| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 580575 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 13:47 - Mar 26 with 2812 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 13:15 - Mar 26 by Kilkennyjack |
Lisa - lets be honest, you have been asleep at the wheel throughout this pandemic. You have consistently been ill informed and incorrect.
You bury your head in the sand if you like.
Resorting to personal abuse is a cheap shot, but i guess you already know that.
The people on this thread who are helping to hold this government to account are the people who want to see the Govt succeed, or why bother ?
I hate to tell you this but just wishing for something rarely works.
Mostly its about making hard decisions that stand up to duty scrutiny. |
I’m not at the bloody wheel, you utter moron. None of us are.
There’s no one on this thread holding the government to account.
There is no personal abuse - it was a genuine question.
None of us have any influence in this whatsoever apart from on our own behaviour and the behaviours of those around us.
We are all powerless. We can either latch on to every single piece of negative comment to knock the government or we can attempt to retain some sort of sanity. Neither will impact what’s done, it will only impact the mental health of those around us.
I have made every single effort i can to avoid social interaction for weeks. As I live in London and I believe that makes it easier for those in essential services. That is ALL I can do apart from help people who are more vulnerable than I am.
It’s not a moment for political point scoring and ‘I told you so’. The time for that will be after this is over and we see what actually happened and what we could have done differently. At present none of us know.
I choose not to revel in every bit of bad news. I don’t give a sh*t who the PM is at the moment. I just want the country as a whole to do as well as is possible. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 13:56 - Mar 26 with 2787 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 13:41 - Mar 26 by Professor |
The Oxford study is intriguing, tough roundly dismissed by a number of scientists, in that there is much anecdotal evidence of many people (including all of my household) with a less progressive respiratory disease-plenty have said this here. Perhaps we have had a wave of lower virulent infections. As you rightly say the antibody-based test will tell us a lot about exposure. It would be great if we are at a high exposure rate as we may get some herd immunity and transmission dropping off fairly soon. I'm not entirely hopeful it will happen though. Anything below 10000 deaths would be a major result |
The criticism from scientists it attracted is why I was surprised it wasn’t roundly dismissed. I’d assumed it was nonsense.
The anecdotal evidence you refer to though is incredibly pervasive.
The focus they’re showing in getting straight to antibody testing will be the real game changer.
Imperial are now saying ‘less than 20,000’. Although still appalling numbers, that’s a bad flu season I guess, and so would be a major result from where we could be.
The bit I don’t quite get if there is any truth in the oxford study is fatality rates prior to now. I imagine the only possible answer was that people could have been recorded as flu deaths or pneumonia prior to the recognition of the virus as separate?
All we can do is, as ever, hope for the best and plan for the worst. Thanks for all that you and your colleagues are doing to help. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 14:51 - Mar 26 with 2735 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 12:46 - Mar 26 by Professor |
That's a consequence of the nature of epidemiological models. They need data to feed the beast. The modelling I have been involved in (actually a network model of immune responses) used several thousand data sets we had generated over 3 years experimental work and remarkably was pretty accurate. The Imperial team (who developed the FMD models in 2001) tend to be pessimistic in initial outlook. That said I have never seen a predictive model work that well in a stochastic biological system.
Ulimately you can only stop and outbreak by blocking transmission routes or making a population resistant or immune |
‘Ultimately you can only stop an outbreak by blocking transmission routes or making a population resistant or immune’
Or by the virus itself mutating to be less lethal to its hosts? |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:14 - Mar 26 with 2688 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 14:51 - Mar 26 by chad |
‘Ultimately you can only stop an outbreak by blocking transmission routes or making a population resistant or immune’
Or by the virus itself mutating to be less lethal to its hosts? |
That’s happened before I believe.
Although early testing seems to suggest this one isn’t mutating very much. Bad news for the getting less lethal, but good news for immunity and a vaccine. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:41 - Mar 26 with 2658 views | Oldjack |
if this new coronavirus resembles other human coronaviruses, such as its "cousins" that cause SARS and MERS, it can stay on surfaces – such as metal, glass or plastic – for as long as nine days (In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.
Disinfect those surfaces |  |
| Prosser the Tosser dwells on Phil's bum hole like a rusty old hemorrhoid ,fact
You Greedy Bastards Get Out Of OUR Club!
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| Corona Virus on 15:48 - Mar 26 with 2639 views | Jackfath |
| Corona Virus on 15:41 - Mar 26 by Oldjack |
if this new coronavirus resembles other human coronaviruses, such as its "cousins" that cause SARS and MERS, it can stay on surfaces – such as metal, glass or plastic – for as long as nine days (In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.
Disinfect those surfaces |
Thanks for the tip Alan. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 15:53 - Mar 26 with 2629 views | Oldjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:48 - Mar 26 by Jackfath |
Thanks for the tip Alan. |
9 days is a long bloody time for a germ to survive outside it's own environment ,scrub them knobs down Doc
Stay lucky Friend ! | |
| Prosser the Tosser dwells on Phil's bum hole like a rusty old hemorrhoid ,fact
You Greedy Bastards Get Out Of OUR Club!
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| Corona Virus on 16:01 - Mar 26 with 2619 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 15:41 - Mar 26 by Oldjack |
if this new coronavirus resembles other human coronaviruses, such as its "cousins" that cause SARS and MERS, it can stay on surfaces – such as metal, glass or plastic – for as long as nine days (In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.
Disinfect those surfaces |
According to news services the Diamond Princess was still infected 17 days after the last patient & crew left.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/diamond-princess-traces-coronavirus-17-days-ship-e
The early studies that had been done did not use Human COVID19 Viruses they used the virus matrix instead.
So cleaning is an absolute must. [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 16:02]
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| Corona Virus on 16:24 - Mar 26 with 2592 views | jasper_T |
That says that they were able to find traces that proved the virus had been on those surfaces after 17 days, not that there were still viable viruses that could infect people there. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 16:35 - Mar 26 with 2567 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 14:51 - Mar 26 by chad |
‘Ultimately you can only stop an outbreak by blocking transmission routes or making a population resistant or immune’
Or by the virus itself mutating to be less lethal to its hosts? |
It could also mutate to be more lethal to the hosts. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 17:10 - Mar 26 with 2497 views | Drizzy |
Under scatching criticism from the WHO, both the Netherlands and Sweden have distanced themselves from the herd immunity approach.
You bleat on about the need to listen to experts, patronising others in the process, but continue to champion a strategy that is an enormous risk that most countries aren't willing to take.
Utter hypocrite. As you've always been. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 17:27 - Mar 26 with 2460 views | lifelong |
Why don’t they just go around and shoot all the over 70’s? It will save the virus killing them all. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:39 - Mar 26 with 2434 views | chad |
| Corona Virus on 16:35 - Mar 26 by Highjack |
It could also mutate to be more lethal to the hosts. |
Indeed and pedantically that might be a more effective way to stop it, if it kills off most of its own transmission source.
Although to live with a weak version might be considerably more desirable
Hopefully it learns not to bite the hand that feeds it.
Still don’t understand what stopped the 1918 virus that is said to have killed off 50 to 100 million. Does anyone? It seems it was reproduced (eek) for experimentation in the 90s? with the help of its genetic material taken from its victims lungs. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:47 - Mar 26 with 2397 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 17:39 - Mar 26 by chad |
Indeed and pedantically that might be a more effective way to stop it, if it kills off most of its own transmission source.
Although to live with a weak version might be considerably more desirable
Hopefully it learns not to bite the hand that feeds it.
Still don’t understand what stopped the 1918 virus that is said to have killed off 50 to 100 million. Does anyone? It seems it was reproduced (eek) for experimentation in the 90s? with the help of its genetic material taken from its victims lungs. |
To your last point. Everyone had either died of it or developed immunity. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 17:53 - Mar 26 with 2396 views | Highjack |
| Corona Virus on 17:39 - Mar 26 by chad |
Indeed and pedantically that might be a more effective way to stop it, if it kills off most of its own transmission source.
Although to live with a weak version might be considerably more desirable
Hopefully it learns not to bite the hand that feeds it.
Still don’t understand what stopped the 1918 virus that is said to have killed off 50 to 100 million. Does anyone? It seems it was reproduced (eek) for experimentation in the 90s? with the help of its genetic material taken from its victims lungs. |
I read somewhere that a lot of the deaths weren’t a direct result of the flu but of the combination of the flu affecting immune systems and a superbug type secondary bacterial infection because of the less than sanitary conditions in many countries and places like military hospitals and the trenches. | |
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| Corona Virus on 18:26 - Mar 26 with 2339 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Corona Virus on 17:53 - Mar 26 by Highjack |
I read somewhere that a lot of the deaths weren’t a direct result of the flu but of the combination of the flu affecting immune systems and a superbug type secondary bacterial infection because of the less than sanitary conditions in many countries and places like military hospitals and the trenches. |
Will add to that, given there was a war on there was a huge movement of people around the globe. Soldiers, logstics etc. The biggest problems were though that people moved in waves. Soldiers would go back home still infected, then infect those families who were nowhere near the front line. It all went entirely unchecked. |  |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Corona Virus on 18:37 - Mar 26 with 2310 views | perplex |
| Corona Virus on 21:32 - Mar 25 by Dr_Winston |
Italy had a direct line to Wuhan, with thousands of people travelling straight to the worst affected areas after Chinese New Year. The transmission to Spain seems to have been exacerbated by a Champions League game (held at the San Siro in Milan) between Atalanta and Valencia.
The problem is people are looking at one country and expecting things to be exactly the same here, when that's just not going to be the case. Different circumstances, different demographics, different vectors all round.
All this information is out there if people want to take the time to educate themselves. Or they can just hang around on Planetswans repeating the same old stuff. |
Totally agree with this. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:44 - Mar 26 with 2290 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 18:26 - Mar 26 by PozuelosSideys |
Will add to that, given there was a war on there was a huge movement of people around the globe. Soldiers, logstics etc. The biggest problems were though that people moved in waves. Soldiers would go back home still infected, then infect those families who were nowhere near the front line. It all went entirely unchecked. |
Add to that, no anti-biotics, no ICU beds, no intubation and hospitals full of injured soldiers.
Not a good set of circumstances. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:55 - Mar 26 with 2274 views | jasper_T |
103 deaths in the last reported 24 hour period. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 19:09 - Mar 26 with 2246 views | Catullus |
| Corona Virus on 12:28 - Mar 26 by JACKMANANDBOY |
Your point about the sustainability of a lockdown is interesting, Prof Chris Whitty said this early on, that the toughest measures need to come in at the right time as they are not sustainable for a long period and could do more harm than the virus. |
Ok but still, would it have slowed down the spread of the virus and given us more time to prepare?
When you talk abour sustainability do we have to bear in mind how many lunatics have ignored social distancing even since lockdown? Would having lockdown earlier (including testing and quarantine) have preventined Covid19 getting such a strong foothold or would even more people have taken it too lightly? I guess we'll never know.
This idea that very many of us may already have had it before we even heard about it, I've been hearing this from neighbours, from friends....not face to face I must add.... and the 3 of us have been chesty, wheezy, runny noses etc on and off since Christmas, I don't often get colds, I'm normally quite resistant maybe because of years of working outside, is that a valid thought Prof? | |
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| Corona Virus on 19:19 - Mar 26 with 2233 views | jasper_T |
| Corona Virus on 19:09 - Mar 26 by Catullus |
Ok but still, would it have slowed down the spread of the virus and given us more time to prepare?
When you talk abour sustainability do we have to bear in mind how many lunatics have ignored social distancing even since lockdown? Would having lockdown earlier (including testing and quarantine) have preventined Covid19 getting such a strong foothold or would even more people have taken it too lightly? I guess we'll never know.
This idea that very many of us may already have had it before we even heard about it, I've been hearing this from neighbours, from friends....not face to face I must add.... and the 3 of us have been chesty, wheezy, runny noses etc on and off since Christmas, I don't often get colds, I'm normally quite resistant maybe because of years of working outside, is that a valid thought Prof? |
The Australia flu (H3N2) was out in force this year. 99% of people that think they must have had the coronavirus months ago will have had that. Very similar symptoms.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/australian-flu-symptoms-how-treat-1410 [Post edited 26 Mar 2020 19:20]
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| Corona Virus on 19:27 - Mar 26 with 2216 views | Catullus |
I have the flu jab every year, did it cover this strain?
LC2 and Morriston liesure centre are being converted into extra hospital wards.
Looking at the figures on the Welsh news just now, have us West Wales dwellers been taking this more seriously because the numbers are higher in places that had their first case after us. Gwent is bad at 350 plus and Cardiff has 156 cases now with 75 in Swansea Bay health board. | |
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| Corona Virus on 19:36 - Mar 26 with 2203 views | CountyJim |
I've been sent home from work to self isolate but been told as it stands because I'm a porter im not on front line pathetic and won't be tested |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 20:01 - Mar 26 with 2916 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 19:36 - Mar 26 by CountyJim |
I've been sent home from work to self isolate but been told as it stands because I'm a porter im not on front line pathetic and won't be tested |
What hospital Jim? | | | |
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