| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 574592 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 13:25 - Mar 17 with 2563 views | dickythorpe |
| Corona Virus on 13:22 - Mar 17 by CountyJim |
Don't know if anyone has been listening to radio 2 they where on about a doctor in his 90s who basically said back in his day they wouldn't have a clue what the virus was until a couple years later they would have just written it off as a bad year for flu |
People were tougher Jim back then plus we lived off the land and didn't have all this consumerism.
Plus authority was respected and stricter. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:28 - Mar 17 with 2553 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 12:46 - Mar 17 by ladyjack |
What that the Chinese did not isolate, take people away to be tested and if positive then isolated them in specialist clincs, dormitories, converted gyms etc ?
I have little charge on my phone to view the program. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 12:48]
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Well there is evidence is that families stayed at home, whilst more affected people were moved to caring environments and the very sick into intensive care as outlined in this clip. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 14:19 - Mar 17 with 2487 views | theloneranger |
| Corona Virus on 12:05 - Mar 17 by londonlisa2001 |
Niall Ferguson is in charge of the team that provided numbers based on incorrect assumptions in the first place though? At least, not incorrect as such, but have changed because of different data coming out of Italy.
I have read some reports today that suggest that the UK measures are correct timing for London and may in fact, still be a week early for the rest of the country for maximum effect.
They can’t win on that as it has to be done at the same time I would imagine, albeit Italy and Spain tried to separate different parts of the country.
What is clear from the report (bearing in mind that other reports are being published - this is only one of the models that have been used throughout) is that each of these measures has an effect, cumulatively they have a huge effect, but the time needed is almost unfathomable.
The testing point is an interesting one. I understood from the CMO that we are going to be focusing on antibody testing as no one is accurately picking up asymptomatic numbers apart from Korea (and even there its only a % of the population being tested) And that they feel that will be more useful?
Not sure on the tens of thousands? The report gives numbers well below that ?
The real disgrace for me, is not the timing (as who knows) but the lack of equipment. The ventilators issue should have been dealt with 6 weeks ago, not now.
And the biggest concern is the timescale - 18 months is just unfeasible, [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 12:09]
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When it comes to ventilators we really are on the back foot.
Germany had already ordered 10,000 new ventilators, which will take approx 12 months to make. Italy had already asked its only domestic supplier to up their output to 500 per month, up from 125. The Italian army are supplying technicians to help their production.
The NHS has only approx 5900 ventilators and in a worst case scenario will require 3 times that amount. We are so far behind that Boris is now asking firms like Rolls-Royce, Airbus and Jaguar Land Rover etc, to help make basic functional ventilators. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 14:28]
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| Everyday above ground ... Is a good day! 😎 |
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| Corona Virus on 14:38 - Mar 17 with 2437 views | Joe_bradshaw |
Numerous critics of the Chinese Authorities have vanished without trace.
Planet Swans wouldn't exist in China if posters were critical of the authorities. It's easier to enforce lockdown of the population of a country when every citizen is glancing over their shoulder in case they are disappeared. A totalitarian state with the worst human rights record on the planet is at a huge advantage.
Otherwise they're great, the Chinese... |  |
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| Corona Virus on 14:50 - Mar 17 with 2416 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 14:38 - Mar 17 by Joe_bradshaw |
Numerous critics of the Chinese Authorities have vanished without trace.
Planet Swans wouldn't exist in China if posters were critical of the authorities. It's easier to enforce lockdown of the population of a country when every citizen is glancing over their shoulder in case they are disappeared. A totalitarian state with the worst human rights record on the planet is at a huge advantage.
Otherwise they're great, the Chinese... |
Yes, absolutely. Like I said, things would be different if the Chinese had been open from the very beginning.
Ladyjack wants to blame Bojo and ok, he's making mistakes, getting things wrong, but putting it all at Bojo's door really is ignoring that the horse had already bolted. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 14:55 - Mar 17 with 2404 views | NotLoyal |
| Corona Virus on 20:44 - Mar 16 by Catullus |
I watched a news report (C4) and they were saying Venice has noticed one positive effect of this virus. The water is cleaner because there's no motor boats, cruise liners, tourists polluting the place.
Our roads have been noticeably quieter, the aircraft are grounded, this virus is bad for humans but it's giving the planet a break. |
Literally no planes overhead, got to be good for the planet but these greedy fckrs running round with bog rolls and attitudes wouldn’t give a fck. This is where the real kick off begins when mass scrapping for personal gain be that political or on the streets. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 15:01 - Mar 17 with 2388 views | A_Fans_Dad |
Just wow.
Lisa quotes the Imperial College as a good source on COV.
If the DM quotes are anything to go by their scare mongering is on a massive scale to anything we have seen on here.
260,000 dead and the UK on lockdown for 18 months.
Scare the sh!t out of us, why don't you.
Anyone got a link to their actual report? | | | |
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| Corona Virus on 15:03 - Mar 17 with 2387 views | JackSomething |
| Corona Virus on 12:19 - Mar 17 by ladyjack |
You are the troll, a nasty piece of work who does not like been called out on the rubbish you spout. |
Why don't you start a poll on who out of you is the troll? Then you could stop bleating about it.
I don't agree with plenty of Lisa's posts, but most of the time she only gets 'nasty' when it's directed her way first. |  |
| You know, Hobbes, some days even my lucky rocket ship underpants don't help. |
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| Corona Virus on 15:07 - Mar 17 with 2376 views | JackSomething |
| Corona Virus on 12:20 - Mar 17 by londonlisa2001 |
For the higher risk groups, advocating isolation from a few weeks ago would be probably have been sensible. Although isolating one group may not work, I’ve no idea, without there being some measure of isolation in the whole community.
On the supermarket thing I completely agree. However, I think the shops themselves have some responsibility. They are all able to bring in measures re panic buying- allowing only one delivery per household per fortnight for example, and sharing info to stop multiple deliveries from different providers may help. That’s easy for them to do. |
While I agree completely on the supermarkets taking more responsibility, I don't think that they could share info between them to stop multiple deliveries from different providers. That would surely be a huge data protection issue? | |
| You know, Hobbes, some days even my lucky rocket ship underpants don't help. |
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| Corona Virus on 15:40 - Mar 17 with 2320 views | longlostjack |
So the answer could be tonic water. If gin is added it apparently improves the efficacy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 15:43 - Mar 17 with 2316 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 15:01 - Mar 17 by A_Fans_Dad |
Just wow.
Lisa quotes the Imperial College as a good source on COV.
If the DM quotes are anything to go by their scare mongering is on a massive scale to anything we have seen on here.
260,000 dead and the UK on lockdown for 18 months.
Scare the sh!t out of us, why don't you.
Anyone got a link to their actual report? |
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-co
It's an excellent analysis not without flaws or some assumptions, but these guys are the Lionel Messi of epidemiology.
Please stop posting random things from google searches though-some of them are at best dubious | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:49 - Mar 17 with 2299 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 15:40 - Mar 17 by longlostjack |
So the answer could be tonic water. If gin is added it apparently improves the efficacy. |
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| Corona Virus on 16:26 - Mar 17 with 2238 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
I have a friend who contrubuted to this from his statistical work in Wuhaun at the tail end of last year, it has a mix of the theoretical and practical observations that always gives me more confidence.
Thank you for your well constructed and informed posts, I wish you all the very best in the coming weeks and months. | |
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| Corona Virus on 16:30 - Mar 17 with 2235 views | A_Fans_Dad |
That excellent analysis added nothing to what is already known.
This one is even better.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid-19-imperial-researchers-model-likel
But it still doesn't add anything to what we already know.
However note this
"Professor Christl Donnelly, Professor of Statistical Epidemiology within J-IDEA, said: “The challenges we collectively face are daunting. However, our work indicates if a combination of measures are implemented, then transmission can be substantially reduced. These measures will be disruptive but uncertainties will reduce over time, and while we await effective vaccines and drugs, these public health measures can reduce demands on our healthcare systems.”
"While we await effective drugs", so he is not acknowledging the work done by both China & South Koreas on drug use.
There is also no mention of Masks or hand washing.
There is some decent data on 448 cases in report 8 but a lot of the data is missing.
see
subset_international_cases_2020_03_11.csv
One characteristic from the data is that only 65 cases had "recovery dates".
This is one of the worrying items on the worldometers site, that in many countries most of the cases are still classed as "active cases" and have not fully recovered.
Can I ask you why you think that they have discounted the wearing of face masks?
ps I have noticed an error on the Swiss count last column on worldometers, they say 8.3 cases/Million population and it should be 320. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 16:43]
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| Corona Virus on 16:56 - Mar 17 with 2185 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:03 - Mar 17 by JackSomething |
Why don't you start a poll on who out of you is the troll? Then you could stop bleating about it.
I don't agree with plenty of Lisa's posts, but most of the time she only gets 'nasty' when it's directed her way first. |
She told me to f**k off on this very thread, she directed the boards attention to Prof Ian Donald points and I quoted in full 4 of his points and she told me to f**k, that is what happens you challenge her and she has no answer she gets abusive and trys belittling calling some one a troll for having a different point of view, if she didn't abuse people on here they would not feel the need to do it back, the onus is on her, unless people pull her up on it she will keep doing it because she can get away with it. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:01 - Mar 17 with 2170 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 14:50 - Mar 17 by Catullus |
Yes, absolutely. Like I said, things would be different if the Chinese had been open from the very beginning.
Ladyjack wants to blame Bojo and ok, he's making mistakes, getting things wrong, but putting it all at Bojo's door really is ignoring that the horse had already bolted. |
I'm not putting all the blame on BoJo, you keep on saying I think this and think that yet I don't say what you think I think, you do it all the time with me. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:25 - Mar 17 with 2136 views | thornabyswan |
| Corona Virus on 17:01 - Mar 17 by ladyjack |
I'm not putting all the blame on BoJo, you keep on saying I think this and think that yet I don't say what you think I think, you do it all the time with me. |
Americans to receive 1000 dollars each in aid.
How much is Boris giving out.
I know his mate Branson is down to his last 4 billion so he is due a pay out. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 17:27]
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| Corona Virus on 17:30 - Mar 17 with 2124 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 17:25 - Mar 17 by thornabyswan |
Americans to receive 1000 dollars each in aid.
How much is Boris giving out.
I know his mate Branson is down to his last 4 billion so he is due a pay out. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 17:27]
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That is an interesting plan. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:39 - Mar 17 with 2110 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 15:03 - Mar 17 by JackSomething |
Why don't you start a poll on who out of you is the troll? Then you could stop bleating about it.
I don't agree with plenty of Lisa's posts, but most of the time she only gets 'nasty' when it's directed her way first. |
I think you only have to look at recent instances to see that that is not the case. See the attack on Tummer as just one e.g.
But then you seem partial to attacking the poster not the issue yourself.
Of course people so bought into their own perspective that they think it ok to repeatedly call others thick etc. or try to belittle the poster in other ways, don’t inspire me as the most personally aware or open thinking. It is interesting to see the repeated techniques used to put others down in attempts to diminish the validity of their POV. Sad.
As Professor previously pointed out both LadyJack and Lisa were making some valid points. It is just one does not seem to always have the ability to argue their case, when challenged, without reverting to personal abuse and the other cannot seem to avoid political issues on a subject that is far too important for that.
Why should AFD be accused of thinking he knew better than the experts when a number of experts were concerned about the approach we seemed to be taking (as to some extent was I). It is also widely commented on the rapid change in our approach so I don’t think arguments between escalated time v u turn are helpful.
However, like Lisa and most others, I don’t pretend to know what is best. But I do feel we should have information and should not smoother constructive valid concerns. There are so many unknowns about this (and potentially how it may mutate) but with so many variables and unknowns modelling its future behaviour could obviously be well off beam.
It is clear that for now the safest thing is to keep apart, but as for the effects of that as a long term strategy who knows. We can have no doubt of personal and the extensive business chaos that involves.
Perhaps we will learn from this to live a simpler life, for those of us that still have one. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:40 - Mar 17 with 2108 views | thornabyswan |
| Corona Virus on 17:30 - Mar 17 by ladyjack |
That is an interesting plan. |
Indeed the BBC have delayed TV licence fees for over 75s perhaps he will take credit for that. | |
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| Corona Virus on 18:07 - Mar 17 with 2062 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 17:25 - Mar 17 by thornabyswan |
Americans to receive 1000 dollars each in aid.
How much is Boris giving out.
I know his mate Branson is down to his last 4 billion so he is due a pay out. [Post edited 17 Mar 2020 17:27]
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The mix of Grants and Loans announced today is a sensible mix. It is public money, our taxes will pay for this.
Giving a small shop £25,000 to pay the wages is good, giving a large and normally profitable business a loan that can be repaid is sensible.
Giving individuals money on a hardship basis is good, giving millionaires $1000 is just plain daft. | |
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| Corona Virus on 18:20 - Mar 17 with 2032 views | Flashberryjack |
| Corona Virus on 18:07 - Mar 17 by JACKMANANDBOY |
The mix of Grants and Loans announced today is a sensible mix. It is public money, our taxes will pay for this.
Giving a small shop £25,000 to pay the wages is good, giving a large and normally profitable business a loan that can be repaid is sensible.
Giving individuals money on a hardship basis is good, giving millionaires $1000 is just plain daft. |
If Boris single handedly found a cure for the coronavirus, a lot on here would blame him for failing to find a cure for aids. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 18:33 - Mar 17 with 1995 views | Brynmill_Jack |
| Corona Virus on 18:20 - Mar 17 by Flashberryjack |
If Boris single handedly found a cure for the coronavirus, a lot on here would blame him for failing to find a cure for aids. |
Yes , because he’s so likely to do that isn’t he. |  |
| Each time I go to Bedd - au........................ |
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