| What can QPR learn from Brentford? 14:57 - May 5 with 8451 views | JordanFoster |
I have toyed with the idea of writing this blog for a while, but never seemed to have enough time or could really be bothered with all the hassle bearing in mind some may not read it anyway. But alas, here it is.
At a time when QPR are battling to stay in the Premier League, their neighbours down the road are fighting to get in it after a whirlwind first season in the Championship. Brentford, whom have often been a joke to many in the past, are making people sit up and take notice. I’ve been convinced for a while that if Rangers were to adopt a loose version of ‘Moneyball’ they would see a huge turnaround in fortunes. I am probably wrong but if done well, it can be very beneficial to a club.
Mathew Benham, the Brentford FC chairman and supporter is a huge fan of Moneyball. The phrase was originally coined by Oakland Athletic’s Billy Beane in Major League Baseball. Beane and Oakland had a tiny budget and with this realised that by copying the methods of the bigger and better teams he and the side would never really progress as he wanted. Instead he relied heavily on a scouting network that focused on statistics and undervalued players that could be acquired very cheaply whilst selling players in their squad that they felt to be overvalued (fairly common sense I’m sure you’ll agree).
If you haven’t read Soccernomics by Kuper and Szymanski, then I’ve written out their ‘rules’ for a successful Moneyball approach. I think it makes for fascinating reading and if you haven’t read the book then I would highly recommend it. I’ve added the page numbers for those that do. Anyway, the rules are here:
1. Net wage spend is more important than net transfer spend (pp. 14-21)
2. Don’t needlessly splash out on new players or sell old ones when you take over a club — the New Manager Syndrome (pp. 21-22)
3. Don’t recruit players who impressed at international tournaments: they’re likely to be overvalued and past performance is no indication of future performance, especially when they’re playing with a different team (pp. 22-24) — there are different incentives and a different tactical set-up at tournaments, and it’s a super small sample size.
4. Some nationalities are overrated, like Holland, Brazil, and England (pp. 24-25)
5. Sell your players at the right time: when they’re around 30 years old, goalkeepers aside (p. 29)
6. Use the wisdom of crowds: ask all your scouts and a Director of Football if you have one (pp. 43-44)
7. Buy players in their early twenties, which avoids the problems with not developing properly, and means previous statistics have greater value (pp. 45-47)
8. Centre-forwards cost more than they should (p. 47)
9. Sell any player if a club offers more than they are worth and try to replace them before they are sold (pp. 48-49)
10. Don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players (pp. 49-51)
Of course, it’s fairly hard pinpoint each and everyone one of them to Brentford, but they do make a frightening amount of sense in general.
One of Brentford’s signings last year was pacey non-league forward Andre Gray. The 23-year-old had scored 30 goals whilst still being something of a creative force for his team-mates with 8 assists in 45 games for Luton Town, before Brentford pounced to sign him for £550k (Transfermarkt). I covered Brentford in preseason and was impressed with Gray, he had all the attributes even if he was a little raw. I know he had a bit of a culture shock with the transition into full-time football, even admitting to me that he would often go home to bed after preseason training as he was so exhausted. At the age of 23, he has hit 15 goals in the league and assisted his team mates eight times. He’s quick, strong, clinical and like many of the Brentford team unselfish. I’m sure he’s worth far more than the half a million they paid for him now.
Another look at The Bees’ recruitment process shows an emphasis on young players. Last summer Warburton signed one 18-year-old, five 20-year-olds, three 21-year-olds, four players between the ages of 22 and 24, and one 27 and 28-year-old each. There was an anomaly however, Tommy Smith (35) signed on a short term deal. Whilst perhaps more experience would have held them in greater stead, the vast majority of the signings have hit the Moneyball points straight on the head. (point 7)
Depending on positon, injury history and a few other factors peak age range can differentiate but the general consensus is that it falls between 24 and 30. The majority of Brentford’s first team this year were made up of players between the ages of 20 and 24. Whilst three of the four players (Jonathan Douglas, Alan McCormack, Tommy Smith and Kevin O’Connor) that are older than the peak age range have played less than 40% of games this year. The one anomaly to this, Jonathan Douglas has been a mainstay in the side with an array of competitive and energetic performances.
So not only are they attracting young players, they are giving them game time and allow them to progress. They’re also likely to be on a vast amount of money less than their older counterparts and they can continue to develop together. When the time is right, they could be sold on for profit or kept with them all hitting their peak ages together.
When a club is run like this, it also becomes less irrelevant in comparison to other clubs of whom the manager or head coach is. Saying that however, I do really like Mark Warburton though.
He’s got a philosophy that he sticks too and always wants to play the right way. Brentford are playing teams off the park at GP this year, but even when things aren’t going right he still expects the ball to be played on the floor and berates his side if they start launching it long.
He’s very analytical, very honest and has an in-depth knowledge of European youngsters having started the NextGen series (Player of the Season Alex Pritchard first came to his attention when he played in this a few years back).
He likes to play 4-2-3-1 with two industrious midfielders protecting a back four made up with two athletic, attacking minded wing-backs and two commanding centre halves.
The lone striker doesn’t need to be good in the air and he isn’t the best, he pulls the two centre halves all over the place creating space for the three attacking midfielders — who whilst being technically gifted, have a very high work rate. The often play a counter attacking game and the keeper will be asked to drop the ball quick into the attacking third for the front four to cause havoc.
The future is very bright for Brentford, Benham and Warburton. I’m sure everyone involved is destined for the Premier League in the not too distant future even though they won’t be all at Brentford.
How it would be implemented at QPR now, I’m not sure. However, with a huge summer coming for Rangers a philosophy needs to be laid down and I’m sure there are a few Moneyball advocates that would be pushing it in the direction of W12.
Interested to hear all views as ever, I haven't read it back as I'm on lunch but apprecite there will be typos galore!
Ta! [Post edited 6 May 2015 9:21]
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 16:26 - May 5 with 6366 views | ActonOccident |
I think the precursors to even thinking about going down this path are strict budgeting for player acquisition and a trusted network of scouts (kudos for referencing Soccernomics, check out Nowhere Men too if you haven't). Unfortunately I haven't seen evidence of either yet. The jury is out until the Summer exodus, so I think we'll see what kind of wisdom has developed within the club then. The sense I get is that QPR have been the passive party in a lot of the transfer shenanigans; see Warnock's book and how he describes arriving at a meeting with Fernandes with a bunch of agents unexpectedly in attendance.
There are some interesting findings in Soccernomics though, especially their sections on the myth of fan loyalty (with the three buckets - fanatics, commited casuals and carefree casuals) and on the effect of improved facilities on matchday attendances. I think looking at Brentford through those two aspects of Football as a business over the next few years will be very interesting. |  | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 16:29 - May 5 with 6357 views | WeaverQPR |
Can you C&P up here i cant read blogs on works computer they are blocked |  |
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 20:07 - May 5 with 6188 views | stowmarketrange |
That's the policy where we've had our success from.Buy young players from the lower leagues that have potential.We lost our way when we got promoted and decided to go for players who had already reached the peak of their careers and were on the slide downhill.
I don't know how we can change it quickly to getting back to that policy.
Maybe we tried to run before we could walk once the four year plan had been achieved? |  | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 20:49 - May 5 with 6146 views | Lblock |
I've not read but I can tell you one thing:
There's absolutely NOTHING their fans can teach ours! They are starting to annoy on a par with Chexscum with their attitude and cockyness
There's no humour, no humility, no history and modern day manufactured passion. There's also a little childish Feltham element who really fancy themselves.
I'll caveat this with there's a few decent ones that I know though!! |  |
| Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal |
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 23:33 - May 5 with 6004 views | switchingcode |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 20:49 - May 5 by Lblock |
I've not read but I can tell you one thing:
There's absolutely NOTHING their fans can teach ours! They are starting to annoy on a par with Chexscum with their attitude and cockyness
There's no humour, no humility, no history and modern day manufactured passion. There's also a little childish Feltham element who really fancy themselves.
I'll caveat this with there's a few decent ones that I know though!! |
I've not read it. Says it all | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 07:53 - May 6 with 5938 views | Pommyhoop |
Good read.
Hope the Bee's go up tbh.Ive got a lot of Brentford mates and am happy for them.
Like I've mentioned on here before Ive been to a fair few Bee's games with my mates ( only for the p1ss up fellas)  . including the famous FA cup run which ended at Anfield in the QF.
Any way here are the rules for 'moneyball' for those who cant get the link.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
1. Net wage spend is more important than net transfer spend (pp. 14-21)
2. Don’t needlessly splash out on new players or sell old ones when you take over a club — the New Manager Syndrome (pp. 21-22)
3. Don’t recruit players who impressed at international tournaments: they’re likely to be overvalued and past performance is no indication of future performance, especially when they’re playing with a different team (pp. 22-24) — there are different incentives and a different tactical set-up at tournaments, and it’s a super small sample size.
4. Some nationalities are overrated, like Holland, Brazil, and England (pp. 24-25)
5. Sell your players at the right time: when they’re around 30 years old, goalkeepers aside (p. 29)
6. Use the wisdom of crowds: ask all your scouts and a Director of Football if you have one (pp. 43-44)
7. Buy players in their early twenties, which avoids the problems with not developing properly, and means previous statistics have greater value (pp. 45-47)
8. Centre-forwards cost more than they should (p. 47)
9. Sell any player if a club offers more than they are worth and try to replace them before they are sold (pp. 48-49)
10. Don’t buy players if you don’t need to: develop a youth network and try to develop your own players (pp. 49-51)
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
We fail a fair few of those rules..   |  |
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 09:19 - May 6 with 5892 views | JordanFoster |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 23:33 - May 5 by switchingcode |
I've not read it. Says it all |
To be fair, if you haven't read it, it doesn't have anything to do with the fans. | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 10:51 - May 6 with 5812 views | PhilmyRs |
Interesting read, although I do think you perhaps over simplify the approach of buying young up and coming players and reaping the rewards. In the past (Sinton, Ferdinand, Sinclair and much more) it was easier to find such talent. There were a lot of bargains to be hand. I don't think that's the case so much now. With the increase in transfer activity, the bosman rule, clubs can just "do deals" without long term planning in mind. The holy grail is of course developing your youngsters and picking the best talent from the league below but as I said at the beginning it's not easy to do. Arguably clubs like Brentford only really have this option. They don't have the clout of bigger clubs to get in more established names in. It's easier for them to adopt the moneyball approach. For us to do it a far greater change in the set up of the club would be required and thing's would probably get worse before they get better. | | | |
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 12:50 - May 6 with 5762 views | switchingcode |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 10:51 - May 6 by PhilmyRs |
Interesting read, although I do think you perhaps over simplify the approach of buying young up and coming players and reaping the rewards. In the past (Sinton, Ferdinand, Sinclair and much more) it was easier to find such talent. There were a lot of bargains to be hand. I don't think that's the case so much now. With the increase in transfer activity, the bosman rule, clubs can just "do deals" without long term planning in mind. The holy grail is of course developing your youngsters and picking the best talent from the league below but as I said at the beginning it's not easy to do. Arguably clubs like Brentford only really have this option. They don't have the clout of bigger clubs to get in more established names in. It's easier for them to adopt the moneyball approach. For us to do it a far greater change in the set up of the club would be required and thing's would probably get worse before they get better. |
Agree with you on all that | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 13:02 - May 6 with 5745 views | Benny_the_Ball |
2 things stand out to me:
A chairman that has a clear strategy, puts faith in up-and-coming managers and has made real progress with the new stadium.
A manager that knows the transfer market and gets the best out of young, hungry players.
A shame for Brentford that the obsession with statistics has eroded the relationship between the pair but the chairman's record of delivery suggests that he knows what he's doing and will find another decent manager. Time will tell. |  | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 13:05 - May 6 with 5741 views | CamberleyR |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 09:19 - May 6 by JordanFoster |
To be fair, if you haven't read it, it doesn't have anything to do with the fans. |
i think he was referring to LBlock's post saying he hadn't read it. |  |
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 14:39 - May 6 with 5678 views | switchingcode |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 13:05 - May 6 by CamberleyR |
i think he was referring to LBlock's post saying he hadn't read it. |
I was thanks | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 14:46 - May 6 with 5663 views | switchingcode |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 13:02 - May 6 by Benny_the_Ball |
2 things stand out to me:
A chairman that has a clear strategy, puts faith in up-and-coming managers and has made real progress with the new stadium.
A manager that knows the transfer market and gets the best out of young, hungry players.
A shame for Brentford that the obsession with statistics has eroded the relationship between the pair but the chairman's record of delivery suggests that he knows what he's doing and will find another decent manager. Time will tell. |
Shame the experts in the media don't understand the situation unlike a rival fan as I presume you are.You have summed it up well and your post is very accurate.Time will tell ,I expect the new manager/coach to be foreign. | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 15:31 - May 6 with 5628 views | ActonOccident |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 14:46 - May 6 by switchingcode |
Shame the experts in the media don't understand the situation unlike a rival fan as I presume you are.You have summed it up well and your post is very accurate.Time will tell ,I expect the new manager/coach to be foreign. |
The fella at Rayo Vallecano? Paco something? | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 15:44 - May 6 with 5621 views | JordanFoster |
Apolgies then, I misread the post.
My point was is that with QPR likely to go down, AGAIN, then something needs to change. If we were going to lay a proper philosophy down then I don't know why you wouldn't look at Moneyball.
I don't think it is any harder than it has been in the past, although I admit a proper scouting infrastructure through all levels needs to be in place. Warburton also worked on the NextGen comp giving him access to the likes of Pritchard and Betinho.
This my stick in the throat of some too: http://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/brentford-will-spend-3m-to-upgrade-grif | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 15:51 - May 6 with 5613 views | Rangersw12 |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 15:44 - May 6 by JordanFoster |
Apolgies then, I misread the post.
My point was is that with QPR likely to go down, AGAIN, then something needs to change. If we were going to lay a proper philosophy down then I don't know why you wouldn't look at Moneyball.
I don't think it is any harder than it has been in the past, although I admit a proper scouting infrastructure through all levels needs to be in place. Warburton also worked on the NextGen comp giving him access to the likes of Pritchard and Betinho.
This my stick in the throat of some too: http://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/brentford-will-spend-3m-to-upgrade-grif |
It would be bang out of order making them share with us especially as they have plans to build a new ground
Fulham were allowed with terracing for a season or 2 so why not Brentford but if they do have to share we should charge them 2 million a game which would help to reduce our debt [Post edited 6 May 2015 15:54]
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 16:03 - May 6 with 5596 views | Benny_the_Ball |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 14:46 - May 6 by switchingcode |
Shame the experts in the media don't understand the situation unlike a rival fan as I presume you are.You have summed it up well and your post is very accurate.Time will tell ,I expect the new manager/coach to be foreign. |
Tell me, is Warburton 100% on his way out or is the chairman waiting until the play-offs are decided before making a decision? Would look odd to get rid of a manager who achieves back-to-back promotions, despite the differences in philosophy. [Post edited 6 May 2015 16:03]
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 17:27 - May 6 with 5564 views | eccles |
Interesting points. Although....
there are no guarantees that what works at one club will be replicated at ours. Agree that we have to feed youngsters in as and when we can, but only if they are good enough. It worked at Brentford and good luck to them. They're welcome to the premier league if you ask me. Yet not all clubs are the same. Look at Juventus. Their starting eleven yesterday included six players over 30, three in their late 20's and a couple of youngsters at 22 who were both subbed. And they beat Real Madrid!
Not all clubs can follow the same pattern. I want us to find our own way with players that have a genuine feeling for the club. If they come through our academy then they may have more feeling for us. Out of the current crop there's only Clint that gets it.
Brentford have found their way, great, I want us to find ours not copy them. |  | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 17:41 - May 6 with 5553 views | JordanFoster |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 17:27 - May 6 by eccles |
Interesting points. Although....
there are no guarantees that what works at one club will be replicated at ours. Agree that we have to feed youngsters in as and when we can, but only if they are good enough. It worked at Brentford and good luck to them. They're welcome to the premier league if you ask me. Yet not all clubs are the same. Look at Juventus. Their starting eleven yesterday included six players over 30, three in their late 20's and a couple of youngsters at 22 who were both subbed. And they beat Real Madrid!
Not all clubs can follow the same pattern. I want us to find our own way with players that have a genuine feeling for the club. If they come through our academy then they may have more feeling for us. Out of the current crop there's only Clint that gets it.
Brentford have found their way, great, I want us to find ours not copy them. |
No of course, but I think to compare a QPR side to Juve is a little naive. They are in the Champions League and a large majority of their older players have been there for years.
My point was more than with the right infrastructure, a credible scouting network and the *right* players then success can be achieved. I wonder how many of the players signed in the summer were scouted not just on their ability to play football but how they are mentally.
The last thing I want the club to do is sign a load of youngsters from lower league because they feel it will please fans and show lessons learnt. At the same time, no one was overly happy with the likes of Onyewu, Chevanton and Benayoun being offered short-term deals last year.
There is a lot of work behind the scenes to do before results will improve on the pitch. | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 17:56 - May 6 with 5544 views | LowerloftLad |
Nothing when did we last play them 11 years ago ??? Small club that have kept there books in order once they reach the prem they will sell there soul like every other club has done |  |
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| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 18:01 - May 6 with 5538 views | switchingcode |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 15:31 - May 6 by ActonOccident |
The fella at Rayo Vallecano? Paco something? |
No its definately not him although he was approached back in January. | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 18:03 - May 6 with 5536 views | switchingcode |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 16:03 - May 6 by Benny_the_Ball |
Tell me, is Warburton 100% on his way out or is the chairman waiting until the play-offs are decided before making a decision? Would look odd to get rid of a manager who achieves back-to-back promotions, despite the differences in philosophy. [Post edited 6 May 2015 16:03]
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Sadly,he will definately be leaving and always was after the issues surfaced in January and since then their relationship has rapidly gone down hill | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 18:07 - May 6 with 5532 views | switchingcode |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 15:51 - May 6 by Rangersw12 |
It would be bang out of order making them share with us especially as they have plans to build a new ground
Fulham were allowed with terracing for a season or 2 so why not Brentford but if they do have to share we should charge them 2 million a game which would help to reduce our debt [Post edited 6 May 2015 15:54]
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The thought of ground sharing with you is mutuel I can assure you.If and its a big if we go up its not just the terracing that has to go our media facilities aren't up to standard to accommodate the Sky circus in the prem. | | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 18:09 - May 6 with 5526 views | SpiritofGregory |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 18:03 - May 6 by switchingcode |
Sadly,he will definately be leaving and always was after the issues surfaced in January and since then their relationship has rapidly gone down hill |
We should have approached him in January like Palace approached Pardew. |  | | |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 18:11 - May 6 with 5519 views | Juzzie |
| What can QPR learn from Brentford? on 18:09 - May 6 by SpiritofGregory |
We should have approached him in January like Palace approached Pardew. |
Now why didn't you mention that back then? |  | | |
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