| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 587214 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 17:21 - Apr 1 with 1938 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 17:17 - Apr 1 by Thebus |
That depends on who’s model you believe.
There are many scientists/ doctors who disagree with the model that the government are following. |
No, it doesn’t.
There are an extraordinary number of cases in hospital at the moment. That’s why we’ve just opened the Nightingale. I’m not talking about deaths. I’m talking admissions and those requiring a high degree of medical intervention.
It makes no sense that millions were infected a month or two ago without it being seen in hospitals.
The ONLY explanation that would work for that is if a mild strain passed through, followed by a far more aggressive strain. And there is nothing to support that. Nothing. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:28 - Apr 1 with 1909 views | Scotia |
| Corona Virus on 17:21 - Apr 1 by JACKMANANDBOY |
Don't worry there are lots of pandemic experts on here. |
You don't need to be an expert in anything to realise he is spouting a load of rubbish.
I wish he was correct but he obviously isn't. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:29 - Apr 1 with 1899 views | Scotia |
| Corona Virus on 17:02 - Apr 1 by londonlisa2001 |
They are, apparently, doing a lot of analysis on hospital admissions, calls to 111 and so on.
The latest figures are showing ‘green shoots of improvement’ according to the scientists. Hopefully that continues and these horrific numbers will start to decline in the next week or so.
There’s a report from London School of HTM today that suggests the R0 number has moved from 2.6 to 0.68 since lockdown. That’s great news if true. |
Again I'm not an expert but that R0 figure means it isn't self sufficient doesn't it? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:30 - Apr 1 with 1897 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 14:01 - Apr 1 by CountyJim |
I was tested Saturday morning just had my result back positive
Ridiculous the length of time considering Bojo had his results in 6 hours pathetic |
Hope it clears up soon Jim. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:31 - Apr 1 with 1896 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 17:02 - Apr 1 by londonlisa2001 |
They are, apparently, doing a lot of analysis on hospital admissions, calls to 111 and so on.
The latest figures are showing ‘green shoots of improvement’ according to the scientists. Hopefully that continues and these horrific numbers will start to decline in the next week or so.
There’s a report from London School of HTM today that suggests the R0 number has moved from 2.6 to 0.68 since lockdown. That’s great news if true. |
Let’s hope for that Lisa. Clearly we are
Still going to see rises for a week or so yet, but if it’s below that magic
1 then an end is in sight. I worked at LSHTM when I first graduated (before PhD). I love that building. Had a brilliant bar back then too. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:31 - Apr 1 with 1889 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 17:21 - Apr 1 by londonlisa2001 |
No, it doesn’t.
There are an extraordinary number of cases in hospital at the moment. That’s why we’ve just opened the Nightingale. I’m not talking about deaths. I’m talking admissions and those requiring a high degree of medical intervention.
It makes no sense that millions were infected a month or two ago without it being seen in hospitals.
The ONLY explanation that would work for that is if a mild strain passed through, followed by a far more aggressive strain. And there is nothing to support that. Nothing. |
What is the overall ratio of people being infected and those who end up in hospital ?
Even according to Professor Neil Ferguson figures that the death rate for the U.K. will be around 20,000, but he also says 2/3 of the 20,000 would have died anyway. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:32 - Apr 1 with 1890 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 17:29 - Apr 1 by Scotia |
Again I'm not an expert but that R0 figure means it isn't self sufficient doesn't it? |
I’m not any where near having any knowledge let alone be8ng an expert, but yes, if it falls below 1 it dies out is my understanding. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:35 - Apr 1 with 1883 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 16:33 - Apr 1 by Thebus |
So you agree with the figures that professor Neil Ferguson has already stated ? |
Broadly. We will probably hit 5k over the weekend
If, as Lisa suggests R0 is now below 1 then new cases will begin to slow next week, but probably will get to 10k by midweek. It’s then a question of how quick the decline is and the number of people who are immune ( the great unknown) | | | |
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| Corona Virus on 17:39 - Apr 1 with 1873 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 17:29 - Apr 1 by Scotia |
Again I'm not an expert but that R0 figure means it isn't self sufficient doesn't it? |
Basically. A value of 0.68 means each case infects less than one other. Or roughly there will be two new cases for every three. The two lead to one new case until the spread peters out. There will be new cases but will fall away.
Really crucial we keep lockdown until the cycle is broken | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:41 - Apr 1 with 1860 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 17:28 - Apr 1 by Scotia |
You don't need to be an expert in anything to realise he is spouting a load of rubbish.
I wish he was correct but he obviously isn't. |
I’m just repeating what Dr John Lee said during his article in the Spectator.
Whether you like it or not, but a lot of the science involved in this pandemic is guesswork, especially trying to forecast the figures. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:46 - Apr 1 with 1759 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 17:35 - Apr 1 by Professor |
Broadly. We will probably hit 5k over the weekend
If, as Lisa suggests R0 is now below 1 then new cases will begin to slow next week, but probably will get to 10k by midweek. It’s then a question of how quick the decline is and the number of people who are immune ( the great unknown) |
Ok. Thanks for reply. Do you also agree with Professor Ferguson when he says of the 20,000 possible deaths, 2/3 would have passed away anyway.
Also why are they counting people who had the virus and have died, even though many of them haven’t actually died from Coronavirus, as Professor Ferguson states. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:50 - Apr 1 with 1754 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 17:35 - Apr 1 by Professor |
Broadly. We will probably hit 5k over the weekend
If, as Lisa suggests R0 is now below 1 then new cases will begin to slow next week, but probably will get to 10k by midweek. It’s then a question of how quick the decline is and the number of people who are immune ( the great unknown) |
In regards to the unknown immune figure, this is one area that the government have been caught asleep. They should have been ordering millions of the antibody tests possibly 2 months ago. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:56 - Apr 1 with 1746 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 18:46 - Apr 1 by Thebus |
Ok. Thanks for reply. Do you also agree with Professor Ferguson when he says of the 20,000 possible deaths, 2/3 would have passed away anyway.
Also why are they counting people who had the virus and have died, even though many of them haven’t actually died from Coronavirus, as Professor Ferguson states. |
Of course Ferguson is wrong.
100% of them are going to die anyway, tomorrow, next week,next month, next year, in 10 years or 20 years.
It is the one certainty in life.
They count them because they weren't actually dying before they got COVID19.
You still don't get the fact that the vast majority of people do not die of Flu, it is the complications that kill them and so it is with COVID19. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:02 - Apr 1 with 1732 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 18:56 - Apr 1 by A_Fans_Dad |
Of course Ferguson is wrong.
100% of them are going to die anyway, tomorrow, next week,next month, next year, in 10 years or 20 years.
It is the one certainty in life.
They count them because they weren't actually dying before they got COVID19.
You still don't get the fact that the vast majority of people do not die of Flu, it is the complications that kill them and so it is with COVID19. |
What are you talking about lol.
These 2/3 people who Professor Ferguson is talking about are/were dying regardless of Coronovirus. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:19 - Apr 1 with 1713 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 19:02 - Apr 1 by Thebus |
What are you talking about lol.
These 2/3 people who Professor Ferguson is talking about are/were dying regardless of Coronovirus. |
Then he is wrong, underlying illness is not "dying from".
Take one of the highest of those underlying illnesses, Hypertension, many people have hypertension for decades and with suitable medication are not "dying" and do not normally die of it.
It is strokes, heart or kidney failure that actually kills them caused by the hypertension. I should know because it killed both my parents with strokes.
How about Diabetes, another of the high ones, many millions of people live their whole lives with it and it has horrible symptoms, but with medical care and a good diet they can live almost normal lives. They are not dying from it.
If they have both COVID19 will kill them even quicker.
I am beginning to wonder just how old you are. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:21 - Apr 1 with 1708 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 17:21 - Apr 1 by londonlisa2001 |
No, it doesn’t.
There are an extraordinary number of cases in hospital at the moment. That’s why we’ve just opened the Nightingale. I’m not talking about deaths. I’m talking admissions and those requiring a high degree of medical intervention.
It makes no sense that millions were infected a month or two ago without it being seen in hospitals.
The ONLY explanation that would work for that is if a mild strain passed through, followed by a far more aggressive strain. And there is nothing to support that. Nothing. |
According to a report 50% of people from Iceland who tested positive for the Coronavirus showed no symptoms at all. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:21 - Apr 1 with 1709 views | Garyjack |
| Corona Virus on 18:50 - Apr 1 by Thebus |
In regards to the unknown immune figure, this is one area that the government have been caught asleep. They should have been ordering millions of the antibody tests possibly 2 months ago. |
You do realise that a 'hopefully' reliable antibody test was was only approved just a few days ago yes? And besides, the first case within the UK was detected on the 28th Feb! So, to recap, you think the government should have ordered millions of an antibody test which didn't exist, on a virus that didn't exist.  |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:25 - Apr 1 with 1686 views | Dr_Winston |
| Corona Virus on 19:21 - Apr 1 by Garyjack |
You do realise that a 'hopefully' reliable antibody test was was only approved just a few days ago yes? And besides, the first case within the UK was detected on the 28th Feb! So, to recap, you think the government should have ordered millions of an antibody test which didn't exist, on a virus that didn't exist. |
Not including the fact that every other country in the World is also desperate for the same thing, using the same materials, from mostly the same manufacturers. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Corona Virus on 19:28 - Apr 1 with 1675 views | CountyJim |
| Corona Virus on 19:21 - Apr 1 by Thebus |
According to a report 50% of people from Iceland who tested positive for the Coronavirus showed no symptoms at all. |
What about Aldi |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:28 - Apr 1 with 1673 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 19:21 - Apr 1 by Garyjack |
You do realise that a 'hopefully' reliable antibody test was was only approved just a few days ago yes? And besides, the first case within the UK was detected on the 28th Feb! So, to recap, you think the government should have ordered millions of an antibody test which didn't exist, on a virus that didn't exist. |
Person to person transfer was still being confirmed in February!
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30607-3/fullt |  |
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| Corona Virus on 19:29 - Apr 1 with 1664 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 19:21 - Apr 1 by Garyjack |
You do realise that a 'hopefully' reliable antibody test was was only approved just a few days ago yes? And besides, the first case within the UK was detected on the 28th Feb! So, to recap, you think the government should have ordered millions of an antibody test which didn't exist, on a virus that didn't exist. |
You don’t have to be an expert to realise that when the Coronavirus was taking hold in China, that it probably would only be a matter of time before it started to spread across the globe.
Maybe if the government had acted then (during the initial outbreak in China) the antibody tests would have been ready a while ago.
It’s called forward planning..... | | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:30 - Apr 1 with 1654 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 19:28 - Apr 1 by CountyJim |
What about Aldi |
They are fine because they are German. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:37 - Apr 1 with 1630 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 19:29 - Apr 1 by Thebus |
You don’t have to be an expert to realise that when the Coronavirus was taking hold in China, that it probably would only be a matter of time before it started to spread across the globe.
Maybe if the government had acted then (during the initial outbreak in China) the antibody tests would have been ready a while ago.
It’s called forward planning..... |
The position in similar in France, Spain, Holland, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Portugal etc. etc. etc. etc.
This is an international issue starting with a cover up in China that cost everyone a couple of months. | |
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| Corona Virus on 19:46 - Apr 1 with 1607 views | Garyjack |
| Corona Virus on 19:29 - Apr 1 by Thebus |
You don’t have to be an expert to realise that when the Coronavirus was taking hold in China, that it probably would only be a matter of time before it started to spread across the globe.
Maybe if the government had acted then (during the initial outbreak in China) the antibody tests would have been ready a while ago.
It’s called forward planning..... |
On the 23rd January the UK became aware that 571 people had been infected by a novel coronavirus in Wuhan that had caused 17 deaths. There would be no indication whatsoever at the time that it would spread into a global pandemic.
Yet at that time you think the government should have immediately produced an antibody for Covid19 and produced them in their millions?........You're a beaut, you truly are! | | | |
| Corona Virus on 20:06 - Apr 1 with 2062 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 19:46 - Apr 1 by Garyjack |
On the 23rd January the UK became aware that 571 people had been infected by a novel coronavirus in Wuhan that had caused 17 deaths. There would be no indication whatsoever at the time that it would spread into a global pandemic.
Yet at that time you think the government should have immediately produced an antibody for Covid19 and produced them in their millions?........You're a beaut, you truly are! |
Of course they should have known after all they have scientific advisors who no doubt would have taken an interest in the initial outbreak.
I read last week that Germany were gearing up for the virus in January, so what you say is a load of nonsense 😂
Also look how prepared South Korea were compared to us.....forward planning. | | | |
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