| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 581249 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 10:30 - Mar 28 with 2481 views | monmouth |
| Corona Virus on 10:05 - Mar 28 by majorraglan |
I agree and think we should have been in lockdown much earlier, I also suspect part the change of tactic and move away from herd immunity was a factor. Another issue to consider was the fact emergency legislation was only introduced this week, that needed to be in place a few weeks ago.
The Sky article also makes reference to the Atalanta v Valencia football match in Milan pouring petrol on the corona virus flames - football in the UK closed down, but the WRU still wanted to play against Scotland and the Pro 14 allowed Benetton Treviso to play Newport in Gwent a few weeks ago, I wonder if that has anything to do with increased numbers in Gwent?
The article mentions tracking people who have been in contract with people who have tested positive, that’s a big job but one worthy of consideration.
The Italians are looking to increase the fines to €3000’s in some cases so they mean business.
Government should be stopping flights in to the UK from hotspot areas and screening people, everyone and gripping the tube in London. |
Shouldn’t flights be stopped full stop apart from repatriations that should then be quarantined for 14 days?
The Benetton thing is interesting but then again by that logic, shouldn’t Liverpool be rampantly sick given the thousands of Atletico fans that were allowed to travel to Anfield?
Anyway, we are where we are. Just got to get on with it now. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 12:44 - Mar 28 with 2377 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 07:49 - Mar 28 by Highjack |
Is waking up suddenly with an inexplicably painful nipple (right) one of the symptoms? I think I might have it. |
You just forgot to take the clamp off mun. I hope you didn't leave the plug in too  |  |
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| Corona Virus on 12:46 - Mar 28 with 2374 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 22:46 - Mar 27 by airedale |
My understanding is that the pesky varmint is subject to gravity. |
True, but gravity also works on the measles virus which is massively infectious and is generally accepted to remain suspended in the air for up to 2 hours, where it has the potential to infect those that breathe it in or get it in their eyes.
Viruses are tiny. It is said of this Coronavirus, that many millions could fit on the head of a pin
What I am interested in is if I was correct in hearing the virologist from Lancaster when he seemed to say that the current Coronavirus could be suspended in air for up to 2 hours, because that would be rather worrying. Also considering a cough may travel around 6 metres and a sneeze 8 metres and the droplets stay in the air for up to 10 minutes.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Generally on aerosols ......
When you look up at the sky, you are looking at more than just air. There are also billions of tiny bits of solid and liquid floating in the atmosphere. Those tiny floating particles are called aerosols or particulates.
Some aerosols are so small that they are made only of a few molecules — so small that they are invisible because they are smaller than the wavelength of light. Larger aerosols are still very small, but they are visible.
There are hundreds or thousands of little aerosols in each cubic centimeter of air. Some of them are natural and others are released into the air by humans. Natural sources of aerosols include dust from dry regions that is blown by the wind .....
In general, the smaller and lighter a particle is, the longer it will stay in the air. Larger particles tend to settle to the ground by gravity in a matter of hours whereas the smallest particles (less than 1 micrometer) can stay in the atmosphere for weeks and are mostly removed by precipitation
––––––––––––––––––––––––––-
Extract from Lancet report on infection rate of measles .....
The basic reproduction number, R nought (R 0), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation.
R 0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. As R 0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. For measles, R 0 is often cited to be 12—18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12—18 other people in a totally susceptible population. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:09 - Mar 28 with 2327 views | BillyChong |
| Corona Virus on 12:46 - Mar 28 by chad |
True, but gravity also works on the measles virus which is massively infectious and is generally accepted to remain suspended in the air for up to 2 hours, where it has the potential to infect those that breathe it in or get it in their eyes.
Viruses are tiny. It is said of this Coronavirus, that many millions could fit on the head of a pin
What I am interested in is if I was correct in hearing the virologist from Lancaster when he seemed to say that the current Coronavirus could be suspended in air for up to 2 hours, because that would be rather worrying. Also considering a cough may travel around 6 metres and a sneeze 8 metres and the droplets stay in the air for up to 10 minutes.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Generally on aerosols ......
When you look up at the sky, you are looking at more than just air. There are also billions of tiny bits of solid and liquid floating in the atmosphere. Those tiny floating particles are called aerosols or particulates.
Some aerosols are so small that they are made only of a few molecules — so small that they are invisible because they are smaller than the wavelength of light. Larger aerosols are still very small, but they are visible.
There are hundreds or thousands of little aerosols in each cubic centimeter of air. Some of them are natural and others are released into the air by humans. Natural sources of aerosols include dust from dry regions that is blown by the wind .....
In general, the smaller and lighter a particle is, the longer it will stay in the air. Larger particles tend to settle to the ground by gravity in a matter of hours whereas the smallest particles (less than 1 micrometer) can stay in the atmosphere for weeks and are mostly removed by precipitation
––––––––––––––––––––––––––-
Extract from Lancet report on infection rate of measles .....
The basic reproduction number, R nought (R 0), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation.
R 0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. As R 0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. For measles, R 0 is often cited to be 12—18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12—18 other people in a totally susceptible population. |
Might explain the ‘stay indoors’ mantra rather than just ‘stay away from/don’t touch things or people’. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:31 - Mar 28 with 2292 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 02:14 - Mar 28 by DJack |
"According to news services the Diamond Princess was still infected 17 days after the last patient & crew left. "
Bollucks, absolute bollucks
Covid RNA was found not, functioning, "live" Covid
So, yes, you keep proving that your knowledge is very flawed. |
Suppose it depends how you define infected ;)
The Guardian reported
Does the cruise ship report imply that viruses survive up to 17 days on surfaces?
Dr Julia Marcus: A CDC investigation of the cruise ship found evidence of viral RNA in cabins that hadn’t yet been cleaned. But to be clear, that just means the virus was detectable — not that it was viable or that contact with those services would have been able to infect someone. (Editor’s note: RNA, or ribonucleic acid, carries the virus’s genetic information.)
It says it means it was detectable not that it was viable. But does that actually mean it was not viable? Has it been made clear that none of it was viable? I am not suggesting it was, but we need to be careful when interpreting statements.
It has been shown I believe, that it can remain viable on certain surfaces for up to 3 days. Similar viruses can remain viable on certain surfaces for up to 9 days and it is thought that that may also be the case with this.
Of course RNA of the 1918 virus was still being recovered from victims up to 80 years later (and possibly more recently).
A new scientist article about COVID-19 persistence
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238494-how-long-does-coronavirus-stay-on-s | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:32 - Mar 28 with 2284 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 13:09 - Mar 28 by BillyChong |
Might explain the ‘stay indoors’ mantra rather than just ‘stay away from/don’t touch things or people’. |
If you are indoors on a sunny day and a beam of sunlight comes through your window, you can see the dust floating in it. If dust big enough to be seen is there, floating around, then it makes sense that this virus could be too.
Maybe we need the experts to clarify this. | |
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| Corona Virus on 13:41 - Mar 28 with 2278 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 13:32 - Mar 28 by Catullus |
If you are indoors on a sunny day and a beam of sunlight comes through your window, you can see the dust floating in it. If dust big enough to be seen is there, floating around, then it makes sense that this virus could be too.
Maybe we need the experts to clarify this. |
I don’t think there is any doubt that the infected (symptomed or symptomless) can shed it into the air whilst infectious, nor that it can be suspended there for a time.
The question is how long is that likely to be and can that be as long as 2 hours like measles. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:46 - Mar 28 with 2260 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 13:41 - Mar 28 by chad |
I don’t think there is any doubt that the infected (symptomed or symptomless) can shed it into the air whilst infectious, nor that it can be suspended there for a time.
The question is how long is that likely to be and can that be as long as 2 hours like measles. |
Yeah sorry chad, my point was that gravity won't prevent you getting Covid19, this stuff could be floating around. It's possibly why everyone should be wearing facemasks? | |
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| Corona Virus on 14:09 - Mar 28 with 2220 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 13:46 - Mar 28 by Catullus |
Yeah sorry chad, my point was that gravity won't prevent you getting Covid19, this stuff could be floating around. It's possibly why everyone should be wearing facemasks? |
Of course not, anybody who is anybody will tell you that facemasks don't protect you.
That is why all the Asian countries that experienced SARS & MERS wear them when there is an epidemic, it just makes them feel safer, which is also why those same people recommend all care workers wear them to make them feel safer as well. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:09 - Mar 28 with 2225 views | longlostjack |
A leading virologist here in Germany said that the droplets fall relatively quickly to the ground. If memory serves me correctly I think he talked about 30 seconds. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 14:12 - Mar 28 with 2221 views | Garyjack |
260 UK deaths yesterday! |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:25 - Mar 28 with 2195 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 13:46 - Mar 28 by Catullus |
Yeah sorry chad, my point was that gravity won't prevent you getting Covid19, this stuff could be floating around. It's possibly why everyone should be wearing facemasks? |
So difficult and with the 6 metre cough range it makes you question the 2 metre rule we have (when even that is observed). I think they are just trying to do the best that is practicable to give a reasonable degree of protection
It is not hard to see the potential attractiveness of the herd immunity whilst protecting the weakest, path.
Masks is a question of availability. v.careful usage and correct protection type I would think
Shopping is a big thing that affects all, the more they sort that out and get more deliveries sorted the better IMHO.
Although if it can piggyback on floating dust our house is a serious danger area :) | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:25 - Mar 28 with 2190 views | Oldjack |
Why is the DVLA open ?and why are the new 2m rules being unavoidable broken ? an apocalypse time bomb I've been told [Post edited 28 Mar 2020 14:55]
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| Prosser the Tosser dwells on Phil's bum hole like a rusty old hemorrhoid ,fact
You Greedy Bastards Get Out Of OUR Club!
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| Corona Virus on 14:39 - Mar 28 with 2160 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 14:09 - Mar 28 by longlostjack |
A leading virologist here in Germany said that the droplets fall relatively quickly to the ground. If memory serves me correctly I think he talked about 30 seconds. |
That also seems to make logical sense
However given the up to 2 hour in the air seemed to be widely accepted for measles perhaps it is to do with different droplet sizes of the expulsion and /or the majority of material falling down.
But as Cat says the really fine stuff just seems to suspend. And that is stuff big enough to see
With one of the other outbreaks I understand it was spread partly from fine spray from toilet flush in combo with runny tum :( | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:07 - Mar 28 with 2117 views | DJack |
| Corona Virus on 10:22 - Mar 28 by chad |
Did you forget to remove the clamp? |
Clamp or jump leads? |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 15:24 - Mar 28 with 2079 views | DJack |
| Corona Virus on 13:31 - Mar 28 by chad |
Suppose it depends how you define infected ;)
The Guardian reported
Does the cruise ship report imply that viruses survive up to 17 days on surfaces?
Dr Julia Marcus: A CDC investigation of the cruise ship found evidence of viral RNA in cabins that hadn’t yet been cleaned. But to be clear, that just means the virus was detectable — not that it was viable or that contact with those services would have been able to infect someone. (Editor’s note: RNA, or ribonucleic acid, carries the virus’s genetic information.)
It says it means it was detectable not that it was viable. But does that actually mean it was not viable? Has it been made clear that none of it was viable? I am not suggesting it was, but we need to be careful when interpreting statements.
It has been shown I believe, that it can remain viable on certain surfaces for up to 3 days. Similar viruses can remain viable on certain surfaces for up to 9 days and it is thought that that may also be the case with this.
Of course RNA of the 1918 virus was still being recovered from victims up to 80 years later (and possibly more recently).
A new scientist article about COVID-19 persistence
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238494-how-long-does-coronavirus-stay-on-s |
"Suppose it depends how you define infected ;)"
You are, of course, correct but many of AFD's post add to the FUD. I get it that he is trying to rationalise and pass information on but it is often incorrect or out of context. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 15:55 - Mar 28 with 2027 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 15:24 - Mar 28 by DJack |
"Suppose it depends how you define infected ;)"
You are, of course, correct but many of AFD's post add to the FUD. I get it that he is trying to rationalise and pass information on but it is often incorrect or out of context. |
It is really important that things are pointed out when they are misleading or just plain wrong but I am sure AFD is concerned (as are most of us) and (as you say - and like me) is trying to make sense of it. I know he has thanked people for correcting him (when not done in an abusive way).
I certainly would be delighted to be corrected if in anyway I am creating a false impression about anything. The most important thing is factual information. The problem is it is an evolving area of knowledge and whilst there is a lot of agreement amongst ‘experts’ there is also divergence and many unknowns so it often is far from clear cut.
What I find difficult is all the repeated political point scoring which when repeated ad nauseam is far from helpful (not aimed at you). | | | |
| Corona Virus on 16:03 - Mar 28 with 2009 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 15:55 - Mar 28 by chad |
It is really important that things are pointed out when they are misleading or just plain wrong but I am sure AFD is concerned (as are most of us) and (as you say - and like me) is trying to make sense of it. I know he has thanked people for correcting him (when not done in an abusive way).
I certainly would be delighted to be corrected if in anyway I am creating a false impression about anything. The most important thing is factual information. The problem is it is an evolving area of knowledge and whilst there is a lot of agreement amongst ‘experts’ there is also divergence and many unknowns so it often is far from clear cut.
What I find difficult is all the repeated political point scoring which when repeated ad nauseam is far from helpful (not aimed at you). |
Chad - read this link.
It’s a useful explanation that differentiates between theoretical possibilities in certain conditions and what they think actually happens in practice.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-d | | | |
| Corona Virus on 16:07 - Mar 28 with 1998 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 14:09 - Mar 28 by A_Fans_Dad |
Of course not, anybody who is anybody will tell you that facemasks don't protect you.
That is why all the Asian countries that experienced SARS & MERS wear them when there is an epidemic, it just makes them feel safer, which is also why those same people recommend all care workers wear them to make them feel safer as well. |
Yeah it might make people feel safer but it doesn’t actually make you safer. Bit like the gun argument in America I suppose. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 16:08 - Mar 28 with 1995 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:07 - Mar 28 by DJack |
Clamp or jump leads? |
I haven’t used the electrodes in months after Greta scolded me for destroying the planet. She uses responsibly sourced fair trade wooden pegs on me now. | |
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| Corona Virus on 16:20 - Mar 28 with 1955 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 15:24 - Mar 28 by DJack |
"Suppose it depends how you define infected ;)"
You are, of course, correct but many of AFD's post add to the FUD. I get it that he is trying to rationalise and pass information on but it is often incorrect or out of context. |
DJack, you are correct, but there is a distinct difference between infected and infectious.
What I was trying to point out was that the study showed that despite all the crew tried to do to keep the passengers safe and the passengers in isolation, after 17 days the surfaces still showed how badly the ship surfaces had been infected with the virus.
Anybody going in to the ship for days after the last crew & passengers had left, were in danger of becoming infected.
Maybe if the crew weren't leaving they would have tried fumigating the ship to kill off the virus covering the surfaces.
But it does show what a hard job it is to keep surfaces clean of the virus when in quarintine and why the Chinese were using spray fumigation of building and even path & road surfaces.
Khan had the tube train carriages fumigated, but it was pointless if you are going to allow infected people back in them to just recoat the surfaces again. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 16:21 - Mar 28 with 1952 views | DJack |
A good article. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 17:06 - Mar 28 with 1884 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 16:21 - Mar 28 by DJack |
A good article. |
Did I just hear the news correctly, that Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish health workers are getting tested but English health workers are not ? |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:34 - Mar 28 with 1846 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 14:09 - Mar 28 by A_Fans_Dad |
Of course not, anybody who is anybody will tell you that facemasks don't protect you.
That is why all the Asian countries that experienced SARS & MERS wear them when there is an epidemic, it just makes them feel safer, which is also why those same people recommend all care workers wear them to make them feel safer as well. |
The facemasks won't prevent you breathing it in but it will reduce the range of any cough or sneeze spray. Besides which and FFP3 mask if properly worn will protect you.
That is my understanding of it and maybe somebody who knows better can correct that if it's wrong | |
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| Corona Virus on 17:36 - Mar 28 with 2625 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 17:06 - Mar 28 by ladyjack |
Did I just hear the news correctly, that Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish health workers are getting tested but English health workers are not ? |
I know we've started testing in Wales, the English hadn't but soon will. | |
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