Forum | are we safe, yes or no.... by qpr_1968

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are we safe, yes or no.... 01:32 - Apr 6 with 18217 views

qpr_1968

who can answer that with confidence...

yes, just about.

come on all you experts....

Poll:

how many games this season....home/away.

are we safe, yes or no.... on 20:10 - Apr 10 with 3208 views

kensalriser

are we safe, yes or no.... on 19:58 - Apr 10 by mart_Goblin
I simply can’t be doing with working out permeatations and who will win what etc . Last night told us that results can be ‘odd’ this time of year . Least season too for example . But the pundits and commentators on Sky last night all agreed that a team will go down with more than 50 points this season. Not sure if that’s realistic or not but another win would make feel a lot better .

It's not realistic to assume that two teams currently running one point ahead of a point per game will get nine points each from the last five games and finish five points ahead of a point per game. They haven't done the arithmetic.

Poll:

QPR to finish 7th or Brentford to drop out of the top 6?

are we safe, yes or no.... on 20:42 - Apr 10 with 3103 views

hantssi

are we safe, yes or no.... on 20:10 - Apr 10 by kensalriser
It's not realistic to assume that two teams currently running one point ahead of a point per game will get nine points each from the last five games and finish five points ahead of a point per game. They haven't done the arithmetic.

Agreed, it’s patent nonsense to suggest a team currently on 42 points will suddenly go on a winning streak on get 9 points from 5 games, that’s promotion form!

are we safe, yes or no.... on 20:58 - Apr 10 with 3067 views

derbyhoop

are we safe, yes or no.... on 20:42 - Apr 10 by hantssi
Agreed, it’s patent nonsense to suggest a team currently on 42 points will suddenly go on a winning streak on get 9 points from 5 games, that’s promotion form!

One of them might but not both.
And Derby play Luton over Easter.

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain) Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky

are we safe, yes or no.... on 22:21 - Apr 10 with 2958 views

daveB

are we safe, yes or no.... on 20:42 - Apr 10 by hantssi
Agreed, it’s patent nonsense to suggest a team currently on 42 points will suddenly go on a winning streak on get 9 points from 5 games, that’s promotion form!

and yet it happens almost every year that teams down the bottom show promotion form at the end of the season just like we did last year winning our last 3 games

are we safe, yes or no.... on 23:43 - Apr 10 with 2858 views

HAYESBOY

Remaining fixtures.

Luton - Blackburn (h) Derby (a) Bristol (h) Coventry (h) West Brom (a)

Cardiff - Stoke (h) Sheff Utd (a) Oxford (h) West Brom (h) Norwich (a)

Derby - Portsmouth (a) Luton (h) West Brom (a) Hull (a) Stoke (h)

Stoke - Cardiff (a) Sheff Wed (h) Leeds (a) Sheff Utd (h) Derby (a)

Hull - Coventry (h) Swansea (a) Preston (h) Derby (h) Portsmouth (a)

Oxford - Sheff Wed (a) Leeds (h) Cardiff (a) Sunderland (h) Swansea (a)

Portsmouth - Derby (h) Norwich (a) Watford (h) Sheff Wed (a) Hull (h)

With those fixtures I don't see 6 of the 7 teams overhauling us.

Smells like a trout farm in here

are we safe, yes or no.... on 23:49 - Apr 10 with 2845 views

KensalT

are we safe, yes or no.... on 20:10 - Apr 10 by kensalriser
It's not realistic to assume that two teams currently running one point ahead of a point per game will get nine points each from the last five games and finish five points ahead of a point per game. They haven't done the arithmetic.

You just need to look at the recent form:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/queens-park-rangers/table

Derby - 13 points from their last 6
Luton 9
Stoke 8
Hull 8

Luton unbeaten in their last 5 games. Cardiff unbeaten in 4.

Just think back to last season. Blackburn won away to Leeds and Leicester in their last four games. When you're battling for your life the formbook goes out the window.

I think we'll be safe but it's too early to hit the beach.

[Post edited 10 Apr 23:50]

are we safe, yes or no.... on 00:01 - Apr 11 with 2818 views

kensalriser

are we safe, yes or no.... on 23:43 - Apr 10 by HAYESBOY

6 of them could and we still wouldn't go down, it needs to be 7.

Sure, there may well be one or even two sides that manage to win several of the remaining games. More likely is one or two will win none and scrape a couple of draws. Also, and I have no idea how this happened, we have the best GD in the bottom half.

Dave is just suffering from QPR PTSD.

Poll:

QPR to finish 7th or Brentford to drop out of the top 6?

are we safe, yes or no.... on 00:31 - Apr 11 with 2768 views

NewcastleHoop

Guys. If we'd lost to Oxford, the five teams below us would have needed a combined 15 points to send us down. Now, the seven teams below us need a combined 35 points. This is fine.

are we safe, yes or no.... on 10:53 - Apr 11 with 2486 views

daveB

are we safe, yes or no.... on 00:01 - Apr 11 by kensalriser
6 of them could and we still wouldn't go down, it needs to be 7. Sure, there may well be one or even two sides that manage to win several of the remaining games. More likely is one or two will win none and scrape a couple of draws. Also, and I have no idea how this happened, we have the best GD in the bottom half. Dave is just suffering from QPR PTSD.

Clive said it better with his bathtub analogy in the match report but no PTSD just realism that this team 2 years ago went from top of the league to almost relegated, that we went in March from outside chance of the playoffs to losing every week and just knowing this league and what good form likes of Derby, Cardiff and Luton are in and how capable Oxford and Pompey are of winning a few home games

I hope you are right and we can afford to lose the last 5 games, personally I'll feel better if we get a few more points

are we safe, yes or no.... on 11:09 - Apr 11 with 2451 views

Spaghetti_Hoops

Opta’s computer puts the chances of us being relegated at 0.1% I.e. 1 in a 1000.
Amazing that some still want to debate it.
Opta say we are 10 times more likely to finish in the play-offs 5th or 6th.
Which is also not worth thinking about.

are we safe, yes or no.... on 11:34 - Apr 11 with 2377 views

daveB

are we safe, yes or no.... on 11:09 - Apr 11 by Spaghetti_Hoops
Opta’s computer puts the chances of us being relegated at 0.1% I.e. 1 in a 1000. Amazing that some still want to debate it. Opta say we are 10 times more likely to finish in the play-offs 5th or 6th. Which is also not worth thinking about.

The odds are so big because the opta compute is assuming we won't lose all 5 games which is again unlikely but something we're quite capable of doing

are we safe, yes or no.... on 12:03 - Apr 11 with 2350 views

WestonsuperR

are we safe, yes or no.... on 11:34 - Apr 11 by daveB
The odds are so big because the opta compute is assuming we won't lose all 5 games which is again unlikely but something we're quite capable of doing

My view is that if we lose all 5 matches, we are about 75% chance still safe. With our GD, Cardiff would need 8pts from 6 matches or Luton 10pts, both fairly unlikely but not impossible.

are we safe, yes or no.... on 12:17 - Apr 11 with 2318 views

loftus77

are we safe, yes or no.... on 12:03 - Apr 11 by WestonsuperR
My view is that if we lose all 5 matches, we are about 75% chance still safe. With our GD, Cardiff would need 8pts from 6 matches or Luton 10pts, both fairly unlikely but not impossible.

From me:
Win tomorrow (....) - mathematically officially safe (I think? - its v. complicated). All over.

Draw tomorrow - almost certainly safe bar an epic calamity over the last 4 matches, even by our noble standards.

Lose tomorrow - and on we go. Could well still be safe - but its us....

are we safe, yes or no.... (n/t) on 12:59 - Apr 11 with 2267 views

Spaghetti_Hoops

[Post edited 11 Apr 13:01]

are we safe, yes or no.... on 17:48 - Apr 11 with 2116 views

WestonsuperR

are we safe, yes or no.... on 12:17 - Apr 11 by loftus77
From me: Win tomorrow (....) - mathematically officially safe (I think? - its v. complicated). All over. Draw tomorrow - almost certainly safe bar an epic calamity over the last 4 matches, even by our noble standards. Lose tomorrow - and on we go. Could well still be safe - but its us....

I tend to agree, although not as simple as that, very much now depends on other results. I’m only concerned if we lose and the likes of Derby, Luton and Cardiff win then we are back in it.

are we safe, yes or no.... on 19:05 - Apr 11 with 2043 views

terryb

are we safe, yes or no.... on 23:43 - Apr 10 by HAYESBOY

Not too many of these games are against clubs with nothing to play for & those are the games that you want at this time of the season. Oxford & Portsmouthhave the easiest fixtures on that basis.

Luton - 1 or 2 depending on West Bromich position
Cardiff - 1 or 2 depending on West Bromich position
Derby - 1 depending on West Bromich position
Stoke - 1
Hull - 2
Oxford - 3
Portsmouth - 3

Rangers also have 3, or an unlikely 4 if Burnley know their final placing by then!

are we safe, yes or no.... on 17:35 - Apr 12 with 1745 views

qprmeath21

are we safe, yes or no.... on 19:05 - Apr 11 by terryb

The 50 point party tonight?

are we safe, yes or no.... on 17:49 - Apr 12 with 1639 views

ManinBlack

Last week I reckoned we were safe because of the incompetence of others and we have seen that today. Cardiff scoring an own goal near the end to lose and Luton losing to off form 10 man Blackburn at home. I cannot see the bottom 3 catching us now with 4 games left.

As I also thought, Sunderland have switched off for the play offs so here is our chance to finally beat them in the last game which we haven't done since they came up from league 1.

are we safe, yes or no.... on 17:54 - Apr 12 with 1620 views

rbee

Stoke's win at Cardiff now gives us an eight point gap and Cardiff do have some tough games.

I think we are safe now

are we safe, yes or no.... on 18:16 - Apr 12 with 1534 views

W12Mikey

Luton and Plymouth are 10 points behind us with 12 still to play for. They need to win 3 and draw 1 just to equal our current points. That is not going to happen.
Cardiff are 8 points behind so need 2 wins and 2 draws to equal our points total, and they need to turn round a goal difference currently 15 worse than ours. I’m pretty sure that is not going to happen either. Even if it did, we only go down if Derby win 2 and draw 1 out of 4, and all of Preston, Stoke, Portsmouth and Hull also overtake us.
Conclusion - we are safe

are we safe, yes or no.... on 18:35 - Apr 12 with 1442 views

kensalriser

Looking forward to reading the ever more zany routes by which we could still go down.

Poll:

QPR to finish 7th or Brentford to drop out of the top 6?

are we safe, yes or no.... on 18:47 - Apr 12 with 1379 views

hoopedmonkey

are we safe, yes or no.... on 18:35 - Apr 12 by kensalriser
Looking forward to reading the ever more zany routes by which we could still go down.

I think our chances of a play off place have just gone

are we safe, yes or no.... on 19:00 - Apr 12 with 1318 views

EalingHoop81

are we safe, yes or no.... on 17:54 - Apr 12 by rbee
Stoke's win at Cardiff now gives us an eight point gap and Cardiff do have some tough games. I think we are safe now

Cardiff would need to win 3 of their 4 games and for us not to get a point given the goal difference. I cannot see them winning 3 of 4. Luton need to win all 4 to overtake us. Would take something absolutely incredible from here to be relegeted

are we safe, yes or no.... on 17:32 - Apr 18 with 451 views

Juzzie

Yes!

are we safe, yes or no.... on 17:35 - Apr 18 with 410 views

HAYESBOY

are we safe, yes or no.... on 17:32 - Apr 18 by Juzzie
Yes!

Baring a points deduction for having a come in the wrong place on Varane's contract.

Smells like a trout farm in here

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