| Someone better at maths than me 19:38 - Apr 22 with 15197 views | CockneyDale |
With a couple of the teams below us due to play each other still, I have a feeling that it may be already impossible for seven teams to pass us and that we are actually already mathematically safe. Can anyone work it out?! |  | | |  |
| Someone better at maths than me on 16:52 - Apr 23 with 4281 views | fermin |
| Someone better at maths than me on 14:34 - Apr 23 by dingdangblue |
Southend are at home to Sunderland on the last day. Sunderland may be unable to get automatic by then and could rest players for the play offs. The best thing we can do is beat Southend on Saturday and its all over. We could lose on Saturday and might not need a point at Charlton. Just praying things go our way and we dont need a point at Charlton. Its certainly more in our hands than last season! Wimbledon and Accrington both losing tonight would be helpful. |
As a natural pessimist I am with NorthYorksDale! However, we just need to avoid defeat against Southend to be safe. |  | | |
| Someone better at maths than me on 19:47 - Apr 23 with 3990 views | geraldo |
| Someone better at maths than me on 16:52 - Apr 23 by fermin |
As a natural pessimist I am with NorthYorksDale! However, we just need to avoid defeat against Southend to be safe. |
If we avoid defeat on Saturday we will be safe as Southend will then not be able to catch us with the last match to come |  | | |
| Someone better at maths than me on 20:18 - Apr 23 with 3902 views | D_Alien |
| Someone better at maths than me on 19:47 - Apr 23 by geraldo |
If we avoid defeat on Saturday we will be safe as Southend will then not be able to catch us with the last match to come |
It's precisely the same scenario as 50 years ago, and great that some of those lads will be there to see it |  |
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| Someone better at maths than me on 20:21 - Apr 23 with 3887 views | sykeboy |
| Someone better at maths than me on 19:49 - Apr 22 by SaxonDale |
Shows the optimistic/ pessimistic amongst us! I still think 250/1 is great odds for us to go down, certainly haven’t cracked open any celebratory beers just yet. |
Now 150/1 😳 | | | |
| Someone better at maths than me on 20:43 - Apr 23 with 3814 views | Thacks_Rabbits |
| Someone better at maths than me on 20:21 - Apr 23 by sykeboy |
Now 150/1 😳 |
That will be due to judds fiver 😂😂😂 |  |
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| Someone better at maths than me on 20:45 - Apr 23 with 3798 views | judd |
| Someone better at maths than me on 20:43 - Apr 23 by Thacks_Rabbits |
That will be due to judds fiver 😂😂😂 |
I've not backed it but a Bristol Rovers supporting colleague has put a tenner on his team going down at 250/1 |  |
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| Someone better at maths than me on 21:48 - Apr 23 with 3636 views | Sheffdale |
Late late show for AFC Wimbledon 2-2 now. Sorry - Missed the match night thread too! [Post edited 23 Apr 2019 21:49]
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| Someone better at maths than me on 22:13 - Apr 23 with 3544 views | jonahwhereru |
I readily admit to having a nervous disposition, and tonight’s results have not helped. Yep I know it’s in our hands, but I will gladly take any help we can get.
Bradford and achy both to win on Saturday PLEASE!!! | | | |
| Someone better at maths than me on 22:19 - Apr 23 with 3502 views | BlueDales |
From what I can work out, if Wimbledon don't beat Wycombe on Saturday then we are safe whatever happens at Spotland (given the points mathematics of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still having each other to play). A point on Saturday and we are safe, anyway. | | | |
| Someone better at maths than me on 22:33 - Apr 23 with 3448 views | Thacks_Rabbits |
| Someone better at maths than me on 22:19 - Apr 23 by BlueDales |
From what I can work out, if Wimbledon don't beat Wycombe on Saturday then we are safe whatever happens at Spotland (given the points mathematics of Plymouth and Scunthorpe still having each other to play). A point on Saturday and we are safe, anyway. |
We will be ok. Please all stop worrying. | |
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| Someone better at maths than me on 11:35 - Apr 24 with 3199 views | Mundell |
New to the site, but an exile who has followed Dale from afar for many decades.
Anyway, last season's last match of the season excitement was almost too much for me. For this reason I've been hoping to relax and enjoy this season's final curtain against Charlton free from the pressure of needing something from the game to stay up. The question is, how likely is that? At the risk of repeating some of what has already been said in this thread, I thought I'd share the status as I see it.
As others have said, if Dale draw with Southend on Saturday (or win obviously) we are SAFE. At a minimum we'd finish above Bradford City, Walsall, either Plymouth or Scunthorpe (if not both) and Southend.
However, if we lose to Southend life could become a lot more complicated. In this scenario only a win at Charlton would ensure mathematical safety, i.e. regardless of what happens elsewhere. Given that Charlton haven't lost at home since October 6th another last day of the season triumph against the Addicks is fairly unlikely though, unfortunately.
Here's how it all fits together. If we lose to both Southend and Charlton we still only go down IF EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games, against Wycombe (H) and Bradford (A).
AND Southend draw (or better) at home against Sunderland on the final day of the season.
AND Wycombe, having lost to Wimbledon, draw (or better) v Fleetwood (H) on the final day of the season.
AND Shrewsbury take one point (or more) from Coventry (A) and Walsall (H).
AND Bristol Rovers take one point (or more) from Fleetwood (A) and Barnsley (H).
AND Either Scunthorpe win both games, against Bradford (H) and Plymouth (A), OR, Plymouth take four (or more) points from Accrington (A) and Scunthorpe (H).
If any of these six things doesn't happen, we are SAFE.
If Dale lose to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, then the club would be relegated if EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games.
AND Southend beat Sunderland.
AND Wycombe beat Fleetwood.
AND Shrewsbury take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Bristol Rovers take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Either Scunthorpe or Plymouth win both of their remaining games.
Individually, each of these outcomes looks entirely plausible. Fortunately, the odds fall sharply when we look at the likelihood of them all happening together and that's why we're 100-1, or wider, to go down. However, a defeat against Southend on Saturday may well nevertheless set up a very tense final day.
If we do lose to Southend then we'll only be safe going into the final day if one of the following happens;
EITHER Wimbledon fail to beat Wycombe (H) OR Scunthorpe fail to win AND Plymouth lose.
Hope that all makes sense. A draw (or better) against Southend is what the Doctor has ordered!!
PS Edit Should have added that in the event Dale lose at home to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, there is a further possibility that would ensure survival. Accrington would also then need an additional point to finish above us. This would need to come either from their home match v Plymouth (preventing Plymouth winning both of their matches) or from their final game away at Portsmouth. [Post edited 24 Apr 2019 13:19]
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| Someone better at maths than me on 11:44 - Apr 24 with 3171 views | jonesy |
Blimey! Well done. Like you say a draw (or better) on Saturday is what is required. | | | |
| Someone better at maths than me on 11:50 - Apr 24 with 3164 views | DorsetDale |
| Someone better at maths than me on 11:35 - Apr 24 by Mundell |
New to the site, but an exile who has followed Dale from afar for many decades.
Anyway, last season's last match of the season excitement was almost too much for me. For this reason I've been hoping to relax and enjoy this season's final curtain against Charlton free from the pressure of needing something from the game to stay up. The question is, how likely is that? At the risk of repeating some of what has already been said in this thread, I thought I'd share the status as I see it.
As others have said, if Dale draw with Southend on Saturday (or win obviously) we are SAFE. At a minimum we'd finish above Bradford City, Walsall, either Plymouth or Scunthorpe (if not both) and Southend.
However, if we lose to Southend life could become a lot more complicated. In this scenario only a win at Charlton would ensure mathematical safety, i.e. regardless of what happens elsewhere. Given that Charlton haven't lost at home since October 6th another last day of the season triumph against the Addicks is fairly unlikely though, unfortunately.
Here's how it all fits together. If we lose to both Southend and Charlton we still only go down IF EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games, against Wycombe (H) and Bradford (A).
AND Southend draw (or better) at home against Sunderland on the final day of the season.
AND Wycombe, having lost to Wimbledon, draw (or better) v Fleetwood (H) on the final day of the season.
AND Shrewsbury take one point (or more) from Coventry (A) and Walsall (H).
AND Bristol Rovers take one point (or more) from Fleetwood (A) and Barnsley (H).
AND Either Scunthorpe win both games, against Bradford (H) and Plymouth (A), OR, Plymouth take four (or more) points from Accrington (A) and Scunthorpe (H).
If any of these six things doesn't happen, we are SAFE.
If Dale lose to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, then the club would be relegated if EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games.
AND Southend beat Sunderland.
AND Wycombe beat Fleetwood.
AND Shrewsbury take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Bristol Rovers take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Either Scunthorpe or Plymouth win both of their remaining games.
Individually, each of these outcomes looks entirely plausible. Fortunately, the odds fall sharply when we look at the likelihood of them all happening together and that's why we're 100-1, or wider, to go down. However, a defeat against Southend on Saturday may well nevertheless set up a very tense final day.
If we do lose to Southend then we'll only be safe going into the final day if one of the following happens;
EITHER Wimbledon fail to beat Wycombe (H) OR Scunthorpe fail to win AND Plymouth lose.
Hope that all makes sense. A draw (or better) against Southend is what the Doctor has ordered!!
PS Edit Should have added that in the event Dale lose at home to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, there is a further possibility that would ensure survival. Accrington would also then need an additional point to finish above us. This would need to come either from their home match v Plymouth (preventing Plymouth winning both of their matches) or from their final game away at Portsmouth. [Post edited 24 Apr 2019 13:19]
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Welcome to the board Mundell. Hope the headache garnered from working that lot out is now only a memory. | |
| YOU do not have the right to give someone else permission to tell me what I can and can't do. |
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| Someone better at maths than me on 12:10 - Apr 24 with 3114 views | dingdangblue |
| Someone better at maths than me on 11:35 - Apr 24 by Mundell |
New to the site, but an exile who has followed Dale from afar for many decades.
Anyway, last season's last match of the season excitement was almost too much for me. For this reason I've been hoping to relax and enjoy this season's final curtain against Charlton free from the pressure of needing something from the game to stay up. The question is, how likely is that? At the risk of repeating some of what has already been said in this thread, I thought I'd share the status as I see it.
As others have said, if Dale draw with Southend on Saturday (or win obviously) we are SAFE. At a minimum we'd finish above Bradford City, Walsall, either Plymouth or Scunthorpe (if not both) and Southend.
However, if we lose to Southend life could become a lot more complicated. In this scenario only a win at Charlton would ensure mathematical safety, i.e. regardless of what happens elsewhere. Given that Charlton haven't lost at home since October 6th another last day of the season triumph against the Addicks is fairly unlikely though, unfortunately.
Here's how it all fits together. If we lose to both Southend and Charlton we still only go down IF EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games, against Wycombe (H) and Bradford (A).
AND Southend draw (or better) at home against Sunderland on the final day of the season.
AND Wycombe, having lost to Wimbledon, draw (or better) v Fleetwood (H) on the final day of the season.
AND Shrewsbury take one point (or more) from Coventry (A) and Walsall (H).
AND Bristol Rovers take one point (or more) from Fleetwood (A) and Barnsley (H).
AND Either Scunthorpe win both games, against Bradford (H) and Plymouth (A), OR, Plymouth take four (or more) points from Accrington (A) and Scunthorpe (H).
If any of these six things doesn't happen, we are SAFE.
If Dale lose to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, then the club would be relegated if EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games.
AND Southend beat Sunderland.
AND Wycombe beat Fleetwood.
AND Shrewsbury take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Bristol Rovers take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Either Scunthorpe or Plymouth win both of their remaining games.
Individually, each of these outcomes looks entirely plausible. Fortunately, the odds fall sharply when we look at the likelihood of them all happening together and that's why we're 100-1, or wider, to go down. However, a defeat against Southend on Saturday may well nevertheless set up a very tense final day.
If we do lose to Southend then we'll only be safe going into the final day if one of the following happens;
EITHER Wimbledon fail to beat Wycombe (H) OR Scunthorpe fail to win AND Plymouth lose.
Hope that all makes sense. A draw (or better) against Southend is what the Doctor has ordered!!
PS Edit Should have added that in the event Dale lose at home to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, there is a further possibility that would ensure survival. Accrington would also then need an additional point to finish above us. This would need to come either from their home match v Plymouth (preventing Plymouth winning both of their matches) or from their final game away at Portsmouth. [Post edited 24 Apr 2019 13:19]
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I cant imagine with Dale involved it will be plain sailing! We are used to end of season drama's now but it never gets any easier. All those scenarios look unlikely but then I remember when we went to Torquay hoping to get promoted I'm sure it could only happen if 4 or 5 other results went our way and they all did - unfortunately we got mullered 5-0. The one result I can see happening is Wycombe getting something at Wimbledon - especially when you have the added story of Akinfenwa up against his old team who he helped get promotion into league 1. |  |
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| Someone better at maths than me on 12:23 - Apr 24 with 3089 views | Shun |
Kinell! Impressive work, Mundell! |  | | |
| Someone better at maths than me on 15:28 - Apr 24 with 2816 views | DaleiLama |
| Someone better at maths than me on 15:20 - Apr 24 by TVOS1907 |
I thought it was Southend who were on a roll... |
And the Arctic Monkeys? |  |
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| Someone better at maths than me on 16:38 - Apr 24 with 2665 views | aleanddale |
| Someone better at maths than me on 11:35 - Apr 24 by Mundell |
New to the site, but an exile who has followed Dale from afar for many decades.
Anyway, last season's last match of the season excitement was almost too much for me. For this reason I've been hoping to relax and enjoy this season's final curtain against Charlton free from the pressure of needing something from the game to stay up. The question is, how likely is that? At the risk of repeating some of what has already been said in this thread, I thought I'd share the status as I see it.
As others have said, if Dale draw with Southend on Saturday (or win obviously) we are SAFE. At a minimum we'd finish above Bradford City, Walsall, either Plymouth or Scunthorpe (if not both) and Southend.
However, if we lose to Southend life could become a lot more complicated. In this scenario only a win at Charlton would ensure mathematical safety, i.e. regardless of what happens elsewhere. Given that Charlton haven't lost at home since October 6th another last day of the season triumph against the Addicks is fairly unlikely though, unfortunately.
Here's how it all fits together. If we lose to both Southend and Charlton we still only go down IF EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games, against Wycombe (H) and Bradford (A).
AND Southend draw (or better) at home against Sunderland on the final day of the season.
AND Wycombe, having lost to Wimbledon, draw (or better) v Fleetwood (H) on the final day of the season.
AND Shrewsbury take one point (or more) from Coventry (A) and Walsall (H).
AND Bristol Rovers take one point (or more) from Fleetwood (A) and Barnsley (H).
AND Either Scunthorpe win both games, against Bradford (H) and Plymouth (A), OR, Plymouth take four (or more) points from Accrington (A) and Scunthorpe (H).
If any of these six things doesn't happen, we are SAFE.
If Dale lose to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, then the club would be relegated if EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games.
AND Southend beat Sunderland.
AND Wycombe beat Fleetwood.
AND Shrewsbury take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Bristol Rovers take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Either Scunthorpe or Plymouth win both of their remaining games.
Individually, each of these outcomes looks entirely plausible. Fortunately, the odds fall sharply when we look at the likelihood of them all happening together and that's why we're 100-1, or wider, to go down. However, a defeat against Southend on Saturday may well nevertheless set up a very tense final day.
If we do lose to Southend then we'll only be safe going into the final day if one of the following happens;
EITHER Wimbledon fail to beat Wycombe (H) OR Scunthorpe fail to win AND Plymouth lose.
Hope that all makes sense. A draw (or better) against Southend is what the Doctor has ordered!!
PS Edit Should have added that in the event Dale lose at home to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, there is a further possibility that would ensure survival. Accrington would also then need an additional point to finish above us. This would need to come either from their home match v Plymouth (preventing Plymouth winning both of their matches) or from their final game away at Portsmouth. [Post edited 24 Apr 2019 13:19]
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| Someone better at maths than me on 16:38 - Apr 24 with 2661 views | D_Dale |
| Someone better at maths than me on 11:35 - Apr 24 by Mundell |
New to the site, but an exile who has followed Dale from afar for many decades.
Anyway, last season's last match of the season excitement was almost too much for me. For this reason I've been hoping to relax and enjoy this season's final curtain against Charlton free from the pressure of needing something from the game to stay up. The question is, how likely is that? At the risk of repeating some of what has already been said in this thread, I thought I'd share the status as I see it.
As others have said, if Dale draw with Southend on Saturday (or win obviously) we are SAFE. At a minimum we'd finish above Bradford City, Walsall, either Plymouth or Scunthorpe (if not both) and Southend.
However, if we lose to Southend life could become a lot more complicated. In this scenario only a win at Charlton would ensure mathematical safety, i.e. regardless of what happens elsewhere. Given that Charlton haven't lost at home since October 6th another last day of the season triumph against the Addicks is fairly unlikely though, unfortunately.
Here's how it all fits together. If we lose to both Southend and Charlton we still only go down IF EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games, against Wycombe (H) and Bradford (A).
AND Southend draw (or better) at home against Sunderland on the final day of the season.
AND Wycombe, having lost to Wimbledon, draw (or better) v Fleetwood (H) on the final day of the season.
AND Shrewsbury take one point (or more) from Coventry (A) and Walsall (H).
AND Bristol Rovers take one point (or more) from Fleetwood (A) and Barnsley (H).
AND Either Scunthorpe win both games, against Bradford (H) and Plymouth (A), OR, Plymouth take four (or more) points from Accrington (A) and Scunthorpe (H).
If any of these six things doesn't happen, we are SAFE.
If Dale lose to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, then the club would be relegated if EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games.
AND Southend beat Sunderland.
AND Wycombe beat Fleetwood.
AND Shrewsbury take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Bristol Rovers take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Either Scunthorpe or Plymouth win both of their remaining games.
Individually, each of these outcomes looks entirely plausible. Fortunately, the odds fall sharply when we look at the likelihood of them all happening together and that's why we're 100-1, or wider, to go down. However, a defeat against Southend on Saturday may well nevertheless set up a very tense final day.
If we do lose to Southend then we'll only be safe going into the final day if one of the following happens;
EITHER Wimbledon fail to beat Wycombe (H) OR Scunthorpe fail to win AND Plymouth lose.
Hope that all makes sense. A draw (or better) against Southend is what the Doctor has ordered!!
PS Edit Should have added that in the event Dale lose at home to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, there is a further possibility that would ensure survival. Accrington would also then need an additional point to finish above us. This would need to come either from their home match v Plymouth (preventing Plymouth winning both of their matches) or from their final game away at Portsmouth. [Post edited 24 Apr 2019 13:19]
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So there's no scenario in which goal difference might be a factor?
I'll bet you're good at Cluedo, Mundell. | | | |
| Someone better at maths than me on 17:51 - Apr 24 with 2501 views | dingdangblue |
| Someone better at maths than me on 16:38 - Apr 24 by D_Dale |
So there's no scenario in which goal difference might be a factor?
I'll bet you're good at Cluedo, Mundell. |
Yes goal difference is a factor in some of his scenarios. It sends us down. | |
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| Someone better at maths than me on 19:28 - Apr 24 with 2364 views | robbowood |
| Someone better at maths than me on 11:35 - Apr 24 by Mundell |
New to the site, but an exile who has followed Dale from afar for many decades.
Anyway, last season's last match of the season excitement was almost too much for me. For this reason I've been hoping to relax and enjoy this season's final curtain against Charlton free from the pressure of needing something from the game to stay up. The question is, how likely is that? At the risk of repeating some of what has already been said in this thread, I thought I'd share the status as I see it.
As others have said, if Dale draw with Southend on Saturday (or win obviously) we are SAFE. At a minimum we'd finish above Bradford City, Walsall, either Plymouth or Scunthorpe (if not both) and Southend.
However, if we lose to Southend life could become a lot more complicated. In this scenario only a win at Charlton would ensure mathematical safety, i.e. regardless of what happens elsewhere. Given that Charlton haven't lost at home since October 6th another last day of the season triumph against the Addicks is fairly unlikely though, unfortunately.
Here's how it all fits together. If we lose to both Southend and Charlton we still only go down IF EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games, against Wycombe (H) and Bradford (A).
AND Southend draw (or better) at home against Sunderland on the final day of the season.
AND Wycombe, having lost to Wimbledon, draw (or better) v Fleetwood (H) on the final day of the season.
AND Shrewsbury take one point (or more) from Coventry (A) and Walsall (H).
AND Bristol Rovers take one point (or more) from Fleetwood (A) and Barnsley (H).
AND Either Scunthorpe win both games, against Bradford (H) and Plymouth (A), OR, Plymouth take four (or more) points from Accrington (A) and Scunthorpe (H).
If any of these six things doesn't happen, we are SAFE.
If Dale lose to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, then the club would be relegated if EACH of the following happens;
Wimbledon win both remaining games.
AND Southend beat Sunderland.
AND Wycombe beat Fleetwood.
AND Shrewsbury take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Bristol Rovers take two points (or more) from their remaining games.
AND Either Scunthorpe or Plymouth win both of their remaining games.
Individually, each of these outcomes looks entirely plausible. Fortunately, the odds fall sharply when we look at the likelihood of them all happening together and that's why we're 100-1, or wider, to go down. However, a defeat against Southend on Saturday may well nevertheless set up a very tense final day.
If we do lose to Southend then we'll only be safe going into the final day if one of the following happens;
EITHER Wimbledon fail to beat Wycombe (H) OR Scunthorpe fail to win AND Plymouth lose.
Hope that all makes sense. A draw (or better) against Southend is what the Doctor has ordered!!
PS Edit Should have added that in the event Dale lose at home to Southend, but then draw at Charlton, there is a further possibility that would ensure survival. Accrington would also then need an additional point to finish above us. This would need to come either from their home match v Plymouth (preventing Plymouth winning both of their matches) or from their final game away at Portsmouth. [Post edited 24 Apr 2019 13:19]
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If we lose both games
If Wimbledon, Bristol Rovers, Gillingham, Southend, Scunthorpe and Shrewsbury all win both their remaining games and Wycombe beats Fleetwood and Accrington beats Portsmouth (and also say Walsall beats Peterborough not thta it matters)
andd you'ld get massive odds for all the above to happen but if it did the table will read
14 Bristol Rovers 46 +0 56
15 Shrewsbury 46 -6 56
16 Accrington Stanley 46 -20 54
17 Southend 46 -10 53
18 Wycombe 46 -12 53
19 AFC Wimbledon 46 -20 52
20 Scunthorpe 46 -25 52
21 Rochdale 46 -32 51
22 Plymouth 46 -20 50
23 Walsall 46 -24 46
24 Bradford 46 -32 37
Even if we got a point at Charlton we would be on 52 points and go down on goal difference
So a draw against Southend would keep us up as the bottom five would then be
20 Rochdale 46 -31 52
21 Southend 46 -11 51
22 Plymouth 46 -20 50
23 Walsall 46 -24 46
24 Bradford 46 -32 37 | | | |
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