| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 516161 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 11:56 - Jun 2 with 2853 views | KingstonJack |
I think countries will all be judged at some point in the future looking back on excess deaths, accepted that some stats will be dubious to say the least.
My feeling atm is that we were slow to lockdown and quick to ease the lockdown.
The price of life is no new thing to politics, so they are listening to the science but making political decisions imho.
I’m in SW London & it only really hit home when people started knowing people that were dead from it. On old mate of mine couldn’t get to his sisters funeral in Croydon (shielding), the pub landlord (42 years old, had young kids) 100m from my house and the local newsagent died of it.
They’re opening John Lewis here on 15 June and I guarantee it will be rammed with people confident in their home made masks ffs. Wife & I are lagging any ease in lockdown here for a few weeks.
I tell my old mum and other family in Swansea to be very cautious & do the same because an overnight change in lockdown policy doesn’t mean the threat changed at midnight, and with the R just under 1, I fear a second spike. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 20:19 - Jun 2 with 2757 views | waynekerr55 |
| Corona Virus on 11:56 - Jun 2 by KingstonJack |
I think countries will all be judged at some point in the future looking back on excess deaths, accepted that some stats will be dubious to say the least.
My feeling atm is that we were slow to lockdown and quick to ease the lockdown.
The price of life is no new thing to politics, so they are listening to the science but making political decisions imho.
I’m in SW London & it only really hit home when people started knowing people that were dead from it. On old mate of mine couldn’t get to his sisters funeral in Croydon (shielding), the pub landlord (42 years old, had young kids) 100m from my house and the local newsagent died of it.
They’re opening John Lewis here on 15 June and I guarantee it will be rammed with people confident in their home made masks ffs. Wife & I are lagging any ease in lockdown here for a few weeks.
I tell my old mum and other family in Swansea to be very cautious & do the same because an overnight change in lockdown policy doesn’t mean the threat changed at midnight, and with the R just under 1, I fear a second spike. |
Stay safe by staying out of McCluskys (if it's still open)
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| Corona Virus on 13:22 - Jun 3 with 2651 views | waynekerr55 |
Oh dear... | |
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| Corona Virus on 14:57 - Jun 3 with 2604 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 13:22 - Jun 3 by waynekerr55 |
Oh dear... |
Is Djack available for comment? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:35 - Jun 3 with 2597 views | Swansea93 |
Hospital deaths have spiked to 215 in England today, highest in 2 weeks.. | |
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| Corona Virus on 16:13 - Jun 3 with 2580 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 15:35 - Jun 3 by Swansea93 |
Hospital deaths have spiked to 215 in England today, highest in 2 weeks.. |
There was, apparently, a catch up today with many deaths reported being as much as 10 weeks old. 20 actually took place yesterday (obviously 20 too many).
I only point this out as it prevents stress and worry.
What is deeply worrying is the continued inability to properly report on numbers of people tested. It’s been almost 2 weeks since they said they were pausing it to sort it out.
All to do with the ridiculous contortions necessary to hit 100,000 on 1st May I suspect. Double counting all over the shop. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 16:54 - Jun 3 with 2539 views | Swansea93 |
| Corona Virus on 16:13 - Jun 3 by londonlisa2001 |
There was, apparently, a catch up today with many deaths reported being as much as 10 weeks old. 20 actually took place yesterday (obviously 20 too many).
I only point this out as it prevents stress and worry.
What is deeply worrying is the continued inability to properly report on numbers of people tested. It’s been almost 2 weeks since they said they were pausing it to sort it out.
All to do with the ridiculous contortions necessary to hit 100,000 on 1st May I suspect. Double counting all over the shop. |
Thanks for clearing that up, I don't tend to read to much into news articles as most seem to worry people with false information | |
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| Corona Virus on 17:04 - Jun 3 with 2531 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 16:54 - Jun 3 by Swansea93 |
Thanks for clearing that up, I don't tend to read to much into news articles as most seem to worry people with false information |
The reporting (official reporting) of numbers is genuinely all over the place. I’ve found the detail given on deaths that have occurred by date it happened rather than date reported to be a far more useful tool (it’s given in the PHE site and, I imagine, by PHW as well).
It shows a very marked downturn in infections and deaths, thankfully. Given we know as fact the total deaths to be far higher than reported daily (because the ONS are reporting totals), the discrepancy gradually catches up through the daily numbers, until they match. It’s not very useful though as it gives a really false impression of what is happening. | | | |
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| Corona Virus on 17:49 - Jun 3 with 2491 views | monmouth |
| Corona Virus on 13:22 - Jun 3 by waynekerr55 |
Oh dear... |
And.....cue AFD... |  |
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| Corona Virus on 18:13 - Jun 3 with 2473 views | dickythorpe |
Still way too many deaths.
A real communication problem with how you get tested and do you have to have symptoms to get one.
Plus Wales announces its going to reopen the schools on June 29th!!!
What parents of sound mind are happy with that from s health perspective??? |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:47 - Jun 3 with 2448 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 17:49 - Jun 3 by monmouth |
And.....cue AFD... |
You are late to the show, you need to keep up. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 23:13 - Jun 3 with 2377 views | DJack |
| Corona Virus on 14:57 - Jun 3 by A_Fans_Dad |
Is Djack available for comment? |
He is now as he has finished work and his food...
So then I will still post links that I'd decided to post around 10-15 minutes before you posted (but was unable - work).
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/02/surgisphere-and-their-
https://freerangestats.info/blog/2020/05/30/implausible-health-data-firm
On another note I am (and have previously shown to be) happy to accept I'm wrong when warranted. You, however, just doubledown on your position. To date there is still no evidence Chloroquine nor HCQ work - Patients with Lupus who've taken your wonder drug still catch Covid. I also suspect that the bleach drinkers have too. |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 23:24 - Jun 3 with 2367 views | A_Fans_Dad |
You obviously did not read the Link I posted from Yale if you still think that.
Or the other studies that big pharma try to rubbish, well that is your prerogative as to who you believe. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 23:43 - Jun 3 with 2360 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 18:13 - Jun 3 by dickythorpe |
Still way too many deaths.
A real communication problem with how you get tested and do you have to have symptoms to get one.
Plus Wales announces its going to reopen the schools on June 29th!!!
What parents of sound mind are happy with that from s health perspective??? |
I'm not sure I'm of sound mind but, we want our son back in school obviously only if it's safe. We'll talk to his teacher, see what the safeguards are and then decide.
It's slightly trickier with us (people in our situation) of course because I am shielding. There is an element though of what is best for our son. He has become socially isolated, he needs to see his friends as much as he needs to get back to learning.
I have no desire to catch Covid but I have a strong desire to do what is best for my son which might lead to me taking a bigger personal risk. It's a massive balancing act but fortunately they have said if parents choose to keep their kids home they won't take action.
I have no doubt though that for many kids this amounts to a lost year of education and our son may be unfortunate in that we have and always will tell him that no job is below him so get out and work! We will help as much as possible but if this all means he won't reach the academic standards his teachers have always said he's capable of it'll be the old fashioned take the job, any job and work your way up. That's going to be a very large boat they're all in though! | |
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| Corona Virus on 00:17 - Jun 4 with 2345 views | DJack |
| Corona Virus on 23:24 - Jun 3 by A_Fans_Dad |
You obviously did not read the Link I posted from Yale if you still think that.
Or the other studies that big pharma try to rubbish, well that is your prerogative as to who you believe. |
I read and discounted it...
"More than 1.6million Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2and >10 times that number carry antibodies to it." Nothing to prove that statement just claims that serology tests have inferred that.
"The fact that epidemiologic data to-date show strong evidence for efficacy of combined HCQ+AZ in early outpatient treatment, even if not “proof” yet at the level of severalsuccessful RCTs, is evidence that this medication regimen works in that context. " As it says here not at proof level and I, currently, know of no strong evidence for efficacy
"Some of my medical colleagues still prefer to wait until more studies are done and stronger evidence such as from RCTsbecomes available,and government and professional advisory panels do reevaluate the evidence. I strongly urge thesepanels to reconsider the data and arguments discussed above." His colleagues are right.
" I conclude that HCQ+AZ and HCQ+doxycycline, preferably with zinc(47)can be this outpatient treatment, at least until we find or add something better, whether that could be remdesivir or something else." He is saying Let's try something not proven as it's better than nothing...FCK NO! Only as a proper clinical trial not a corporeal lottery! | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 00:48 - Jun 4 with 2328 views | DJack |
In further news,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/03/hydroxychloroquine-clinical-tri
"The study is the first randomized clinical trial that tested the antimalarial drug as a preventive measure, according to researchers at the University of Minnesota Medical School who conducted the trial." | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 05:34 - Jun 4 with 2292 views | Jack_Meoff |
So, when is it time to have a conversation about how many people are dying, and will die long term, because of the effects of the 'lockdown?' Also those who will and are suffering its secondary effects?
Those who've had operations cancelled, those too afraid to seek medical help, those who are being made destitute because they're unable to provide for their families; suicides, victims of domestic abuse, child abuse, people suffering anxiety, depression etc etc.
According to Fullfact, 253 people have died (as of May 20th) from Covid who are under the age of 60 with no preexsisiting health conditions. I'm not belittling their loss, the point is that this disease will mainly be fatal/an issue to a certain demographic, not to everyone; yet we're still in lockdown. (Edit - this figure is for England only.)
https://fullfact.org/health/its-not-right-youre-more-likely-drown-die-covid-19-i
This was known months ago, as this study from Italy proved. Article from 18th March, before UK went into lockdown.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-vir
Also, people die in the UK every day, always have - between 1600 and 1700 people on average. The daily figures do not provide any context with regard this figure, or percentages of age groups etc. (Unless I'm mistaken, glad to be corrected.) Nor does the UK provide figures of those who have recovered from the virus - why is that?
Disproportionate doesn't come close to describing these measures. You don't deal with a rat under your floorboards by burning down your house. The economic ramifications are going to be huge. [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 5:45]
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| If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--forever. |
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| Corona Virus on 09:12 - Jun 4 with 2222 views | Scotia |
| Corona Virus on 05:34 - Jun 4 by Jack_Meoff |
So, when is it time to have a conversation about how many people are dying, and will die long term, because of the effects of the 'lockdown?' Also those who will and are suffering its secondary effects?
Those who've had operations cancelled, those too afraid to seek medical help, those who are being made destitute because they're unable to provide for their families; suicides, victims of domestic abuse, child abuse, people suffering anxiety, depression etc etc.
According to Fullfact, 253 people have died (as of May 20th) from Covid who are under the age of 60 with no preexsisiting health conditions. I'm not belittling their loss, the point is that this disease will mainly be fatal/an issue to a certain demographic, not to everyone; yet we're still in lockdown. (Edit - this figure is for England only.)
https://fullfact.org/health/its-not-right-youre-more-likely-drown-die-covid-19-i
This was known months ago, as this study from Italy proved. Article from 18th March, before UK went into lockdown.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-vir
Also, people die in the UK every day, always have - between 1600 and 1700 people on average. The daily figures do not provide any context with regard this figure, or percentages of age groups etc. (Unless I'm mistaken, glad to be corrected.) Nor does the UK provide figures of those who have recovered from the virus - why is that?
Disproportionate doesn't come close to describing these measures. You don't deal with a rat under your floorboards by burning down your house. The economic ramifications are going to be huge. [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 5:45]
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Deaths are a terrible side issue really when considering Covid and the lockdown. You are absolutely correct that few people of a relatively young age with no underlying health conditions have died (probably because of the lockdown), but there are an awful lot of older people in general and younger people with underlying conditions in the general population. I don't think my organisation could function without the over 60's, diabetics, asthmatics, obese, immuno-compromised and pregnant who work with me
The problem isn't necessarily the deaths that occur but the number of people that require hospital treatment - the most recent estimate I saw was 5% of those who contract the virus require treatment in hosptial.
One estimate said that without lockdown about 75% of the population would have caught the virus over a month period. That is about 45 million people in the UK. 2.25 million of those could have needed hospital treatment over that month. 450000 of these could have died.
Once the virus is circualting widely in the community the NHS can't function as anything other than an Covid 19 and emergency treatment service unless they put a limit on the number of Covid patients they will treat and leave the rest to fend for themselves. Of course that is assuming that staff treating other patients don't get ill. The same goes for mental health charities, Womens Aid, Childline and other businesses. They can't function if their staff aren't available.
There are people adversely affected by it without a doubt. My Wife's anxiety has been triggered by it, but she has a very stressful job which often triggers it anyway. I have family who have been furloughed, but I'll be honest they have been having the time of their lives. I also have friends who are self employed, and they have been really struggling.
The lockdown has worked, but now is the time to start to move out of it. Especially in areas of low infection. For instance I see no reason why Ceredigion (42 cases in total) can't start to reopen businesses to locals, but it would be crazy in RCT who have the highest infection rate per head in Wales. In Swansea we have had less than 5 new confirmed cases a day for a week, with 0 cases on most days, perhaps we could open beer gardens to limited numbers of people or allow families to visit?
This is where I have an issue with the Welsh Governments exit strategy, it is very vague and gives no reason for optimism. Vaughan Gething also said yesterday there will be no regional lockdowns, to combat localised outbreaks, that just seems crazy. 12 weeks has been long enough and we need something to look forward to. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 09:46 - Jun 4 with 2185 views | gadgetuk |
| Corona Virus on 11:56 - Jun 2 by KingstonJack |
I think countries will all be judged at some point in the future looking back on excess deaths, accepted that some stats will be dubious to say the least.
My feeling atm is that we were slow to lockdown and quick to ease the lockdown.
The price of life is no new thing to politics, so they are listening to the science but making political decisions imho.
I’m in SW London & it only really hit home when people started knowing people that were dead from it. On old mate of mine couldn’t get to his sisters funeral in Croydon (shielding), the pub landlord (42 years old, had young kids) 100m from my house and the local newsagent died of it.
They’re opening John Lewis here on 15 June and I guarantee it will be rammed with people confident in their home made masks ffs. Wife & I are lagging any ease in lockdown here for a few weeks.
I tell my old mum and other family in Swansea to be very cautious & do the same because an overnight change in lockdown policy doesn’t mean the threat changed at midnight, and with the R just under 1, I fear a second spike. |
I'm just around the corner from you in Worcester Park and I agree with everything you say.
It seems like as soon as a slight lifting of the lockdown happened people decided that they could go back to normal. Driving past KFC yesterday a group of about 10 kids all sat on a bench eating their food, forget 2m apart, they were inches away from each other. My son wants to meet his friends for the first time on Saturday, personally I would prefer he didn't as I don't think they'll social distance but then again he starts back at school the following week so he's going to be seeing them anyway. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:02 - Jun 4 with 2171 views | A_Fans_Dad |
That is another study that you want to actually read.
It was conducted over the Internet.
The patients were already in contact with COVID-19 Patients and therefore already infected or not.
The HCQ or Placebo was sent to the so called study participants through the post.
No Doctors were involved.
Nobody ensured they took the medicine.
No Zinc was involved.
I doubt very much that it meets the requirements of a WHO clinical study [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 12:11]
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| Corona Virus on 14:21 - Jun 4 with 2115 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 00:17 - Jun 4 by DJack |
I read and discounted it...
"More than 1.6million Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2and >10 times that number carry antibodies to it." Nothing to prove that statement just claims that serology tests have inferred that.
"The fact that epidemiologic data to-date show strong evidence for efficacy of combined HCQ+AZ in early outpatient treatment, even if not “proof” yet at the level of severalsuccessful RCTs, is evidence that this medication regimen works in that context. " As it says here not at proof level and I, currently, know of no strong evidence for efficacy
"Some of my medical colleagues still prefer to wait until more studies are done and stronger evidence such as from RCTsbecomes available,and government and professional advisory panels do reevaluate the evidence. I strongly urge thesepanels to reconsider the data and arguments discussed above." His colleagues are right.
" I conclude that HCQ+AZ and HCQ+doxycycline, preferably with zinc(47)can be this outpatient treatment, at least until we find or add something better, whether that could be remdesivir or something else." He is saying Let's try something not proven as it's better than nothing...FCK NO! Only as a proper clinical trial not a corporeal lottery! |
How tyical of you to quote his final statements without quoting his justification for recommneding it.
"Substantial fractions of physicians treating Covid-19 patients in Europe and elsewhere report use of HCQ+AZ: 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the US, 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK(45), much of the non-US use in outpatients. HCQ+AZ has been standard-of-care treatment at the four New York University hospitals, where a recent study showed that adding zinc sulfate to this regimen significantly cut both intubation and mortality risks by almost half | | | |
| Corona Virus on 22:45 - Jun 4 with 2031 views | DJack |
| Corona Virus on 10:02 - Jun 4 by A_Fans_Dad |
That is another study that you want to actually read.
It was conducted over the Internet.
The patients were already in contact with COVID-19 Patients and therefore already infected or not.
The HCQ or Placebo was sent to the so called study participants through the post.
No Doctors were involved.
Nobody ensured they took the medicine.
No Zinc was involved.
I doubt very much that it meets the requirements of a WHO clinical study [Post edited 4 Jun 2020 12:11]
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And yet your Yale study included figures from the discredited French study which included three deaths as "people who left the study"
Also:
Your Yale study said "Each piece of evidence, contained in each study, must be carefully considered and not dismissed because in an ideal world such evidence would fall in a lower part of the evidence-quality triangle."
...and yet they dimissed the Remdesivir one for the same reasons!!
Zinc isn't a magic substance. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 09:58 - Jun 5 with 1945 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 22:45 - Jun 4 by DJack |
And yet your Yale study included figures from the discredited French study which included three deaths as "people who left the study"
Also:
Your Yale study said "Each piece of evidence, contained in each study, must be carefully considered and not dismissed because in an ideal world such evidence would fall in a lower part of the evidence-quality triangle."
...and yet they dimissed the Remdesivir one for the same reasons!!
Zinc isn't a magic substance. |
No Zinc is not a magic substance, but it is absolutely essential for Human health.
"Zinc is needed for the proper growth and maintenance of the human body. It is found in several systems and biological reactions, and it is needed for immune function, wound healing, blood clotting, thyroid function, and much more."
I see the crap HCQ Lancet study has now been withdrawn, as it should never have been published in the first place. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 10:52 - Jun 5 with 1904 views | Jack_Meoff |
| Corona Virus on 09:12 - Jun 4 by Scotia |
Deaths are a terrible side issue really when considering Covid and the lockdown. You are absolutely correct that few people of a relatively young age with no underlying health conditions have died (probably because of the lockdown), but there are an awful lot of older people in general and younger people with underlying conditions in the general population. I don't think my organisation could function without the over 60's, diabetics, asthmatics, obese, immuno-compromised and pregnant who work with me
The problem isn't necessarily the deaths that occur but the number of people that require hospital treatment - the most recent estimate I saw was 5% of those who contract the virus require treatment in hosptial.
One estimate said that without lockdown about 75% of the population would have caught the virus over a month period. That is about 45 million people in the UK. 2.25 million of those could have needed hospital treatment over that month. 450000 of these could have died.
Once the virus is circualting widely in the community the NHS can't function as anything other than an Covid 19 and emergency treatment service unless they put a limit on the number of Covid patients they will treat and leave the rest to fend for themselves. Of course that is assuming that staff treating other patients don't get ill. The same goes for mental health charities, Womens Aid, Childline and other businesses. They can't function if their staff aren't available.
There are people adversely affected by it without a doubt. My Wife's anxiety has been triggered by it, but she has a very stressful job which often triggers it anyway. I have family who have been furloughed, but I'll be honest they have been having the time of their lives. I also have friends who are self employed, and they have been really struggling.
The lockdown has worked, but now is the time to start to move out of it. Especially in areas of low infection. For instance I see no reason why Ceredigion (42 cases in total) can't start to reopen businesses to locals, but it would be crazy in RCT who have the highest infection rate per head in Wales. In Swansea we have had less than 5 new confirmed cases a day for a week, with 0 cases on most days, perhaps we could open beer gardens to limited numbers of people or allow families to visit?
This is where I have an issue with the Welsh Governments exit strategy, it is very vague and gives no reason for optimism. Vaughan Gething also said yesterday there will be no regional lockdowns, to combat localised outbreaks, that just seems crazy. 12 weeks has been long enough and we need something to look forward to. |
Thanks for the response pal, great post and much appreciated.
Time will tell I guess about the effectiveness of lockdown. I completely agree with your last three paragraphs by the way. [Post edited 5 Jun 2020 10:55]
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| If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--forever. |
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