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Who will be watching? First one kicks off in 24 hours time.
The Democrats have pulled Joe back from his campaign trail recently to get him prepared, so hopefully it will be a decent exchange.
Unfortunately they don’t seem to have great confidence as they have spent the last month looking for any dirt they can dig up so Joe can use if he gets stuck.
It’s no coincidence that this vote influencing Facebook algorithm story is being shamelessly and inaccurately made into a race issue on the eve of the debates. So transparent and disingenuous, it’s a shame politics has come to this on this level where black people are being used in this way to score political points. I would be furious if I was them, but it does seem a lot of people are not falling for this one and calling it out for what it is.
People finally seem to be getting wise to this political race baiting which is refreshing to see.
It’s also telling that in the week of the debate they try and paint Trump as a tax evasion offender. I think that’s what they wanted the tax returns to show, they seem to have got annoyed when it turns out his tax returns were fine in accordance to what his companies profits were - but decided to run with it anyway. Any news is good news in their mind as it’s another thing Joe can use when in a tricky spot.
But I hope the discussions remain political and doesn’t turn into some form of gossip peddling reality TV episode.
Although I think there should be some kind of drinking game involved if it does turn that way, how many times Biden completely loses his thread of thought and blurts out “I mean, think about it...” you have to take a shot.
I will be watching with great interest anyway.
This post has been edited by an administrator
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 01:59 - Nov 3 by Jack123
I hope Trump does win,because I just don't like the other side.. Biden is a joke, and the rest of the democrats are scum.
[Post edited 3 Nov 2020 2:24]
“Trump rose because THEY had failed.”
That’s exactly right, there’s no argument to be had. Whether Trump wins or loses in the next few days the seething discontent for which he became a lightning rod isn’t going anywhere, it will continue to grow until sooner rather than later it bursts into flames. As Bannon said “it’s as sure as night follows day.”
An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it.
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🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 13:04 - Nov 3 with 1434 views
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 12:15 - Nov 3 by onehunglow
People do no wish Trump to get another term a he is seen as
arrogant,devious immoral,which more or less describes JFK.
He gives off terrible vibes to those outside America especially with his ignorance of world affairs and indeed countries.
Biden,to me,looks a descripit rather forelorn figure who is up against the biggest political bully in generations and one who really should be smashed at the polls. Hillary Clinton was just about the worse candidate to stand against Trump but Biden is little better.
What a choice.What a state America i on to have 2 dullards like this on the cusp of such power.
"especially with his ignorance of world affairs and indeed countries. "
For someone so ignorant of world affairs he has still achieved more than any other President as far as world peace is concerned. He also exposed China for what it is to the American people. It is amazing that because he is not a politician or an ambassador, who previoulsy failed, that people think he is dumb.
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🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 15:13 - Nov 3 with 1393 views
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 15:13 - Nov 3 by Professor
And now back to where it was yesterday.
Indeed, this is Election Day.
Keep an eye on it, it will tell you far more than anything Nathaniel “error bound” Silver tells you.
Ask Hillary.
As a side note. You seemed to have done a disappeared act after getting the Planned Parentood discussion spectacularly wrong. Understandable, but haven’t seen an apology in between then and now. (Not sure you apologised for your comments prior to that either, did you?)
I don’t mind but it’s odd that you join a discussion without acknowledging your behaviour the last time you tried to offer something. I can only hope you are going to behave now you have reappeared.
[Post edited 3 Nov 2020 18:10]
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 17:42 - Nov 3 by Dr_Parnassus
Indeed, this is Election Day.
Keep an eye on it, it will tell you far more than anything Nathaniel “error bound” Silver tells you.
Ask Hillary.
As a side note. You seemed to have done a disappeared act after getting the Planned Parentood discussion spectacularly wrong. Understandable, but haven’t seen an apology in between then and now. (Not sure you apologised for your comments prior to that either, did you?)
I don’t mind but it’s odd that you join a discussion without acknowledging your behaviour the last time you tried to offer something. I can only hope you are going to behave now you have reappeared.
[Post edited 3 Nov 2020 18:10]
Biden 1.44 now. I agree PA is the key, if Trump holds on in the south. Still would suggest a Trump win and a Biden landslide are pretty equal probability.
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🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 18:21 - Nov 3 with 1311 views
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 18:16 - Nov 3 by Professor
Biden 1.44 now. I agree PA is the key, if Trump holds on in the south. Still would suggest a Trump win and a Biden landslide are pretty equal probability.
What do you consider a landslide?
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
I make Biden a 1.70 favourite which gives him a 58% chance.
Any model that gives a 90% or 97% chance should be rejected out of hand on that basis alone. There are far too many unknown quantities, we have tens of millions of people that are voting this year that haven previously, they are unknown quantities.
PA is also a tricky one to factor in as the Democratic run state has changed the rules to favour Biden with allowing votes to be counted long after Election Day without requiring signature matching or date mark on the envelope. So it’s hard to judge the effects of that.
Anything around a 60:40 Biden chance sounds about right to me. But in terms of being a landslide, I would only consider a landslide if the winning candidate got 60%+ of the popular vote, which is incredibly unlikely to happen on either side.
So given that I give Trump a 40% chance of winning, I can’t agree that it’s the same chance as a landslide Biden victory which I would give around a 5% chance to.
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 18:27 - Nov 3 by Highjack
Businesses across the USA are boarding up in anticipation of mostly peaceful violence, burning and looting from the mostly peaceful protesters.
I love the way the media have spun it too.
Everybody knows everything is being boarded up incase Trump wins and the left throw a hissy fit.
The media seem to be focusing on these mythical “white supremacist groups” causing a scene if Biden wins. Pathetic really, it’s not as if the left have been attacking the country for months on end, daily. I think their threat levels may be slightly different somehow.
The left will take a Trump defeat incredibly badly, we all know that. I’m not sure the same can be said the other way around, it will then be a focus on Trump 2024. As I have said previously, one side favours discussion and logic - the other favours emotion and personal attack (verbal or physical). That much is obvious even in the discussions on this site.
(Edit to add - it would be fascinating however, if there are a handful of idiots that act up should Biden win... and how the media would portray them and compare to how they have portrayed the 7 month siege of American cities. Hopefully we don’t get to find out but I think we all know the answer anyway...).
[Post edited 3 Nov 2020 18:47]
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
A lot depends on what metrics you use to make your prediction. If you use polls then you are not likely to be correct based on past experiences. If you use the knowledge that the President's followers use then he is due to win. But they managed to fool themselves in the 2018 elections because the some of the RINOs sold them out. They use "on the ground" data, ie size of rallies, and disposition of those attending, the size of motorcades, boatcades, endorsements by police, fire, emergency workers, Army vets, the walkaway movement and various others that have not supported Republicans in the past. But they are very worried about "lost postal votes", actual cheating at the poll count etc. There has already been rule breaking by the Democrats, preventing count moderators entering the polling stations. Electioneering inside the polling stations, which is against the law. Signs and people and posters too close to the polling stations, all the usual shenanighans used by the Democrats in the past.
It will be very interesting to see how it pans out.
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🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 21:19 - Nov 3 with 1229 views
Was always suspected to happen, which is why Democrats were pushing for early voting.
Between big tech, social and main stream media offensive, the changing of voting rules and the vote harvesting we saw in Ilhan Omar’s patch - if Trump can come through against all that it may be the single greatest Presidential achievement of all time.
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 22:11 - Nov 3 by Joe_bradshaw
Biden doesn't think he's won FLA.
V good news for Trump.
Yes there is a huge confidence surge in Florida for the Republicans. State market there has gone from 1.85 to 1.57.
I had Florida for Trump anyway, playing Despacito on your phone really doesn’t cut it unfortunately. However the issue looks to be Pennsylvania which is moving towards Biden.
I think the winner of Pennsylvania wins the election (assuming there are no huge shocks elsewhere, which is possible).
This is the problem with models such as Nate Silver’s. Once they are wrong then they are usually wrong across the board. Nate has Florida for the Democrats (69 out of 100 times) which needless to say looks way off. The issue then is due to the amount of states, that error is magnified by each state causing an error snowball effect. That’s why such figures as 90% and 97% are clearly nonsense and were shown to be last time round.
That’s the issue with making out the other side is a racist, fascist or whatever other pejorative that gets bandied around without any form of reasoning. Not to mention the violence and persecution to his supporters. You can’t partake in that and then expect anywhere close to accurate polling, people just aren’t willing to state where their political views lie because of the false narrative the media and democrats have attached to it in order to put a faux social pressure on the way people vote.
Should be a fairly close and competitive race. I doubt anyone will get more than 55% in the popular vote, anyone expecting a landslide (60%+) is probably not in tune with what’s going on.
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
Just checking in on US Election night... Btw Trump is a c@nt....a horrible individual who has spent his whole life being a c@nt...and yet people still want to vote for him. We often jest about the Third World etc...we are no different. Trump is worse than anything that they can serve up...he really is an evil man.
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 18:32 - Nov 3 by Dr_Parnassus
I make Biden a 1.70 favourite which gives him a 58% chance.
Any model that gives a 90% or 97% chance should be rejected out of hand on that basis alone. There are far too many unknown quantities, we have tens of millions of people that are voting this year that haven previously, they are unknown quantities.
PA is also a tricky one to factor in as the Democratic run state has changed the rules to favour Biden with allowing votes to be counted long after Election Day without requiring signature matching or date mark on the envelope. So it’s hard to judge the effects of that.
Anything around a 60:40 Biden chance sounds about right to me. But in terms of being a landslide, I would only consider a landslide if the winning candidate got 60%+ of the popular vote, which is incredibly unlikely to happen on either side.
So given that I give Trump a 40% chance of winning, I can’t agree that it’s the same chance as a landslide Biden victory which I would give around a 5% chance to.
You don't half waffle some shit.
Firstly, traditionally the count can take weeks...it often did in the past.
Secondly, the extension sought and granted legally, was to enable the votes cast to be counted when they knew that the us Postal service would fail. A TRUMP appointee has hamstrung the postal service. DeJoy is the very first Postmaster to be selected from outside the US postal service... he is a Trump donor.
"Mail delays even worse across Pa., with 42% of Philly mail taking longer than 5 days"
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 22:36 - Nov 3 by DJack
You don't half waffle some shit.
Firstly, traditionally the count can take weeks...it often did in the past.
Secondly, the extension sought and granted legally, was to enable the votes cast to be counted when they knew that the us Postal service would fail. A TRUMP appointee has hamstrung the postal service. DeJoy is the very first Postmaster to be selected from outside the US postal service... he is a Trump donor.
"Mail delays even worse across Pa., with 42% of Philly mail taking longer than 5 days"
Is this another post you fail to understand? I wasn’t making a point of delays, delays are normal and are counted with verified signature and had to be submitted before a certain date (data stamped). This year no signature is required for matching and no date stamp is needed.
You have a habit of not knowing how to respond so reply with the emotional and baseless “talking sh*t” or whatever thoughtless bile you blurt out.
[Post edited 3 Nov 2020 22:55]
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
Wow that’s some top lefty links you got there. I was about to say all that’s missing from that bingo list is CNN... then noticed the last one was a CNN “article”.
HOUSE!!
Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 22:32 - Nov 3 by Thrasher6
Just checking in on US Election night... Btw Trump is a c@nt....a horrible individual who has spent his whole life being a c@nt...and yet people still want to vote for him. We often jest about the Third World etc...we are no different. Trump is worse than anything that they can serve up...he really is an evil man.
Thank you for your enlightened comments.
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🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 23:01 - Nov 3 with 1126 views
🇺🇸Presidential debate round 1 - “Matchday thread”🇺🇸 on 22:51 - Nov 3 by Dr_Parnassus
Which part is “waffle or sh*t” then?
Is this another post you fail to understand? I wasn’t making a point of delays, delays are normal and are counted with verified signature and had to be submitted before a certain date (data stamped). This year no signature is required for matching and no date stamp is needed.
You have a habit of not knowing how to respond so reply with the emotional and baseless “talking sh*t” or whatever thoughtless bile you blurt out.
[Post edited 3 Nov 2020 22:55]
Previously the mail (ballot) could take three days now it's five. The date stamp bit is to allow for the vagaries of a partially defunded postal service.
I don't know about the signature bit
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan
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