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Harry’s game
Harry’s game
Wednesday, 27th Feb 2013 23:26 by Nick Gordon Brown

As the situation moves beyond critical for QPR at the bottom of the table Nick Gordon Brown casts an eye over the permutations for LoftforWords.

We can still do it, Harry keeps telling us. Everyone thinks he’s mad, he adds, but he remains convinced. He’s not the only one. On Sky’s Monday Night Football, despite having just torn half the QPR team apart for the catalogue of errors that led to his beloved United’s decisive second goal last Saturday, Mr Neville himself said he too still felt Rangers could still do it – whilst adding the caveat that said thought was disappearing further and further back into his “thick skull” (his words, not mine).

Neville gave presenter Ed Chamberlin - who now has down to a tee the role of eager student to Gary’s trendy young professor – two reasons. One – the manager. Two – the run in.

We then saw a nice red and blue graphic showing said run-in, with Gaz helpfully pointing out to the nation what Rangers fans have known for months, namely that we have a run of eight games through March and April all bar one of which could, under any normal circumstances, be described as winnable. “What about the last three games then,” we all chorused at the screen. “They’ll take care of themselves,” said the Neviller, implication being that had we somehow cobbled together a string of wins, momentum and increased self-belief would enable us to scrap whatever additional points we needed from Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool to edge over the line.

This got me thinking...when Harry said only the other day that he thought another 20 points would see us right, he clearly saw these eight games as being the ones where most of that haul could be accrued. And I started to wonder – has this been his thinking all along? After all, we all know there are some managers who split the season into chunks and have points targets for each one. Iain Dowie springs to mind – though it’s odds on he felt he was more or less on target when Flavio Briatore binned him for his team’s failure to shoot at Swansea’s stand-in ‘keeper.

Four points from 13 games was what he inherited. He didn’t talk about it quite as much as he did when he arrived at White Hart Lane (“we only had two points from eight games when I got here y’know” – yes Harry we do think we’d heard mention of that) but there was much talk of miracles and of “my toughest challenge”. I became convinced Harry must have split the remaining 25 fixtures into Dowie-esque bite-sized chunks, with approximate points targets for each – so I decided, albeit retrospectively, to do the same, to put myself in Harry’s loafers for a day...

New manager bounce

With his reputation as a master motivator, ‘Arry must have expected this. My guess is the team met his expectations with battling (if in the latter case unconvincing) points at Sunderland and Wigan, but I’m sure he would have hoped for two wins from the Fulham and Villa home games. The somewhat limp draw against the Villains would have put us two points behind schedule, but securing the elusive win against Fulham, and the manner of it, would have given him hope for the next phase of games.

Christmas rush

Three games in eight days, not easy for any team. The way he set us up for the trip to St. James’s Park suggests Harry was gambling on a point. With the Toon then struggling themselves, many Rs felt this was unduly negative but when the mission failed, Redknapp had Bosingwa-gate to deflect attention. However, worse was to come – I reckon he’d have been targeting a haul of four points from the quick fire home games against WBA and Liverpool. As we all know, none were gathered – so these three games saw us drop a further five points behind target (seven in total), with all the confidence gained from the Fulham victory surely drained away - albeit with the transfer window round the corner.

Nightmare January – not!

The New Year run of fixtures was the last thing we needed in our perilous position, but this is when Harry Redknapp won huge respect from Rs fans as he dug deep into his reserves of experience to conjure up an unlikely set of results. Given their home record, surely a point at West Ham was the realistic target. This was duly attained – but three points at Stamford Bridge was the most welcome of unlikely bonuses. I really think the most our leader would have hoped for from home games against Spurs and City was scrapping a point from one of them...so the fact that we got two, added to the Chelsea three, meant four points were clawed back – leaving us three behind target.

Futile February

Alas the wheels came back off this month. Much as the outcome of the United match was wholly predictable, surely a win against Norwich was seen as a must, and a point at a Swansea with other things on their minds would also have been hoped for. So another three points dropped, six behind target in all.

Beware the ides of March

All of which brings us to the here and now. My amateur sleuthing has us six points behind where Harry hoped we’d be...namely 23 points and with a better goal difference. This would have seen us neck and neck with three other teams, with a further four (everyone up to Newcastle in thirteenth) not completely out of sight over the horizon.

However, despite the setbacks, Harry has now had a chance to factor in other team’s results. Their pivotal win at Loftus Road came in the middle of a great run for our next opponents, Southampton – and despite their bizarre decision to change manager in the midst of this run, their impressive performances have continued. It has not been enough, however, to put them out of sight and the 4-2 reverse at Newcastle on Sunday gives hope that their early season defensive frailties have yet to be fully erased. Likewise did any of us think Villa would be this bad for this long? And hands up who thought Wigan would have started to improve and put daylight between them and the trap door before now. Reading had a great run but still failed to pull away from the relegation scrap, whilst Sunderland and West Ham are looking nervously over their shoulders, both showing signs of the form that suggests an unwanted plummet into the bottom three isn’t out of the question.

Armed with this additional info, Harry has calculated that 37 points will probably be enough. He said this after the Swansea defeat, so assuming he expected nothing from United, he was targeting 20 points from the remaining 11 games that now confront us. So where does he see these coming from?

Five wins and five draws would garner those 20 points, but surely even the wildest hooped optimist doesn’t expect a team that has lost 17 of its previous 27 games to lose just one of the next 11? More probable is that the unconvincing straw Harry is clutching at sees us win six and draw two – which even allows us the, ahem, ‘luxury’ of three defeats.

So where is he looking for the six wins? Presumably Wigan, Villa and Reading are musts because of their ‘six pointer’ nature. Arguably the Saints fixture also falls into this bracket, but I think Redknapp would settle for a hard-earned point from an improved performance in this one. An out of form Sunderland and a Stoke team that doesn’t travel well are undoubtedly home games we must win if the escape is to come off. That would leave one more win and one more draw to be concocted from the games with Fulham, Everton and Liverpool away, and Arsenal and Newcastle at home.

Looked at like that, it doesn’t look so crazy after all – a raft of games against other poor teams, inconsistent teams, distracted teams, under-performing teams. We’ve played the top four home and away already – hell, we even snatched six points off ‘em.

However, to take us back to where we started, and to paraphrase Gary Neville – there are two reasons why I think we will fall short and why I fear we won’t even go down fighting, but rather with a whimper and an embarrassing points tally.

Team spirit

Fragile at best in any team that has endured a season such as ours, I just don’t see it at all in this squad. Every time you see a spark of it, that spark seems to be snuffed out in the next match. Talent-wise, this squad has proved to be way short of the sum of its collective parts...and it falls even shorter if you try to make up for that with work ethic. It’s been said time and again on LFW and elsewhere that we have an unedifying mix of triers with limited ability and talented players with questionable attitude. On this score, only the rudderless Villa look as weak.

Lack of a settled team / formation

More by luck than judgment - injury and suspension denying him the chance to feature his planned forward pairing of Cisse and Zamora - Mark Hughes fell upon a 4-2-3-1 formation that managed to scrap its way to last season’s life-saving five home wins through a mixture of bus parking and counter-attacking goals. Crucially, we also kept a consistent back four – even with an error-prone player like Anton Ferdinand in it, there is no substitute for a settled defence.

By contrast, Harry Redknapp currently shows no signs of knowing either his preferred starting 11 or his preferred formation. Team selections in recent weeks have frankly appeared scattergun at best. Cesar, Samba and Hill look like guaranteed picks. Beyond that Townsend seems to be making one of the wide berths his own with SWP finally ousted as a result and Taarabt looks a certain starter, but whether that is as a ‘false nine’, playing off the striker, wide in a three or wide in a four is uncertain.

We have four full backs in Bosingwa, Traore, Onouha and Fabio seemingly being rotated in two slots with Ben Haim and Suk Young waiting in the wings too. Midfield-wise, one week we start with Mackie’s legendary industry, the next with Granero’s supposed artistry (currently missing in action). Start Derry and we lack pace, start Diakite or Mbia and we lack sanity. Start Jenas and we lack...well quite a lot actually. Start Park and, on the evidence so far, we add little bar squeals from his fan club temporarily housed at Loftus Road. Start Hoilet and...Well we don’t start Hoilet, do we?

Ahead of this plethora of misfiring midfielders we find Harry’s biggest gamble of all. With Cisse and Campbell farmed out, we’re reliant for goals on a one-legged old warhorse, an oh so sensitive F1 car of a player new to the league, and a man sent back from a Championship basement club for not being good enough.

Even in the highly unlikely event that Zamora and Remy can both stay fit together for any length of time, which Redknapp’s recent pronouncements suggest he may be banking on, this causes a whole load of new problems. For the first time in over a year, we’d be playing 4-4-2 again...and we’re back to trying to square the circle from our imbalanced midfield pack. Of course Remy, Taarabt and Townsend playing in a three behind Zamora (with Hoilet and Mackie as back up) actually looks pretty tasty. Keep a settled seven behind them and...No, no – STOP IT!

Pictures – Action Images

Photo: Action Images



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ozexile added 00:21 - Feb 28
Great article. Lets face it we're gone. The only way we may get through is if we score first in the winnable games. If we concede first it's game over. Poor harry has problems everywhere. He cannot get 2 decent games in a row out of any player. A midfield that can't pass and get a nose bleed when they cross the halfway line. No strikers (all unfit). A defence that I'd back my local pub team to score against. And set piece takers who continually hit the first man. If you can look past those deficiencies then we're in with a shout.
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Kaos_Agent added 04:45 - Feb 28
Thanks Nick. A rational assessment of an irrational situation. Harry cannot afford to worry about splitting and chunking and targeting the remaining games. He has to worry about splitting defenses and targeting some freaking goals into the opposing net. Agree with ozexile that we have to score first, to keep spirits and confidence up. Start JH. Keep Remy and BZ upright. There are possibilities with JB and AT up the flanks. Keep pushing forward. Set pieces simply have to improve both on offense and defense. Fix these minor things and Bob's your uncle. COYRs.
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stuabd added 06:39 - Feb 28
Great article. Very interesting and some good points about why we seem unlikely to get the wins we need.
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DesertBoot added 06:49 - Feb 28
What else can a manager say other than he believes a struggling club can stay up.
"Goals pay the rent" which is why Premier League eviction awaits.
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QPRski added 07:26 - Feb 28
Nick, a good article and a very nteresting read. I think that we al have done the permutations for the next 11 games

Whatever the theory, we will empirically see if we can deliver over the next 5 games of Soton (A), Sund'land(H), Villa (A), Fulham (A) and Wigan (H).

On paper, we can deliver the the "20 points" to the end of the season, but like you, I fear that we currently lack the spirit, fight, hunger, discipline and dertimination to win against such "easier teams". I truely hope that I am wrong as Harry's strength is man motivation. We will soon know as the time of delivery and reckoning is upon us.
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RonisRs added 08:32 - Feb 28
http://betting.betfair.com/football/premier-league/the-betfair-contrarian-270213
interesting article from betfair, who think we can win the stay of excercution. Nick, while your article is very good, I too have my doubts, but most of me is being the optimist.
lets get behind the team and give us a chance
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isawqpratwcity added 09:13 - Feb 28
Nice piece, Nick.

Agreed about the team spirit, we're never firing on all cylinders, and that for me was the absolute first necessity for the Incompetent One's replacement, but tbf team spirit has improved miles from the bunch looking embarrassed to be seen together wearing hoops.

As for the formation, yes it disturbs me that sometimes we look genuinely solid in defense and other times pathetically porous. And as for the lack of an attack, oy veh!

Come on, HR, get it together for a couple of games, build some optimism and get the ball rolling!
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adhoc_qpr added 09:48 - Feb 28
Good analysis but the only thing i think you've missed is goals - we don't score them in open play, we don't score them from set pieces - hell we barely create chances!

Not sure we'll win one more game, let alone 5 or 6, although we do seem capable of goalless or low scoring draws to make the points total a bit more respectable.
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fakekerby added 10:07 - Feb 28
We need Remy to start all of the remaining games and score in at least half of them to stand a chance IMO. On top of that we need a few match winning performances from Adel where games are close or lacking in much quality.

We can afford a few defeats, but we need to start winning games, draws aren't going to do much for us now so it's worth being more gung ho from now on.

And the fans need to make Loftus Road a fortress again, our home performances were driven on by amazing support last season and we need this mentality once more.

My main concern, other than those aforementioned in the article, is that we just can't control a game, if we do score we inevitably concede within a few minutes, and we only seem to perform well against the bigger teams when we're defending most of the game with the odd counter attack.

My only hopes are last season's home run and the likes of Wigan pulling out 8 wins out of nowhere in the past. Very few of our performances this season indicate this is possible, but football is an unpredictable game which is why we love it.
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dixiedean added 10:24 - Feb 28
Great article. Our most mental gamble was re strikers, as we went into the final straight ( ie post-window) with only Remy asour 1 fully fit & sufficiently able striker- and then he went & got injured. Maybe they tried to get others in ( Odemwingie clearly!) but this should have been a nailed-on priority. What continues to frustrate me , and many others it would seem, is our pathetic lack of ability at dead-balls. We've recently seen lower league teams like Oldham & Bradford terrorise Prem teams ( and score more than once) from corners,yet we rarely threaten. I fail to see what is so difficult about delivering a decent corner. Why don't they practise is for hours on end til they get it right ? Like snooker or darts players practise their skills for hours on end. Cricketers bowl at one stump etc etc. I'd love to know what our lot do in training.But back to the point- yes, we could pull it off, but it will take most players improving their current form/output by at least 50% CONSISTENTLY for several games back to back.And several need to raise it by 100%. Trouble is the team & individuals have shown no real evidence they're capable of such a turnaround. I have another meaning for Harry's Loafers, and it ain't his shoes :)
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Myke added 11:06 - Feb 28
Excellent piece Nick.For the first couple of paragraphs I thought you were genuinely making a case for us to survive and my I was wondering 'is he for real'? Then I realised you were setting us (or at least those who haven't already copped on that we're going down)up for a serious dose of reality. This reality is that we deserve to be relegated. We are, by some distance, the worst team in the division. I have watched the other relegation candidates over the last few weeks and they all (even Reading for goodness sake) have much more about them than we have. The only thing I disagree with in regard to Neville's comments is that we are lacking in sufficient quality.I don't accept that pound for pound the players in our squad are inferior to Reading,Wigan,Villa,Southampton, West Ham.Sunderland, Stoke, Norwich at the very least. On that basis, we should be mid-table at least.No what we are lacking is just about everything else; team spirit, guts,cohesion,organisation, conviction,belief and confidence.Of all these, only the latter two are excusable given our current situation
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Chicken added 12:52 - Feb 28
Well written and insightful article, better than most you read on the sports pages these days.
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double_m added 14:13 - Feb 28
Really good article, one that provides me and other straw clutchers with a means to part the water.
Keep the faith everyone as we speak, Harry's thumbing through his full and weighty 'Man Management' dossier.
It can be done.
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Antti_Heinola added 14:39 - Feb 28
Good article, think you're spot on about Harry's thinking there, but you're right, the spirit and the quality just isn't there. We're down and have rarely looked like anything other than a doomed team...
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baz_qpr added 15:20 - Feb 28
We started the season playing 4-4-2 and that was a huge part of the problem, we just dont have the two central midfielders to play this way, in fact I think we have won one game in about 20 playing 4-4-2 across both seasons. Why we dont play 4-2-3-1 again is beyond me, it got us up, it kept us up, it suits Adel best, sadly however it does not suit Remy
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simmo added 17:50 - Feb 28
Cheers for that, Nick. Good stuff.
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