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All this Budget Speculation 23:28 - Oct 18 with 33125 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

The plan seems to be to raise taxes like IHT and Capital Gains and maybe on Non-Doms etc. whilst changing the rules to borrow more.
There a realistic risk here, if the tax income does not increase as planned, the very rich can work their way around these increases, and if growth is slow then the cost of borrowing increases as bond rates will go up as confidence is lost in the money markets and we will have a slow burn Liz Truss effect.

With all that is happening in the World having some gold makes a lot of sense right now.

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
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All this Budget Speculation on 15:33 - Jul 5 with 1027 viewsSullutaCreturned

All this Budget Speculation on 15:12 - Jul 5 by AnotherJohn

Others too are worried about the impact of Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill on the bond markets and the implications of some of the US tax changes for the UK. Harvey Jones gets a lot of things wrong, but isn't he right about the likely rise in the cost of government borrowing?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-big-beautiful-bill-bad-121105142.html

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/what-trumps-power-grab-means-for-the-uk-3778086

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/22/investing/bond-market-selloff


From what I've seen this will happen, it'll cost the Uk more.

The USA could be causing itself more trouble too, they just shunted the problem down the line by which time it may have grown.

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-trump-tax-bill-averts-183706636.html
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All this Budget Speculation on 16:01 - Jul 5 with 1004 viewsmajorraglan

All this Budget Speculation on 15:12 - Jul 5 by AnotherJohn

Others too are worried about the impact of Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill on the bond markets and the implications of some of the US tax changes for the UK. Harvey Jones gets a lot of things wrong, but isn't he right about the likely rise in the cost of government borrowing?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-big-beautiful-bill-bad-121105142.html

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/what-trumps-power-grab-means-for-the-uk-3778086

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/22/investing/bond-market-selloff


The Yahoo article is written by a guy from the IEA who were the think tank that backed Truss’s disastrous budget.
Things are far from rosy in the garden, but some of the people behind these articles are harbingers of doom, totally against the current government and getting paid to stir up all this negativity.
Let’s hope there are grown ups at the Treasury who can see what’s going on and sort it all out.
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All this Budget Speculation on 16:17 - Jul 5 with 995 viewsAnotherJohn

All this Budget Speculation on 16:01 - Jul 5 by majorraglan

The Yahoo article is written by a guy from the IEA who were the think tank that backed Truss’s disastrous budget.
Things are far from rosy in the garden, but some of the people behind these articles are harbingers of doom, totally against the current government and getting paid to stir up all this negativity.
Let’s hope there are grown ups at the Treasury who can see what’s going on and sort it all out.


What I am struggling to understand is what different path you see ahead for bond yields. What argument can one advance to explain how a big rise in US borrowing does anything other then increase bond yields globally? As far as I can see, there is nothing the UK government can then do to stop the cost of state borrowing rising. If more governments increase their borrowing by selling bonds on the international markets then the result will be that the interest demanded by the investors will rise. It is rather like the law of gravity.
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All this Budget Speculation on 23:03 - Jul 9 with 860 viewsAnotherJohn

Bank of England has same concerns.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/bank-of-england-fires-warning-shot-over-bo
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All this Budget Speculation on 08:30 - Jul 11 with 778 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

Payroll numbers drop 100,000 in May.


https://www.astburyaccountants.co.uk/2025/07/10/employer-nic-hike-drives-record-

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
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All this Budget Speculation on 09:55 - Jul 11 with 745 viewsWhiterockin

The UK economy "surprisingly" shrunk for the second month in a row, clearly showing that the government's plans are not working. Surely Reeves has to go immediately to give a new chancellor time before the autumn budget.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6mvem8neno
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All this Budget Speculation on 10:00 - Jul 11 with 734 viewsDr_Winston

All this Budget Speculation on 09:55 - Jul 11 by Whiterockin

The UK economy "surprisingly" shrunk for the second month in a row, clearly showing that the government's plans are not working. Surely Reeves has to go immediately to give a new chancellor time before the autumn budget.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6mvem8neno


As incompetent as Reeves is, I'm not sure how much difference another Chancellor would make when the Government is held hostage by it's own factions.

We saw how the idea of a lesser increase, not even a cut, just a slowing of the increase in the disability benefits bill was received on the Labour back benches.

Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back.

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All this Budget Speculation on 10:20 - Jul 11 with 714 viewsmajorraglan

All this Budget Speculation on 10:00 - Jul 11 by Dr_Winston

As incompetent as Reeves is, I'm not sure how much difference another Chancellor would make when the Government is held hostage by it's own factions.

We saw how the idea of a lesser increase, not even a cut, just a slowing of the increase in the disability benefits bill was received on the Labour back benches.


Sadly, that’s all to often the case as we’ve seen repeatedly over the years, I have to say it does seem to have become a lot worse over the last 9 years since the Brexit vote with all sorts of factions and groups holding out for their own ends.
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All this Budget Speculation on 10:20 - Jul 11 with 713 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

All this Budget Speculation on 10:00 - Jul 11 by Dr_Winston

As incompetent as Reeves is, I'm not sure how much difference another Chancellor would make when the Government is held hostage by it's own factions.

We saw how the idea of a lesser increase, not even a cut, just a slowing of the increase in the disability benefits bill was received on the Labour back benches.


I get the feeling that Starmer is increasingly hamstrung by the back benches leading to messy compromises of little benefit.

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
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All this Budget Speculation on 07:59 - Jul 22 with 586 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

Tax take following last budget not good enough.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwygq5plz04o

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
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All this Budget Speculation on 09:12 - Jul 22 with 537 viewsDr_Winston

All this Budget Speculation on 07:59 - Jul 22 by JACKMANANDBOY

Tax take following last budget not good enough.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwygq5plz04o


So the moron will undoubtedly try to put taxes up again, resulting in a "lower than expected" tax take, and so on.

Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back.

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All this Budget Speculation on 20:18 - Jul 22 with 480 viewsWhiterockin

All this Budget Speculation on 09:12 - Jul 22 by Dr_Winston

So the moron will undoubtedly try to put taxes up again, resulting in a "lower than expected" tax take, and so on.


There is a lot of sense in the following sayings.

Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves.

You can drink the milk from a cow, but if you slaughter it to eat the meat there will be no more milk.

IMO both are relevant here.
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All this Budget Speculation on 20:58 - Jul 22 with 454 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

All this Budget Speculation on 20:18 - Jul 22 by Whiterockin

There is a lot of sense in the following sayings.

Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves.

You can drink the milk from a cow, but if you slaughter it to eat the meat there will be no more milk.

IMO both are relevant here.


The country is up to its neck in debt. When you are in a hole stop digging comes to mind.

Starmer will compromise and fiddle around and we will slowly decline.

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
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All this Budget Speculation on 09:54 - Jul 23 with 400 viewsGwyn737

All this Budget Speculation on 20:58 - Jul 22 by JACKMANANDBOY

The country is up to its neck in debt. When you are in a hole stop digging comes to mind.

Starmer will compromise and fiddle around and we will slowly decline.


We’ve got to the point where dramatic changes have to be made.

I’m always quite sceptical when I here that this or that should be taught in school, but reading and hearing bout the lack of understanding on how the state pension works over the last couple of days with the announcements made, I genuinely think I should be talked about in secondary schools.

There’s real hardship over the horizon for younger people if that’s not tackled.
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All this Budget Speculation on 10:01 - Jul 23 with 397 viewsDr_Winston

All this Budget Speculation on 09:54 - Jul 23 by Gwyn737

We’ve got to the point where dramatic changes have to be made.

I’m always quite sceptical when I here that this or that should be taught in school, but reading and hearing bout the lack of understanding on how the state pension works over the last couple of days with the announcements made, I genuinely think I should be talked about in secondary schools.

There’s real hardship over the horizon for younger people if that’s not tackled.


Yep. A lot of people still labour under the misconception that the State Pension is basically a savings fund. It isn't. Ironically if it was it would probably be in a better state.

It goes back to what's been said before. There are not enough people paying in to the system, and too many people taking out. A crash is inevitable unless hard decisions are made.

Personally I'd be looking at means testing the Pension and removing entitlement to it from anyone who could have contributed but hasn't long before I look at bumping the age up again. I'd also look at maybe coming up with some way of paying contributions into an investment fund instead of just into general Government funds for future generations.

Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back.

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All this Budget Speculation on 10:45 - Jul 23 with 373 viewsGwyn737

All this Budget Speculation on 10:01 - Jul 23 by Dr_Winston

Yep. A lot of people still labour under the misconception that the State Pension is basically a savings fund. It isn't. Ironically if it was it would probably be in a better state.

It goes back to what's been said before. There are not enough people paying in to the system, and too many people taking out. A crash is inevitable unless hard decisions are made.

Personally I'd be looking at means testing the Pension and removing entitlement to it from anyone who could have contributed but hasn't long before I look at bumping the age up again. I'd also look at maybe coming up with some way of paying contributions into an investment fund instead of just into general Government funds for future generations.


Agree with all of that.

The other big misunderstanding (apart from thinking of it as a savings scheme) is that it’s the worst in Europe.

The way pensions are managed between countries are apples and oranges - in the main they can’t be compared. The flat figure had been grabbed onto by bad actors to stir anger.

Figures yesterday showed the the current birth rate is 1.44 and it needs to be 2.1 just to keep up. It’s nowhere near and goes a long way to explain the reliance on economic migration.
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All this Budget Speculation on 10:56 - Jul 23 with 357 viewsDr_Winston

All this Budget Speculation on 10:45 - Jul 23 by Gwyn737

Agree with all of that.

The other big misunderstanding (apart from thinking of it as a savings scheme) is that it’s the worst in Europe.

The way pensions are managed between countries are apples and oranges - in the main they can’t be compared. The flat figure had been grabbed onto by bad actors to stir anger.

Figures yesterday showed the the current birth rate is 1.44 and it needs to be 2.1 just to keep up. It’s nowhere near and goes a long way to explain the reliance on economic migration.


You're spot on about the pension figures. Unfortunately too many people just fixate on the easy numbers instead of looking at the whole picture.

The problem is that immigration is the "easy" fix. Just ramp up the numbers without a care for community cohesion, whether or not the incoming will actually fix the problem and even if they do, what will happen when they themselves get old.

We need to be encouraging the people born here to have more children. Start a National childcare service. Tax breaks for parents. Build more houses and offer a discount/refund to anyone who starts a family within five years. Enrol the kids from birth into a private pension scheme.

Anything other than what is happening now.

Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back.

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All this Budget Speculation on 11:07 - Jul 23 with 334 viewstrampie

All this Budget Speculation on 10:01 - Jul 23 by Dr_Winston

Yep. A lot of people still labour under the misconception that the State Pension is basically a savings fund. It isn't. Ironically if it was it would probably be in a better state.

It goes back to what's been said before. There are not enough people paying in to the system, and too many people taking out. A crash is inevitable unless hard decisions are made.

Personally I'd be looking at means testing the Pension and removing entitlement to it from anyone who could have contributed but hasn't long before I look at bumping the age up again. I'd also look at maybe coming up with some way of paying contributions into an investment fund instead of just into general Government funds for future generations.


Means testing is a disincentive to save and work.

Means testing if ever considered should only be entertained if it was brought in with a warning to the public that it will come in in about 50 years time.
Even then it will be expensive to impliment and police.

It should not be brought in in a short time frame as you could have (and it would definitely happen over and over) two people living next door to each other earning the same money (possibly working in the same workplace) with one person saving for their retirement for decades and the other not saving at all and spending all their money, the wasteful one would get a state pension and the responsible person would get nothing, that would not be fair in the slightest.

Continually being banned by Planet Swans for Porthcawl and then being reinstated.
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All this Budget Speculation on 11:10 - Jul 23 with 344 viewsGwyn737

All this Budget Speculation on 10:56 - Jul 23 by Dr_Winston

You're spot on about the pension figures. Unfortunately too many people just fixate on the easy numbers instead of looking at the whole picture.

The problem is that immigration is the "easy" fix. Just ramp up the numbers without a care for community cohesion, whether or not the incoming will actually fix the problem and even if they do, what will happen when they themselves get old.

We need to be encouraging the people born here to have more children. Start a National childcare service. Tax breaks for parents. Build more houses and offer a discount/refund to anyone who starts a family within five years. Enrol the kids from birth into a private pension scheme.

Anything other than what is happening now.


So much comes back to housing.

The massive transfer of wealth through property is at the root of so many difficulties.

It’s why I always seem to bite with the ‘the young should stop buying coffee and avocados lot’ by those who believe they’ve done ok by working hard and doing the right thing, which may of course be true, but often it’s also because they also bought a house at the right time which has grown in value exponentially without having to do much.
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All this Budget Speculation on 11:53 - Jul 23 with 322 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

All this Budget Speculation on 11:10 - Jul 23 by Gwyn737

So much comes back to housing.

The massive transfer of wealth through property is at the root of so many difficulties.

It’s why I always seem to bite with the ‘the young should stop buying coffee and avocados lot’ by those who believe they’ve done ok by working hard and doing the right thing, which may of course be true, but often it’s also because they also bought a house at the right time which has grown in value exponentially without having to do much.


It would've interesting to know how much property wealth goes on care home fees, my Dad's bill over 11 years was £600,000 including his house. That was £600,000 of wealth tax he paid.

Of course, property wealth will get transferred at death to the next generation, less taxes.

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All this Budget Speculation on 12:05 - Jul 23 with 307 viewsGwyn737

All this Budget Speculation on 11:53 - Jul 23 by JACKMANANDBOY

It would've interesting to know how much property wealth goes on care home fees, my Dad's bill over 11 years was £600,000 including his house. That was £600,000 of wealth tax he paid.

Of course, property wealth will get transferred at death to the next generation, less taxes.


That’s a really good point.

Another example of individuals money being sucked into a hedge fund.
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All this Budget Speculation on 12:21 - Jul 23 with 298 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

All this Budget Speculation on 12:05 - Jul 23 by Gwyn737

That’s a really good point.

Another example of individuals money being sucked into a hedge fund.


Yes, care homes should be not for profit rather like hospices. It should not be possible to make a profit from people who need help to live in their old age

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
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All this Budget Speculation on 16:35 - Aug 6 with 146 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

Looks like the last budget didn't ' fix the foundations '. Time for another slogan.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn85vyd1epzo
[Post edited 6 Aug 16:37]

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
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All this Budget Speculation on 16:40 - Aug 6 with 130 viewsWhiterockin

All this Budget Speculation on 16:35 - Aug 6 by JACKMANANDBOY

Looks like the last budget didn't ' fix the foundations '. Time for another slogan.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn85vyd1epzo
[Post edited 6 Aug 16:37]


Asked during a visit to a school in Buckinghamshire whether he disagreed with Niesr's assessment that tax rises would be needed to raise revenue, the prime minister said "some of the figures that are being put out are not figures that I recognise".


If it wasn't so embarrassing it would be frightening.
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All this Budget Speculation on 17:30 - Aug 6 with 110 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

All this Budget Speculation on 16:40 - Aug 6 by Whiterockin

Asked during a visit to a school in Buckinghamshire whether he disagreed with Niesr's assessment that tax rises would be needed to raise revenue, the prime minister said "some of the figures that are being put out are not figures that I recognise".


If it wasn't so embarrassing it would be frightening.


I think he's more of a knave than a fool.

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
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