| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 588316 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 13:47 - Apr 2 with 1792 views | chad |
I am sure most of us understand elementary maths and logic and did not need to attend medical school (all respect to those who did) to attain that knowledge. so perhaps someone can explain to me given
1. As I have previously said It is well documented that a cough can reach 6 metres and a sneeze 8 metres (information also in line with current MIT research on droplet and aerosol dispersion)
2. It is reported that COVID-19 has a high viral load in the throat in early stages and accepted that this is spread by droplet infection such as that projected by coughing and talking and even breathing
Why do WHO only recommend a 1 metre social distance
And even if you were observing a 2 metre social distance and a small droplet from someone’s cough caught you in the mouth what would yo prefer
1. That that person had in the first place been using a mouth covering of any sort to prevent an unexpected cough potentially infecting surfaces and others
2. If 1 not applicable, that you had been wearing a mask of any sort rather than it going straight in your mouth
Or do you think that there is no problem because a 6 metre cough cannot cross a social distance of 2 metres because of the force field it creates
Of course there are the issues of fitting and handling and supply of masks whilst not depriving the medics. But as one masked doctor at the coal face said, it is not in here that is dangerous it is out there.
Of course despite WHO insisting it is not airborne there is evidence that it is to some extent and with a considerable persistence. Now this is not me making up an experiment with my Mr Sheen, this is from evidence from people who have looked into this and have spent all the years studying in their fields (not farmers). In which case P3 masks would be needed to protect from aerosol (as was recommended by WHO for specific aerosol generating procedures in hospital). However as said owt is better than nowt.
Expert and infallible 2 different things as witnessed by (the not unsurprising) conflicting opinions and evidence from amongst them |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:50 - Apr 2 with 1786 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 13:09 - Apr 2 by Catullus |
When you say excluded many individuals from the trial does that mean he left out the patients whose results didn't match what he was arguing for?
The bit about controls, I am nowhere near an expert but I have always believed you have to have the proper controls to validate results, without controls the results are ambiguous, is that right?
AFD says that Raoult is trying to save lives but taking short cuts in these things, in my limited knowledge, could cost more lives. We need treatments that save as many as possible, not quick fixes that may cost lives needlesslybecause they were rushed. Something lacking controls, it seems to me is taking a shortcut.
Just my poorly informed opinion. |
I believe, but cannot know that his decision to try it was based on previous trials in Korea and China. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:50 - Apr 2 with 1788 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 12:51 - Apr 2 by jasper_T |
Whoa now, can't talk about reading on here. Haven't you heard that only frauds and posers on internet forums do research? The experts just know everything automatically and should be deferred to blindly, even when loads of them are disagreeing with each other all across the globe. |
:) | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:53 - Apr 2 with 1775 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 13:21 - Apr 2 by Professor |
I believe I said that many could have lived 5-10 years with their conditions, far from all. I suspect a good proportion would have died within 6 months, but others lived much longer. Equally I think that was an 'off the cuff' remark intended to show in most cases it is not fatal. |
Do you know what the percentage of people who have no underlying health issues and who have died as a direct consequence on Coronavirus ? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:57 - Apr 2 with 1765 views | CountyJim |
| Corona Virus on 11:23 - Apr 2 by chad |
Yes I was wondering that when we saw them all lined up |
Someone in work just said there's a load come from Army hospitals
Makes you wonder how many beds they got in Army then |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:59 - Apr 2 with 1758 views | Zaxx |
| Corona Virus on 13:57 - Apr 2 by CountyJim |
Someone in work just said there's a load come from Army hospitals
Makes you wonder how many beds they got in Army then |
Poor squaddies are kipping top to toe now...
Or spooning... |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:00 - Apr 2 with 1748 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 13:50 - Apr 2 by A_Fans_Dad |
I believe, but cannot know that his decision to try it was based on previous trials in Korea and China. |
Base it on? excuse my ignorance but if those trials are succesful shouldn't they be replicated not based on?
Regardless, without proper controls the results are surely flawed?
Experts can disagree on many things but surely most of them will agree that trials have to be done properly? Those that don't agree this, are they the ones that get discredited?
Don't get me wrong AFD, there are things you've posted that I agree with but when it comes to the science of it I'll be listening to Professor first and if that turns out to be wrong then it's my fault. | |
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| Corona Virus on 14:01 - Apr 2 with 1752 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 13:53 - Apr 2 by Thebus |
Do you know what the percentage of people who have no underlying health issues and who have died as a direct consequence on Coronavirus ? |
No one does. It also depends what you mean by direct. The evidence coming from the virologists in my department is that much of the mortality is due to secondary bacterial infections but this is entirely facilitated by the virus. This makes sense when compared to other animal coronavirus infections like IBV in the chicken. Clearly both the virus and bacterial secondary infection are likely to cause problems not anyone already ill, such as Eddie Large sadly, but there are clearly cases where there is not. I suspect we will on know fully from retrospective studies | | | |
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| Corona Virus on 14:02 - Apr 2 with 1742 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 13:47 - Apr 2 by chad |
I am sure most of us understand elementary maths and logic and did not need to attend medical school (all respect to those who did) to attain that knowledge. so perhaps someone can explain to me given
1. As I have previously said It is well documented that a cough can reach 6 metres and a sneeze 8 metres (information also in line with current MIT research on droplet and aerosol dispersion)
2. It is reported that COVID-19 has a high viral load in the throat in early stages and accepted that this is spread by droplet infection such as that projected by coughing and talking and even breathing
Why do WHO only recommend a 1 metre social distance
And even if you were observing a 2 metre social distance and a small droplet from someone’s cough caught you in the mouth what would yo prefer
1. That that person had in the first place been using a mouth covering of any sort to prevent an unexpected cough potentially infecting surfaces and others
2. If 1 not applicable, that you had been wearing a mask of any sort rather than it going straight in your mouth
Or do you think that there is no problem because a 6 metre cough cannot cross a social distance of 2 metres because of the force field it creates
Of course there are the issues of fitting and handling and supply of masks whilst not depriving the medics. But as one masked doctor at the coal face said, it is not in here that is dangerous it is out there.
Of course despite WHO insisting it is not airborne there is evidence that it is to some extent and with a considerable persistence. Now this is not me making up an experiment with my Mr Sheen, this is from evidence from people who have looked into this and have spent all the years studying in their fields (not farmers). In which case P3 masks would be needed to protect from aerosol (as was recommended by WHO for specific aerosol generating procedures in hospital). However as said owt is better than nowt.
Expert and infallible 2 different things as witnessed by (the not unsurprising) conflicting opinions and evidence from amongst them |
That forum that I frequent (which everybody rubbishes) has videos and links 2 making your own mask if you can't buy one, as they are doing in the Czech Republic.
Some have been very inventive, including for instance using part of a vacuum cleaner bag, which is a very good filter.
An outer layer made of material from an Umbrella and hence is waterproof.
Wire adjuster for fit to the nostrils.
All of which must be miles better than S.F.A. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:06 - Apr 2 with 1724 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 14:01 - Apr 2 by Professor |
No one does. It also depends what you mean by direct. The evidence coming from the virologists in my department is that much of the mortality is due to secondary bacterial infections but this is entirely facilitated by the virus. This makes sense when compared to other animal coronavirus infections like IBV in the chicken. Clearly both the virus and bacterial secondary infection are likely to cause problems not anyone already ill, such as Eddie Large sadly, but there are clearly cases where there is not. I suspect we will on know fully from retrospective studies |
Directly in the sense of being fit & healthy and then developing the virus. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:08 - Apr 2 with 1725 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 13:57 - Apr 2 by CountyJim |
Someone in work just said there's a load come from Army hospitals
Makes you wonder how many beds they got in Army then |
When they were in Iraq & Afghanistan they needed plenty of them, not so much now though.
They also have some of the best medics and Surgeons in the world where trauma is concerned. [Post edited 2 Apr 2020 15:32]
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| Corona Virus on 14:08 - Apr 2 with 1726 views | Highjack |
Eddie Large and the bloke who did that “Stacey’s Mom” song both killed by coronavirus today. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 14:16 - Apr 2 with 1696 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 14:00 - Apr 2 by Catullus |
Base it on? excuse my ignorance but if those trials are succesful shouldn't they be replicated not based on?
Regardless, without proper controls the results are surely flawed?
Experts can disagree on many things but surely most of them will agree that trials have to be done properly? Those that don't agree this, are they the ones that get discredited?
Don't get me wrong AFD, there are things you've posted that I agree with but when it comes to the science of it I'll be listening to Professor first and if that turns out to be wrong then it's my fault. |
Were the ones in China done properly, who knows.
But they still printed their results so that the world knew that some medicines help.
He may have directly copied them, so may the Americans in New York, the problem is we have no way of knowing for sure.
Most people dying of COVID19 offered the choice of Paracetamol or an anti- malarial that might work or an unproven antviral that might work are likely not to choose Paracetamol. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:19 - Apr 2 with 1678 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 14:01 - Apr 2 by Professor |
No one does. It also depends what you mean by direct. The evidence coming from the virologists in my department is that much of the mortality is due to secondary bacterial infections but this is entirely facilitated by the virus. This makes sense when compared to other animal coronavirus infections like IBV in the chicken. Clearly both the virus and bacterial secondary infection are likely to cause problems not anyone already ill, such as Eddie Large sadly, but there are clearly cases where there is not. I suspect we will on know fully from retrospective studies |
Also, it seems that Ferguson is saying than on average there around 600,000 deaths in the U.K. each year, and that the Coronavirus won’t really effect that average 600 k number. It’s about not overwhelming the nhs over a short space of time.
So he also seems to be saying that lives overall won’t be saved but it’s important to have the deaths spread out over a longer period of time as I’ve already said so the nhs won’t be overwhelmed. [Post edited 2 Apr 2020 14:21]
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| Corona Virus on 14:22 - Apr 2 with 1672 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 14:02 - Apr 2 by A_Fans_Dad |
That forum that I frequent (which everybody rubbishes) has videos and links 2 making your own mask if you can't buy one, as they are doing in the Czech Republic.
Some have been very inventive, including for instance using part of a vacuum cleaner bag, which is a very good filter.
An outer layer made of material from an Umbrella and hence is waterproof.
Wire adjuster for fit to the nostrils.
All of which must be miles better than S.F.A. |
Yes seen some of them, some good patterns too for better face fitting
Vac bags look good for filters. don’t know if they are P3 standard.
A word of warning, I person showing how to make these slip in filters for the washable homemade masks and someone mentioned that the material she was using (taken from folded filter inside a new air vent) contained fibreglass which if correct would be very bad for lungs. This needs to be carefully controlled. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:23 - Apr 2 with 1662 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 14:16 - Apr 2 by A_Fans_Dad |
Were the ones in China done properly, who knows.
But they still printed their results so that the world knew that some medicines help.
He may have directly copied them, so may the Americans in New York, the problem is we have no way of knowing for sure.
Most people dying of COVID19 offered the choice of Paracetamol or an anti- malarial that might work or an unproven antviral that might work are likely not to choose Paracetamol. |
They're not likely to choose anything they know won't work but choosing an unproven and not properly trialled and tested medicine could be dangerous too.
It's not like dangerous medicines (or medical advice) haven't been put out before. | |
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| Corona Virus on 14:26 - Apr 2 with 1662 views | chad |
Depends on taste ;) | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:29 - Apr 2 with 1653 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 13:53 - Apr 2 by Thebus |
Do you know what the percentage of people who have no underlying health issues and who have died as a direct consequence on Coronavirus ? |
We may need to wait for confirmation from the Guardian.
Are we counting cradle cap and zits? Seems it is mostly newborns you want to count | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:36 - Apr 2 with 1615 views | Highjack |
I’ve never really seen much of that programme but looking at those pictures I wonder how she keeps her eyebrows so perfectly sculptured and make up so professionally done whilst simultaneously fighting Boko Haram and the Taliban? | |
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| Corona Virus on 14:51 - Apr 2 with 1583 views | Flashberryjack |
| Corona Virus on 14:36 - Apr 2 by Highjack |
I’ve never really seen much of that programme but looking at those pictures I wonder how she keeps her eyebrows so perfectly sculptured and make up so professionally done whilst simultaneously fighting Boko Haram and the Taliban? |
You do know she's not a real soldier ?  |  |
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| Corona Virus on 14:53 - Apr 2 with 1581 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 14:51 - Apr 2 by Flashberryjack |
You do know she's not a real soldier ? |
Of course she isn’t. She’s a girl. She simply wouldn’t be able to hack it alongside real soldiers like Ross Kemp. | |
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| Corona Virus on 15:28 - Apr 2 with 1522 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 14:19 - Apr 2 by Thebus |
Also, it seems that Ferguson is saying than on average there around 600,000 deaths in the U.K. each year, and that the Coronavirus won’t really effect that average 600 k number. It’s about not overwhelming the nhs over a short space of time.
So he also seems to be saying that lives overall won’t be saved but it’s important to have the deaths spread out over a longer period of time as I’ve already said so the nhs won’t be overwhelmed. [Post edited 2 Apr 2020 14:21]
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Largely, though without intervention we could have seen a lot more. It's certainly not like a smallpox or the 1918 flu. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:40 - Apr 2 with 1922 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 14:23 - Apr 2 by Catullus |
They're not likely to choose anything they know won't work but choosing an unproven and not properly trialled and tested medicine could be dangerous too.
It's not like dangerous medicines (or medical advice) haven't been put out before. |
Apart from the anti-viral remdesivir the others have been around for many years and are taken by millions of people all over the world every year.
So "dangerous medicines" they are not, they have very well known side affects that have to be taken note of, but that is what doctors do when treating patients. | | | |
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