| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 20:43 - Sep 19 with 4875 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
Nobody likes a smart arse, but I'm claiming victory in the 2024 thread as follows.
"There a realistic risk here, if the tax income does not increase as planned, the very rich can work their way around these increases, and if growth is slow then the cost of borrowing increases as bond rates will go up as confidence is lost in the money markets."
This year the talk is about a range of tax rises to areas such as wealth, pensions and savings, fuel duty and property taxes. The clear risk here is that these measures will take money out of the economy as people move money between asset classes and the property market slows. A slow property market has a wide impact on legal services, building companies, DIY, furniture, white goods etc.
We are likely to see a lack of confidence in spending, combined with further pressure on some sectors pushing up prices and unemployment adding to today's problems.
Let's hope Reeves decides to stimulate confidence and get more money moving in the economy, the back benches seem to have won the day on Welfare Reform so I doubt it.
PS Why Part Deux, because the French are in the merde and we are not far behind them.
[Post edited 19 Sep 21:03]
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 07:43 - Sep 20 with 3178 views | EagleEye |
One of Reeves first moves as Chancellor was to increase the rate of national insurance payments for employers. How on earth she thought that would stimulate economic growth will remain one of life’s all time mysteries. Clueless.
Don’t get me started on the failure to follow through on welfare reforms … no backbone Reeves or Starmer |  | | |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 07:59 - Sep 20 with 3162 views | AnotherJohn |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 07:43 - Sep 20 by EagleEye |
One of Reeves first moves as Chancellor was to increase the rate of national insurance payments for employers. How on earth she thought that would stimulate economic growth will remain one of life’s all time mysteries. Clueless.
Don’t get me started on the failure to follow through on welfare reforms … no backbone Reeves or Starmer |
Welfare reform is absolutely key as the projected rate of future budget increase is completely unaffordable. The fact that the Labour backbenchers blocked what was quite a modest curtailment of spending in what had been a rapidly mushrooming welfare budget was a terrible omen. They talk vaguely about the answer being wealth taxes, in effect advocating a huge gamble that this approach would not lead to capital flight, further rises in national borrowing costs, and quite possibly an IMF bailout. Will Pat McGadden get them to see sense before it is too late? I doubt it. |  | | |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 11:36 - Sep 20 with 3066 views | johnlangy |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 07:59 - Sep 20 by AnotherJohn |
Welfare reform is absolutely key as the projected rate of future budget increase is completely unaffordable. The fact that the Labour backbenchers blocked what was quite a modest curtailment of spending in what had been a rapidly mushrooming welfare budget was a terrible omen. They talk vaguely about the answer being wealth taxes, in effect advocating a huge gamble that this approach would not lead to capital flight, further rises in national borrowing costs, and quite possibly an IMF bailout. Will Pat McGadden get them to see sense before it is too late? I doubt it. |
So much has been said about millionaires leaving the UK. Almost everyone blames this on Rachel Reeves' last budget. The biggest number i've seen is 16,500. That is around 0.5% of all millionaires in the country. So that leaves just 3,283,500 (approx).
What i'd like to know is how many of them were already planning on leaving anyway, nothing to do with the budget. Some of them certainly would have been. Then i'd also like to know how many millionaires came into the country in the same period. Some certainly would have.
Just a few thoughts. | | | |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 12:00 - Sep 20 with 3050 views | Whiterockin |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 11:36 - Sep 20 by johnlangy |
So much has been said about millionaires leaving the UK. Almost everyone blames this on Rachel Reeves' last budget. The biggest number i've seen is 16,500. That is around 0.5% of all millionaires in the country. So that leaves just 3,283,500 (approx).
What i'd like to know is how many of them were already planning on leaving anyway, nothing to do with the budget. Some of them certainly would have been. Then i'd also like to know how many millionaires came into the country in the same period. Some certainly would have.
Just a few thoughts. |
It's not just about millionaires though. I would class myself as comfortable not wealthy but I continually take tax advice. Not to avoid paying tax but limit your liabilities, many do exactly the same. This has a bigger impact on government revenue than millionaires leaving the country, purely on the logistics of numbers. Over £70 Billion was moved out of pension funds in the last financial year to avoid the government's new regulations. |  | | |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 12:34 - Sep 20 with 2997 views | Dr_Winston |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 11:36 - Sep 20 by johnlangy |
So much has been said about millionaires leaving the UK. Almost everyone blames this on Rachel Reeves' last budget. The biggest number i've seen is 16,500. That is around 0.5% of all millionaires in the country. So that leaves just 3,283,500 (approx).
What i'd like to know is how many of them were already planning on leaving anyway, nothing to do with the budget. Some of them certainly would have been. Then i'd also like to know how many millionaires came into the country in the same period. Some certainly would have.
Just a few thoughts. |
Even a small decrease in the number of net taxpayers, especially in the higher brackets, can have a major hit on Goverment revenues.
If that 0.5% of millionaires come from the 10% of income tax payers responsible for over 60% of income tax receipts then we're looking at a major shortfall.
Best to set a tax policy that attracts millionaires instead of driving them away. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 18:14 - Sep 20 with 2867 views | Whiterockin |
VAT coming on taxi rides. | | | |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 18:47 - Sep 20 with 2822 views | onehunglow |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 18:14 - Sep 20 by Whiterockin |
VAT coming on taxi rides. |
That ll affect the poorer off after going to Iceland | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 20:46 - Sep 20 with 2762 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 12:34 - Sep 20 by Dr_Winston |
Even a small decrease in the number of net taxpayers, especially in the higher brackets, can have a major hit on Goverment revenues.
If that 0.5% of millionaires come from the 10% of income tax payers responsible for over 60% of income tax receipts then we're looking at a major shortfall.
Best to set a tax policy that attracts millionaires instead of driving them away. |
The top 0.1 percent account for 12.7 percent of income tax. This is just 50,000 people. | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:05 - Sep 20 with 2726 views | Dr_Winston |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 20:46 - Sep 20 by JACKMANANDBOY |
The top 0.1 percent account for 12.7 percent of income tax. This is just 50,000 people. |
£301bn total UK income tax receipts in 24/25 according to Statista.
So 0.1% of income tax payers contribute just over £38bn between them. "Tax the Rich" indeed. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:12 - Sep 20 with 2718 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:05 - Sep 20 by Dr_Winston |
£301bn total UK income tax receipts in 24/25 according to Statista.
So 0.1% of income tax payers contribute just over £38bn between them. "Tax the Rich" indeed. |
If 10 percent of those people change their arrangements or walk we need to find £3.8 Billion. | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:22 - Sep 20 with 2691 views | Dr_Winston |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:12 - Sep 20 by JACKMANANDBOY |
If 10 percent of those people change their arrangements or walk we need to find £3.8 Billion. |
And herein lies the problem behind the kind of simplistic "Tax the rich" or "let the Millionaires leave" nonsense we so often see spouted in Socialist circles. It is, by and large, the wealthy who already pay considerably more than most.
There are something like 35/36 million income tax payers in the UK. If you take out those who derive their income directly from the Government so aren't net tax contributors (Civil Service, NHS, Armed Forces etc - the state employs around 6m people) that number drops to below 30 million.
30 million people supporting a population of nearly 70m. We're in the shit. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:31 - Sep 20 with 2651 views | trampie |
From memory Thatcher cut the top rate of income tax from 83% to 60% for the rich and gave a small cut for the basic rate tax payers from 33% to 30% when she got in she then went on the cut income taxes more and more and so did future Governments including Labour. |  |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:53 - Sep 20 with 2593 views | trampie |
Just looked Thatcher cut top rate of income tax for the rich from 83% down to just 40% during her time, basic rate only dropped from 33% to 25%
VAT which is seen as a tax on the less well off nearly doubled during her time from 8% to 15%. | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:56 - Sep 20 with 2580 views | trampie |
Thatcher ruined the country, no wonder we went from one of the most equal countries as regards wealth equality to one of the most unequal leading countries in the World, our rich got richer and our poor got poorer, now we have food banks and homeless people everywhere. | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 22:26 - Sep 20 with 2536 views | johnlangy |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 21:22 - Sep 20 by Dr_Winston |
And herein lies the problem behind the kind of simplistic "Tax the rich" or "let the Millionaires leave" nonsense we so often see spouted in Socialist circles. It is, by and large, the wealthy who already pay considerably more than most.
There are something like 35/36 million income tax payers in the UK. If you take out those who derive their income directly from the Government so aren't net tax contributors (Civil Service, NHS, Armed Forces etc - the state employs around 6m people) that number drops to below 30 million.
30 million people supporting a population of nearly 70m. We're in the shit. |
If someone is a civil servant and earns a certain amount of money he pays the same tax as someone who doesn't work for the government and is paid the same amount. So why would the second person be a net tax contributor while the civil servant isn't. | | | |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 23:00 - Sep 20 with 2488 views | Dr_Winston |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 22:26 - Sep 20 by johnlangy |
If someone is a civil servant and earns a certain amount of money he pays the same tax as someone who doesn't work for the government and is paid the same amount. So why would the second person be a net tax contributor while the civil servant isn't. |
Seriously?
The five grand in tax the Government might get from someone employed by the private sector is a gain. The five grand the Government gets back from someone who it gave it to in the first place is not.
This is not a difficult concept. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 23:13 - Sep 20 with 2475 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 22:26 - Sep 20 by johnlangy |
If someone is a civil servant and earns a certain amount of money he pays the same tax as someone who doesn't work for the government and is paid the same amount. So why would the second person be a net tax contributor while the civil servant isn't. |
It's a whole system perspective. Take a person who works for someone like JCB. JCB make money from selling machinery all around round the World. The money comes into the Company from a number of countries and then the Company pay the employees who pay tax on their earnings to the Government in taxes. So the tax deduction from the employee is new money into the Government.
If you are a Government employee you are paid from the Government's income which is made up largely from taxes paid by people like the JCB worker. The Government employee is paid from these taxes and then pays personal tax on their earnings. The Government employee costs the government money as it has to give up the money it has earned from workers such as those as JCB.
So the JCB employee pays tax from income which originates from sales of JCBs all around the World, this is money that is brought into the country and adds to the money the country has. The Government employee is paid from taxes which reduces the amount of money the country has, the Government employee passes back some of the money they take from the Government coffers in tax. [Post edited 20 Sep 23:28]
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 02:35 - Sep 21 with 2327 views | DJack |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 20:46 - Sep 20 by JACKMANANDBOY |
The top 0.1 percent account for 12.7 percent of income tax. This is just 50,000 people. |
Ah! A fact without context, well done.
You failed to mention that they hold MORE than 12.7% of the income and therfore pay a whole lot less tax than the rest whilst relying on underpaying those below them to achieve those profits. |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 08:59 - Sep 21 with 2134 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 02:35 - Sep 21 by DJack |
Ah! A fact without context, well done.
You failed to mention that they hold MORE than 12.7% of the income and therfore pay a whole lot less tax than the rest whilst relying on underpaying those below them to achieve those profits. |
Actually the top 0.1 percent account for 5.9 percent of total income and 12.7 percent of the income tax take in the UK. | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 09:24 - Sep 21 with 2084 views | trampie |
We have gone from 90% top rate of income tax to 48% over the decades.
Thatcher introduced greed and now the UK has gone down hill big time, the only reason people would want more of the same is either greed, being ill-informed or propaganda or a combination. | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 09:45 - Sep 21 with 2033 views | majorraglan |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 09:24 - Sep 21 by trampie |
We have gone from 90% top rate of income tax to 48% over the decades.
Thatcher introduced greed and now the UK has gone down hill big time, the only reason people would want more of the same is either greed, being ill-informed or propaganda or a combination. |
The world has changed significantly and a 90% top rate of tax is ridiculous.
It’s about having a balance, the rich and affluent have to pay their share, but if they are crucified they’ll upsticks and emigrate.
Going back to the 1950’s and 1960’s when we had those tax rates, it was very difficult for people to move around like they can today, no golden visas, you couldn’t be in Oz or New Zealand in 24 hours, no internet etc to keep in touch with families, accessing good healthcare was an issue in many places. These days you can be anywhere in 2 days, access top healthcare almost anywhere in the world if you have the cash etc.
We can’t live in the past, referring to things that happened 70 years ago is crackers. The world society has changed and we need to move with it. | | | |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 09:56 - Sep 21 with 2003 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 09:24 - Sep 21 by trampie |
We have gone from 90% top rate of income tax to 48% over the decades.
Thatcher introduced greed and now the UK has gone down hill big time, the only reason people would want more of the same is either greed, being ill-informed or propaganda or a combination. |
One of our problems is the complexity of the tax code. Here's an article that outlines the issue and why simply increasing the rate for the highest earners does not really work ; they have multiple income sources and the tax code is so complicated that there are different options with respect to how earned income and unearned income is taxed.
The top earners are also likely to hold sufficient wealth to allow them to choose how and when they take 'income'. Throw in the increasing globalisation of the financial systems and there is a whole lot of wriggle room which in effect means that pushing too hard on a particular area such as income tax or capital gains tax will see a change in behaviour.
If we are to increase taxes on the highest earners and owners we also need to make significant changes to the tax code and be smart enough to avoid the ' unintended consequences '.
What hits the poorest hardest is taxes like VAT, Council Tax and fuel duty. The current government has opened the door for council tax increases and I would expect some increases in the scope of VAT and the level of fuel duty in the next budget. What we need is a budget that gets money moving in the economy.
https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/05/08/tax-rich-1970s-loopholes/#:~:text=From%20197 | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 10:03 - Sep 21 with 1973 views | trampie |
Give the less well off more money and pay for it by taking more from the well off that will get the economy going where as we are doing it the other way around and the UK is going down the pan. | |
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| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 10:13 - Sep 21 with 1949 views | Dr_Winston |
| Budget Speculation - Part Deux 2025 on 09:45 - Sep 21 by majorraglan |
The world has changed significantly and a 90% top rate of tax is ridiculous.
It’s about having a balance, the rich and affluent have to pay their share, but if they are crucified they’ll upsticks and emigrate.
Going back to the 1950’s and 1960’s when we had those tax rates, it was very difficult for people to move around like they can today, no golden visas, you couldn’t be in Oz or New Zealand in 24 hours, no internet etc to keep in touch with families, accessing good healthcare was an issue in many places. These days you can be anywhere in 2 days, access top healthcare almost anywhere in the world if you have the cash etc.
We can’t live in the past, referring to things that happened 70 years ago is crackers. The world society has changed and we need to move with it. |
And those who did have a bit of mobility chose to move when they could. The amount of high earning film stars, musicians and business people who spent time abroad for tax reasons was significant.
And that's leaving aside the obvious disgusting act that taking 90% of anyone's income from them is, no matter how high that income might be. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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