A disappointing week of performances for the previously improved QPR finishes with a trip to Bristol City this Saturday that looks difficult on paper but has been fertile ground for Rangers teams in recent years.

Bristol City (3-4-1 DWWLDD 5th) v QPR (3-3-2 LWWWDD 10th)

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Another chunky away support north of 2,700 will brave the high winds to travel to Bristol City tomorrow, and why on earth wouldn’t you?

The walk around the harbour, the maritime history, the little coloured houses… and all the pubs. Bristol is an awayday supreme, and that’s before we get to QPR’s weird recent tendency to always get a result at Ashton Gate.

It wasn’t always like this. I used to absolutely loathe coming here with Rangers. This used to be a no-colours and be careful which pub you walk into awayday. Serious aggro inside and out a decaying stadium. Locals and players, united in their hatred of us, and particularly our manager, who loved nothing better than turning us over. Scott Murray one of those weird Darren Eadie-types who seemed to morph into some Beckham-Bergkamp hybrid freak at the mere sight of our hoops. Christian Roberts cupping his ear at us. Leroy Lita charging around the gaff. And even on the rare occasions it did go well, that hovel away end squished into the corner behind the goal was equipped with backless seats which would collapse forwards and turn into a flying deathtrap under minimal provocation, simultaneously kneecapping you and speer tackling you into the concrete floor during even the most sedate of goal celebrations. Hateful, hateful experiences.

These days this is a trip you invite relatives and casual acquaintances along on. Come to Bristol, always a great time down there. QPR, having won none of ten visits between 2004 and 2019, are now unbeaten in five winning four. Even when they turn in a performance as lousy as they were here last year, dominated from start to finish by the vastly superior hosts, Paul Smyth scores from the halfway line and they leave with a point. Bristol City use their big screen to show highlights of their last victory against the opponent of the day before the game, and for this fixture the footage is in black and white.

The total revamp of Ashton Gate has turned it into one of the Championship’s best stadiums, but I think even the City fans would admit it has rather stunted the atmosphere here. The intimidation factor of our early 2000 visits has dissipated entirely. This is a nice day out now. Of course while our love and adoration of Bristol Rovers’ Ian Holloway, and Gerry Francis before him, remains, Ollie is now elsewhere. City don’t have a lot of time for Neil Warnock either, but I’m not sure they’ll have heard of Julien Stephan, so that wind up element of the fixture has also vanished.

And these are two of the Championship’s longest serving clubs. A decade of mostly lower midtable football, both trundling up to Preston year after year, City’s move into the play-offs last year was the first time either side have made that top six in a decade. When we were coming here in the Second Division these were two of the four or five promotion prospects, along with Plymouth, Brighton and Cardiff. City were an unhappy combination of the most cocky and confident, but also the most accident prone, among that cohort. Who can forget Brian Tinnion’s “running scared” and “all over bar the shouting by Easter” interview when the Robins stuck 11 consecutive wins together in 2003/04, only for them to go POP at the worst possible moment and let Plymouth and QPR take the top two spots before losing to Brighton in the play-offs. Oh, how we laughed. Who’s cupping their ear now, Christian?

We’re having to focus on history a lot in these previews – they don’t write themselves, you know – because trying to put together any sort of sensible analysis of the Championship at the moment is like knitting fog. If you had Sheff Utd bottom and Middlesbrough top at this stage then let me shake you warmly by the cock. Ipswich and Southampton, and almost universal season preview pick for the top two spots, are currently 13th and 14th. Birmingham are yet to blaze. Derby’s massive summer overhaul has so far brought them one victory. And Stoke are third. Stoke. A full midweek round of 12 fixtures brought not a single home win.

Bristol City started in red hot form, with a 4-1 win at Bramall Lane on opening night. Given how easily Sheff Utd rolled them over in the play-offs just weeks prior to that it was a result to really sit up and take note of. Gerhard Struber, who I liked a lot when he was at Barnsley, has taken the handbrake off Liam Manning’s “trust the process” considered, careful approach to team and possession building. But injuries, including the always impressive Jason Knight, threaten to pull the wheels off that start – they’ve won one of five at home, and haven’t won in their last three games.

QPR had a shocking first four culminating in a 7-1 shellacking at Coventry and fans confronting players at the side of the pitch at full time. They then won three in a row and are now unbeaten in five having completely changed their entire approach and style of play in a week between Cov away and Charlton at home. Those results, and the addition of Richard Kone at the end of the transfer window, had optimism soaring. Second tier podcasts have been queuing up to label Rangers a dark horse this season. Of course with two chances to move into the early play-off picture against poor Sheff Wed and Oxford teams this week Rangers have regressed again, churning out two really poor performances which they were lucky to take two draws from.

Stephan has faced the first real criticism of his reign so far for making five changes to the team for the midweeker against Oxford where it felt like a full strength team would have got a result (though it didn't at Sheff Wed) and two points were left on the table. He'd answer those critics with a positive result tomorrow. Game three of a three-game week has been a doomsday scenario for QPR teams under successive managers, particularly when it's played away from home (exact details in the form section, with a pretty graph via Stats Andy) and one of the lines that was pushed about the recruitment process this year and the eventual appointment of the Frenchman is the club wanted somebody who has experience of managing squads through those Saturday-midweek-Saturday situations - Stephan had two seasons of European football at Rennes. These are the weeks where he's expected to earn his corn, and it hasn't exactly been a roaring success in this his first one of the season.

It's very early days. If Stoke and Boro are in the top three in May I’ll give you the money myself. Teams are bedding in new signings, new managers are figuring out what they’ve got. I think that’s particularly true of these two sides. I really couldn’t tell you what I think of QPR or their prospects for this season after this week. I look at the performances against Wrexham and Stoke and think why can’t that be a play-off team with these strikers? I then sit through the tedium of Sheff Wed and Oxford where the strikers were arguably our most ineffective players and think why won’t this be another relegation struggle?

You tell me we win 3-0 tomorrow I’m not surprised, you tell me we get tonked I’m not surprised either. The range of potential outcomes in this game stretches 5-0 in either direction and everywhere in between. Could be a fast, open, exciting, attacking game. We’ve got it in us to play like that and Red Bull-influenced Struber certainly prefers his football played on the transition. Or two tired and injury hit teams could slog their way into the international break with a 0-0. I know I’m not helping here, and this is horrible fence sitting for an op ed, but what are we? What sort of team are we? I’m buggered if I know at the moment.

So, let’s curl up by the warm glow of the nostalgia fire while we wait to find out.

Links >>> Strong Struber start – Oppo Profile >>> Late show on opening night – History >>> Championship debut – Referee >>>Bristol City official website >>> The Exiled Robin — Blog >>> One Team In Bristol — Message Board >>> Bristol Post — Local Paper >>> One Stream In Bristol — Podcast >>> Fevs Football Analytics - Contributor's page

Below the fold

Team News: Amadou Mbengue, cheerful but capable of enormous violence, has raced to five yellow cards and a one match ban by the first week in October. The club’s assertion that Kwame Poku wasn’t seriously hamstrung on the opening day against Preston and might make it back in time for Wrexham away is now a month overdue. Ilias Chair is also not likely to be back until after the international break. Koki Saito has been called up to the full Japan squad for the first time for their forthcoming friendlies with Paraguay and Brazil. Jake Clarke-Salter lasted 11 minutes of a reserve game at the start of the week, but scans have apparently come back completely clear. Monsieur Julien says expect more changes tomorrow: “"I think it's very important, particularly at this moment of the season, to use a lot of players because I'm not thinking about the three games, I'm thinking about the next weeks and next months and I know that in November, December, January, we will have a lot of three games in a week. So, it's impossible to play with only 12 or 13 players. So yes, we will probably have some different players on the pitch tomorrow."

Bristol City’s promising start to the season risks being hobbled by injuries, with five key players missing and now three games without a win. Luke McNally, Cam Pring and Joe Williams have been out all season while key duo Max Bird and Jason Knight are both missing on Saturday. Goalkeeper Max O’Leary had a nightmare against QPR last season, racing from his goal and allowing Paul Smyth to score from long range, but he hasn’t played yet this season. Joe Lumley is here as cover, Man Utd’s Radek Vitek has been loaned in as first choice.

Elsewhere: Big game in the NFL’s Eastern Conference tonight as Wrexham Dragons host Birmingham Blue Nose, live from the Chuck E. Cheese Megadome.

Having coughed back into life with a win at Oxford last week, Sheffield Red Stripe fell straight back into midweek defeat and have now lost eight of their nine games so far this season. They have an awkward lunchtime trip to fellow strugglers Hull which will tell us a lot about what Chris Wilder has to sort out at Bramall Lane. Less surprise that Blackburn are struggling, and the natives will start getting very restless indeed if their early game at home to Stoke stays to form, and Sheff Wed continue to make a better fist of it than anybody expected but will have all on with free-scoring Coventry who have backed eight more goals than anyone else in the division.

Six games apart from our own in the Saturday afternoon slot includes Derby v Southampton, two teams tipped for good seasons but yet to really fire. That big John Eustace-led overhaul at Pride Park has so far yielded just one win from ten games and they’ve scored one goal or fewer in eight of those.

Keep away from Millwall on your coupon. Three wins, two draws, three defeats, a 4-0 home loss at home to Coventry during the week to go with the 3-0 home defeat to Middlesbrough and a 2-0 at The Den against Wrexham. West Brom are in South East London this weekend. Good luck predicting that.

Surprise early leaders Middlesbrough have the long trek down to Portsmouth, Preston Knob End host Charlton, and Marti Cifuentes’ Leicester head to Swanselona. There’s a yellow-off between Watford and Oxford to round out the Saturday games.

Sunday sees the return to the old farm derby between Ipswich and Norwich. The Tractor Boys continue to try and sooth relations and calm the mood ahead of the fixture by featuring Marcelino Nunez kissing the badge on the front cover of the matchday programme following his summer switch from Carrow Road.

Referee: Preston-based Edward Duckworth makes his debut at Championship level in this game. Jack and Vera would be very proud. Details.

Form

- Since losing 7-1 at Coventry, QPR are unbeaten in five games and have conceded just three goals. However, an initial spurt of three wins in a row has given way to two draws.

- No team in the league has drawn more than Bristol City’s four. Like QPR, both their games so far this week have finished level (0-0 v Preston, 1-1 v Ipswich).

- QPR have a strangely brilliant recent record at Ashton Gate. The R’s are unbeaten in five here, winning four. Prior to that they’d lost four in a row and were without a win in ten between 2004 and 2019. The run was preserved with a 1-1 draw here last season when Paul Smyth scored from the halfway line in a match City totally dominated.

- The victory here in 2023/24, secured with a first half Ilias Chair goal, was however a real outlier as a QPR away win in game three of a three game week. Over the last ten years, excluding lockdown games without crowds, QPR’s win percentage drops by 27% versus their normal away performance when it’s game three of a three game week. The biggest drop off of any Championship team.

- Bristol City are winless across their last four league games against QPR (D2 L2), scoring just two goals across those matches.

- Richard Kone is the only QPR player to have scored more than one goal so far this season with three. Eight other Rangers players have a goal to their name and there have already been two own goals. By contrast, Bristol City already have Anis Mehmeti on four goals, and Emil Riis and free kick specialist Scott Twine on three each. Twine scored in this fixture last season.

- Mehmeti has been directly involved in 20 goals in the Championship since the start of last season (16 goals, four assists), more than any other Bristol City player.

- Only Coventry (22) have scored more goals in the Championship than Bristol City’s 14.

- Bristol City have only won one of their last five home games. Their surprise 3-1 defeat here against Oxford is their only defeat of the season so far.

- Bristol City are winless in their last three Championship games (D1 L2) – if they fail to win here, they will equal their longest winless run of the previous campaign (four games in December 2024).

- QPR have only lost two of their seven away games in the Championship since the start of April (W4 D1), after losing all six away matches they played across February and March.

Prediction

In our Prediction League for 2025/26 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. QPR_Hibs won last season’s Prediction League at a canter and is lending his thoughts to this year’s previews – previous winner Ned_Kennedys is setting the early pace this year...

“During half-time at Loftus Road on Wednesday night, I thought I’d try to stay awake by treating myself to a ‘nice cup of tea’ from one of the kiosks in the Upper Loft. I did think the price was a bit steep - £3.20 for a tea bag in a cardboard cup – but after taking a sip of the steaming brown liquid, I realised why it was so expensive. QPR must have invested a lot of money into the technology that can make water boil at a temperature hotter than the sun. It was at about the same time that Michi Frey lumbered off the pitch for a little sit down that my drink was cool enough to enjoy.

“That performance against Oxford was a strange one. There were several changes to the starting lineup and, perhaps, we finished with our strongest team on the pitch but couldn’t find the breakthrough goal. I think we may start with nine of those finishers at Bristol on Saturday, with Vale keeping his place over Smyth and Morrison coming in for Mbengue.

“I expect Bristol City to dominate possession at the weekend, which may suit us better and allow us to play on the break. They are sitting in fifth place in the Championship, and we often raise our game when playing away against the stronger sides (Coventry excepted.) Rob Dickie seems to be a permanent fixture at CB in the Robins side with Sinclair Armstrong normally getting five minutes from the bench, though head coach Gerhard Struber (yes, seriously) may be tempted to start him against his former club. A difficult game to call but I’m going for a third draw in a row with Richard Kone to return to goalscoring form. Own goal with our second.”

QPR_Hibs Prediction: Bristol City 2-2 QPR. Scorer – Richard Kone

LFW’s Prediction: Bristol City 1-1 QPR. Scorer – Richard Kone

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Pictures - Reuters Connect

Burnleyhoop added 20:16 - Oct 3 As much as I have been mildly impressed by Vales’ performances, especially his vision and touch, he doesn’t really put the full back under enough pressure or create enough for the strikers. Personally I would be going for pace up top tomorrow, with Smyth and Saito occupying the wings and Burrell supporting Kone up front. Hayden and Madsen in the holding roles, Madsen providing the forward progression. Cook and Morrison at CB. After two dreary, tired looking performances, we really need to up the ante tomorrow.

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londonscottish added 08:54 - Oct 4 It's really hard to know what to expect. The contrast between the free flowing flicks, tricks and marauding attacks against Stoke and the stodge against Oxford is immense. Here's hoping for some exciting Madson/Vale/Saito/Kone/Burrell interplay which can be so good to watch.
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francisbowles added 10:11 - Oct 4 Have Cooke and Hayden got another 90 mins in them? We haven't really got an option with Steve but I'd expect Varane to start in midfield. Akindelini on the bench.
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TacticalR added 14:56 - Oct 4 Thanks for your preview. Hmmm, yes, what sort of team are we? How good are we? Certainly not very good at winning against teams we are supposed to win against. Perhaps the only positive to come out of not winning against Oxford was that we could have ended up near the top of the table without really deserving to, giving a false impression of how good we are. We are probably better off sitting on the shoulder of the teams in the play-off places. Not that a result against Bristol City wouldn't go down well.

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