| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead 08:43 - Feb 22 with 1940 views | PatfromPoole |
It is increasingly clear to me that we need to get promoted this season, or else we are likely to have several years in the Championship.
If we do not get promoted, we are highly likely to lose the following players:-
Harwood-Bellis (loan)
Downes (loan)
Brooks (loan)
Fraser (loan)
Che Adams (out of contract)
Stu Armstrong (out of contract)
KWP (1 year left on contract)
That is basically 7 of our best players, and I could only see us getting about £10 million for KWP, given he has only 1 year left.
£10 million is sod all to come into the coffers, when we are looking at having to replace all those players.
We would also be faced with still having the likes of Onuachu, Sulemana and Lyanco still costing us a fortune in wages.
We may well have to sell the likes of Bazunu, Adam Armstrong, Bednarek and Perraud (all of whom would probably have clubs interested in them) just to try and balance the books.
A perfect storm.
As some may recall, I tipped Middlesboro to win the League this season, mainly because of Carrick. They should have been promoted last season, as they were a very good side.
However, their best players last season were loan players, and they simply have not replaced them this season with players of the same quality.
I suspect we would be in a very similar position this summer if we don't go up.
This may not be the end of the world for a lot of fans. VAR has ruined the game, and we would be spared that until they inevitably bring it into the Championship.
However, I see next season being an even bigger test for Russell Martin if we weren’t to go up this season, even more so than if we were in the Prem. |  |
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| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 09:12 - Feb 22 with 1881 views | saint901 |
I would agree with the sentiment but caution that a couple of poor results does not mean that our chances of promotion have gone.
I have previously said that I think RM is a few percent short of what we need to get promoted and that we have some players who are just not good enough for the first 11.
Unfortunately those aspects have met recently and we see failed experiments in playing Mara and Sulemana which have proven (again) that they're not performers at this level. Why RM decides this deep into the season to do this, baffles me but I see it as a display of confidence/arrogance and being something about his ego rather than being focused on the job.
we need to find the form of earlier in the season (and hope that the luck we've enjoyed this seasin returns), play our best 11 and get back to winning.
If we are not promoted The players you've listed will leave and we're then looking at a first 11 in which Mara/Sulemana etc start every week and given the paucity of our squad, we will be Championship plodders for a while. |  | | |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 09:51 - Feb 22 with 1836 views | Butty101 |
I cant see premiership clubs sniffing round Bazunu, Adam Armstrong and Bednarek. The first two are not championship quality at best. Bednarek didnt have suitors last season so im not sure he would now. I think going to villa on loan damaged his reputation. |  |
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| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 10:01 - Feb 22 with 1821 views | saintmark1976 |
A brilliant post Pat and almost exactly what I was saying to my mate whilst coming home in the car after Russell Martins mega cock up on Tuesday.
However, all is not yet lost given that there are thirteen games to play and automatic promotion still remains a distinct possibility.
If it’s the playoffs, there will be a lot of teams looking at the list of players you detail and thinking they don’t fancy their chances against us.
Keep the faith Pat and remember the Fat Lady, it’s not over until she sings. | |
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| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 10:06 - Feb 22 with 1811 views | Ifonly |
I'd add:
- Parachute payments start reducing next year if we're still in the Champs
- Even if we do go up, we will probably lose a number of loan players and have to rebuild. That happened to Burnley this season and Fulham a few seasons ago the year they went straight back down. It's a problem of building a side around loan players at any level.
- Things may be tough for us next year in the Champs, but they'd be a hell of a lot tougher in the PL! You say it would be tougher in the Champs. I can see what you mean but I don't agree. If we go up, we'll be struggling against relegation from day one. | | | |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 12:42 - Feb 22 with 1706 views | PatfromPoole |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 10:06 - Feb 22 by Ifonly |
I'd add:
- Parachute payments start reducing next year if we're still in the Champs
- Even if we do go up, we will probably lose a number of loan players and have to rebuild. That happened to Burnley this season and Fulham a few seasons ago the year they went straight back down. It's a problem of building a side around loan players at any level.
- Things may be tough for us next year in the Champs, but they'd be a hell of a lot tougher in the PL! You say it would be tougher in the Champs. I can see what you mean but I don't agree. If we go up, we'll be struggling against relegation from day one. |
The other problem with relying on loan players is that typically you won't be able to sign them early in the summer.
Most of the loan business will be done towards the end of the transfer window for fairly obvious reasons.
This isn't good for us, as it seems to take a few weeks for new players to get to grips with our style of play. So they wouldn't benefit from having pre-season training with us.
I think if we went up, we would sign Harwood-Bellis (think we are committed to this) and we would probably get Fraser. I think Downes would be a possible, however Brooks would be extremely unlikely.
We also might be able to persuade Che Adams and Stu Armstrong to sign new contracts. Possibly also KWP.
I think we would have more chance of keeping the nucleus of the team together if we went up, and then use the SKY money from getting promoted to help fund investment in the 3 or 4 additional new players we would need to really make a difference and give us a shot at being mid-table in the Prem. [Post edited 22 Feb 21:31]
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| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 19:17 - Feb 22 with 1532 views | felly1 |
This catch 22 situation we're in... ie get promoted, struggle and likely lose most games..
Or exist in the Championship.. Great fun. Wins no VAR but the liklihood we'd lose our best players and turn into Stoke over the course of three seasons.
My wish would be a Prem 1 and Prem 2.
20 teams in each division and TV money split more equally between 40 clubs.
Relegation would not be the disaster it's become since the Prem started. | | | |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 20:15 - Feb 22 with 1474 views | LondonSaint76 |
Seconded Pat, excellent post. I would add to that [glass half empty]
- The downgrade to the parachute payment the second year down
- Would probably lose Wilcox, that’s if he’s not already decided to go
- We will be up against three of Sheffield Utd, Burnley, Luton or Everton plus the also rans from this season’s promotion race. I can see a lot of those teams strengthening significantly this summer- I was amazed to read that we are only the 10th richest Club in this division when measured by the wealth of the owners - for example, Solak is listed at a touch over £1bn, the Ipswich owner/s about £5bn! If people think this is a tough League to get out of this season wait until August…
And glass half full
- Still a quarter of the season to go, twists and turns still to come.
- We still have a chance of going up
- If we don’t, yes we will lose players but the likes of Dibling and Meghoma can come in and do a job
- If someone does want Bazunu perhaps we can get Lis back in from loan
- Bella (tomato) Ketchup comes back to dominate the defence alongside Bednarek if HB goes elsewhere 🙂
- Ross Stewart will be just about be fit for the crucial games in the last third of next season 😀
- Larios (who??) will be a revelation 😁
- Because the Turks won’t pay the money, Tall Paul will be back, confidence at an all time high, and score 30 😂 [Post edited 22 Feb 20:33]
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| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 20:30 - Feb 22 with 1458 views | Berber |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 19:17 - Feb 22 by felly1 |
This catch 22 situation we're in... ie get promoted, struggle and likely lose most games..
Or exist in the Championship.. Great fun. Wins no VAR but the liklihood we'd lose our best players and turn into Stoke over the course of three seasons.
My wish would be a Prem 1 and Prem 2.
20 teams in each division and TV money split more equally between 40 clubs.
Relegation would not be the disaster it's become since the Prem started. |
Yes, just look at how long clubs like Sunderland struggle to get promoted. We are quite close to the threshold where the quality in the side is not owned by us. Failure this year will lead to a further degraded squad next year. There really is no option than to get promoted, and struggle if need be. As in much of life, standing still is the same as beginning to die. |  |
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| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 20:45 - Feb 22 with 1448 views | LondonSaint76 |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 20:30 - Feb 22 by Berber |
Yes, just look at how long clubs like Sunderland struggle to get promoted. We are quite close to the threshold where the quality in the side is not owned by us. Failure this year will lead to a further degraded squad next year. There really is no option than to get promoted, and struggle if need be. As in much of life, standing still is the same as beginning to die. |
Forest has to be one of the most chilling examples, From the dizzy heights of D1 champions and European Cup winners to relegation in 20 years or thereabouts then it took them about 25 years to resurface in the top flight. I also remember us playing Oldham in D1 at The Dell in the early 90’s and they’ve dropped out of the 92 - OK, not the size of Club we were / are but still in the top flight with us back in the day… | |
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| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 22:53 - Feb 22 with 1349 views | kernow |
Can’t see a promotion so cheer up and enjoy the prospect of a real local derby v Poopey next season. | | | |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 00:09 - Feb 23 with 1309 views | Ripleys_revenge |
Good post and calls into question what is basically the point in football anymore! I am enjoying the champ much much more than the prem but I don’t think I’d be saying that if we were mid table long term fodder. So promotion really is key this season, however playing in the prem again really does not excite me at all. Prem 1 and prem 2 is a decent shout | | | |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 01:29 - Feb 23 with 1290 views | 1ASIN12 |
If we do not go up then this could be out best side we would see for a number of seasons.
Next season’s team could be a lot different and a lot weaker .
This season so far has been great and it’s good to go to football and not lose most weeks, however we really need promotion.
The championship is not good when you are mid table and worse if you are struggling. | | | |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 02:05 - Feb 23 with 1286 views | Ripleys_revenge |
I remember when we were relegated from the prem previously we had a team that many people expected us to blow other championship teams away with (John viafara ?!). Then we f@cked it in the playoffs, down to league 1 and eventually rebuilt properly from there. Eerily familiar feel | | | |
| Sh1t or bust - perfect storm ahead on 08:31 - Feb 23 with 1185 views | PatfromPoole |
It is one of those situations where in 3 or 4 years’ time we will look back at this current team and see how many of them are having successful careers in the Prem.
I think there will be a few of those players from this team.
I just hope that those successful careers are still with Saints. | |
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