United 44 6 38
5 QPR 38 0 38
6 Derby 42 6 36
7 Birmingham 38 2 36
8 Stoke 35 2 33
9 Middlesbrough 42 10 32
10 Nott'm Forest 36 6 30
11 Bristol City 35 5 30
12 Aston Villa 37 8 29
13 Hull 33 4 29
14 Sheffield Weds 31 4 27
15 Swansea 33 8 25
16 Blackburn 31 6 25
17 Preston 29 4 25
18 Millwall 25 5 20
19 Brentford 27 8 19
20 Wigan 26 7 19
21 Rotherham 22 3 19
22 Reading 20 1 19
23 Ipswich 15 2 13
24 Bolton 22 10 12
OK - you can't ignore the first four games, but if you did! |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 12:45 - Jan 2 with 4513 views | runningman75 |
Any odds on QPR and Fulham swapping places? | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 16:03 - Jan 2 with 4371 views | PinnerPaul |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:29 - Jan 2 by robith |
Gosh the games come fast over Christmas don't they!
Survival: 139 - 78% of safety points from 57% of games. It's close now
Play offs: 95. Points against reading or villa would have had us over 100 for the first time. Make no mistake ladies and gentlemen, there's a long way ago, but we are statistically in the hunt.
Do you B.E.L.I.E.V.E in life after love? |
Survival is more than close IMHO.
Even if you put the bar at 52 pts - that only 13 more needed.
20 games left - we would have to lose 15 to get relegated - not going to happen.
There I've said it now! | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:57 - Jan 14 with 4115 views | robith |
Points stay static
Survival: 133
Play Offs: 91
Derby in 6th (comfortably for the purposes of this exercise) are currently tracking at 1.59 points per game - putting them on course for 73 points, which is the target we've been using
We are there or there abouts, but need one of those runs to last a little bit longer to get us above and over the trendline, not least because we're only looking at 6th at the moment
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 11:23 - Jan 21 with 3757 views | robith |
Little change this week:
Survival: 128 (though tracking at 185 vs current bottom three points) - we're about 3 wins away from me declaring I don't think it can happen. As it stands, whilst unlikely, it remains in the realms of possibility of something obnoxiously terrible that QPR *could* conjure up
Play offs: 88
Our season has been a tale of peaks and troughs - at the moment our peaks are one game too short and our troughs one game too long. We're in the hunt but we need one of those unbeaten stretches soon, and to go on just a tad longer | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 15:31 - Feb 13 with 3474 views | robith |
Solemn news from the front:
Play off: 79
Survival: 116
vs Bottom 3 currently: 167
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 11:12 - Apr 1 with 3152 views | robith |
Sorry guys, I've been super busy with work.
It's not a great update to be honest
Safety calculator: 104. Currently we would be safe, but it's inside the margin of error now. The saving grace is we're tracking at 143 vs current bottom 3 teams so we do have a headstart.
Play offs if you're interested are 73. Remember BELIEVE posting? That was a fun fortnight wasn't it.
A bucking up of ideas is required | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:11 - Apr 11 with 2841 views | robith |
Safety Index: 101 eek.
Play off index: 69 (nice)
However, that is based off pre season forecast of 50 points. Rotherham's current trajectory will get them to 43
Closely follow Rotherham's results after the weekend to check for a possible divergence from the mean | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:02 - Apr 11 with 2747 views | qprd |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:11 - Apr 11 by robith |
Safety Index: 101 eek.
Play off index: 69 (nice)
However, that is based off pre season forecast of 50 points. Rotherham's current trajectory will get them to 43
Closely follow Rotherham's results after the weekend to check for a possible divergence from the mean |
i find this a bit overcomplicated. isnt the current table itself what you should index against (i.e., QPRs points against the projected points of the 22nd ranked team) rather than an arbitrary baseline?
also, 50 points is not accurate as the staying up point
points required to stay up in the last few years (without having to rely on GD):
2018: 42
2017: 52
2016: 41
2015: 42
2014: 45 | | | |
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