| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 575403 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 17:39 - Mar 22 with 1928 views | Joe_bradshaw |
Germany advising people to stock up on sausages and cheese.
This is now a wurst kase scenario. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 17:39 - Mar 22 with 1928 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 17:33 - Mar 22 by exiledclaseboy |
Deputy chief medical officer just said that Italy’s fatality rate is 10%, ours is 4%. She also warned against drawing conclusions from comparing data from different countries. |
It’s worth pointing out that she specifically said the death rate will look higher than it really is because of the people we are testing (we are not picking up milder cases).
She reiterated we are still expecting a rate overall of c. 1%. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:44 - Mar 22 with 1902 views | Captain_Sham |
| Corona Virus on 15:08 - Mar 22 by exiledclaseboy |
Jim, you’re talking shit. The advice is to stay in as much as possible. |
Stay in if you possible can - BoJos exact words in his latest briefing. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 17:46 - Mar 22 with 1888 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Corona Virus on 17:44 - Mar 22 by Captain_Sham |
Stay in if you possible can - BoJos exact words in his latest briefing. |
Jim knows better. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 17:48 - Mar 22 with 1876 views | sainthelens |
Think you'll find it's now inevitable there will be total lockdown within 2/3 weeks. Boris dressing it up that everyone must adhere to advice, when clearly his tone is its definitely coming. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:54 - Mar 22 with 1842 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
Stay in. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 17:55 - Mar 22 with 1834 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 17:44 - Mar 22 by Captain_Sham |
Stay in if you possible can - BoJos exact words in his latest briefing. |
It’s completely obvious what they’re saying.
You can go and get some fresh air for mental health purposes, stay a safe distance etc.
But, stay inside most of the time unless it is essential that you don’t. Avoid gatherings. Inside and out. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:01 - Mar 22 with 1806 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 17:36 - Mar 22 by PozuelosSideys |
Yeah i saw that, am watching. Its a different metric i was looking at though. Shes talking about number of infections divided by the fatalities which gives you the fatality rate. Im looking at flat number of deaths related to the virus. It would suggest we have a higher infection rate -14 days if she is correct.
The source is legit - ‘front door’ clinician at a major London hospital. |
The day after Italy, on a flat measure, recorded 233 deaths (as the UK did yesterday), they recorded 366 deaths.
Today we recorded 281. Too many, but it’s not true to say we are matching Italy. | | | |
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| Corona Virus on 18:01 - Mar 22 with 1803 views | lifelong |
Not tough enough.
Lock down is needed now. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:02 - Mar 22 with 1800 views | Joe_bradshaw |
We're staying in except for a bit of exercise to walk the dog. I go around midnight when there's no one about.
Isolation is difficult when you can't get a food delivery though. We got a click and collect so it was in, grab your order, out, don't touch anything you don't have to, dispose of gloves and wash. I could be in the SAS. | |
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| Corona Virus on 18:03 - Mar 22 with 1791 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 18:02 - Mar 22 by Joe_bradshaw |
We're staying in except for a bit of exercise to walk the dog. I go around midnight when there's no one about.
Isolation is difficult when you can't get a food delivery though. We got a click and collect so it was in, grab your order, out, don't touch anything you don't have to, dispose of gloves and wash. I could be in the SAS. |
Hope you’d be a more responsible member of the SAS than that complete d*ckhead Ant Middleton. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:03 - Mar 22 with 1791 views | magicdaps10 |
Has there been an indication on a % chance of getting the virus?
I know it was said somewhere that 80% could get it, is that realistic!? |  |
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| Corona Virus on 18:17 - Mar 22 with 1734 views | CountyJim |
Utter bolloxs he said if you use common sense and go for walk etc then that's fine but if people stop using common sense then the government will have to step in i have a wonderful canal network on my door step its pretty easy to use common sense |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:17 - Mar 22 with 1734 views | monmouth |
| Corona Virus on 18:01 - Mar 22 by lifelong |
Not tough enough.
Lock down is needed now. |
What does lock down actually mean? I would go off my head without a daily (solitary) run or walk now, and my nurse wife clearly has to go out. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 18:23 - Mar 22 with 1715 views | sainthelens |
| Corona Virus on 18:17 - Mar 22 by monmouth |
What does lock down actually mean? I would go off my head without a daily (solitary) run or walk now, and my nurse wife clearly has to go out. |
Anyone on the streets not going for food/pharmacy will probably get fined. Italy have made people carry forms to show police to say they are....but not quite sure how that works.
I'm living literally 50 yards from singleton park...so would hope to sneak in for a jog. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:27 - Mar 22 with 1703 views | ploppy |
| Corona Virus on 17:25 - Mar 22 by londonlisa2001 |
I find Dr Jenny Harries to be hugely impressive in these conferences. |
Indeed. I'd just like her, once in a while, in answer to the same inane questions from journos, to say "are you thick?", or "did you not hear the answer I've given already", or "it's social distancing, stupid". | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:28 - Mar 22 with 1698 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 17:55 - Mar 22 by londonlisa2001 |
It’s completely obvious what they’re saying.
You can go and get some fresh air for mental health purposes, stay a safe distance etc.
But, stay inside most of the time unless it is essential that you don’t. Avoid gatherings. Inside and out. |
Easy to understand. | |
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| Corona Virus on 18:29 - Mar 22 with 1696 views | lifelong |
| Corona Virus on 18:17 - Mar 22 by monmouth |
What does lock down actually mean? I would go off my head without a daily (solitary) run or walk now, and my nurse wife clearly has to go out. |
A lot of people will listen to the advice given but unfortunately a lot of people will not.
Thousands of people this weekend have been flocking to coastal resorts and country parks, there’s something wrong with them. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:31 - Mar 22 with 1692 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 18:27 - Mar 22 by ploppy |
Indeed. I'd just like her, once in a while, in answer to the same inane questions from journos, to say "are you thick?", or "did you not hear the answer I've given already", or "it's social distancing, stupid". |
Many journalists haved proved themselves to be lacking. Often asking questions that have just been answered as you say. | |
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| Corona Virus on 18:35 - Mar 22 with 1676 views | sainthelens |
| Corona Virus on 18:29 - Mar 22 by lifelong |
A lot of people will listen to the advice given but unfortunately a lot of people will not.
Thousands of people this weekend have been flocking to coastal resorts and country parks, there’s something wrong with them. |
Me and mrs SH went for half hour walk through the park earlier. Couldn't believe the amount of oap s there. Like some kind of geriatric death march. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:43 - Mar 22 with 1651 views | ploppy |
| Corona Virus on 18:03 - Mar 22 by magicdaps10 |
Has there been an indication on a % chance of getting the virus?
I know it was said somewhere that 80% could get it, is that realistic!? |
If you stay indoors and don't interact with anyone, your chance of getting the virus is 0%. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:44 - Mar 22 with 1646 views | sainthelens |
| Corona Virus on 18:43 - Mar 22 by ploppy |
If you stay indoors and don't interact with anyone, your chance of getting the virus is 0%. |
Benny is therefore immune. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:47 - Mar 22 with 1633 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Corona Virus on 18:01 - Mar 22 by londonlisa2001 |
The day after Italy, on a flat measure, recorded 233 deaths (as the UK did yesterday), they recorded 366 deaths.
Today we recorded 281. Too many, but it’s not true to say we are matching Italy. |
Yeah. Sorry wasnt clear.
If you assume Italy is 14 days ahead of us, and compare daily rate fatalities, then we are L4L. All a bit morbid tbh, but eg:
+/- 14 days
Ita UK
22/03/2020 Total Per Head Total Per Head
21/03/2020 4825 793 n+1 n+1
20/03/2020 4032 627 n+2 n+2
19/03/2020 3405 427 n+3 n+3
18/03/2020 2978 475 n+4 n+4
17/03/2020 2503 345 n+5 n+5
16/03/2020 2158 349 n+6 n+6
15/03/2020 1809 368 n+7 n+7
14/03/2020 1441 175 n+8 n+8
13/03/2020 1266 250 n+9 n+9
12/03/2020 1016 189 n+10 n+10
11/03/2020 827 196 n+11 n+11
10/03/2020 631 168 n+12 n+12
09/03/2020 463 97 n+13 n+13
08/03/2020 366 133 n+14 n+14
07/03/2020 233 36 233 56
06/03/2020 197 49 177 33
05/03/2020 148 41 144 40
04/03/2020 107 28 104 33
03/03/2020 79 27 71 16
02/03/2020 52 11 55 20
01/03/2020 41 12 35 14
29/02/2020 29 8 21 10
28/02/2020 21 4 11 1
27/02/2020 17 5 10 2
26/02/2020 12 1 8 2
25/02/2020 11 4 6 1
24/02/2020 7 7 5 5 |  |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Corona Virus on 19:01 - Mar 22 with 1590 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 18:01 - Mar 22 by londonlisa2001 |
The day after Italy, on a flat measure, recorded 233 deaths (as the UK did yesterday), they recorded 366 deaths.
Today we recorded 281. Too many, but it’s not true to say we are matching Italy. |
Can't compare any system on 1 days data, need 10 to 12 data points as a bare minimum for any meaningful statistical analysis. [Post edited 22 Mar 2020 19:18]
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| Corona Virus on 19:08 - Mar 22 with 1555 views | Kilkennyjack |
Well done everyone involved in this. |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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