| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT 10:01 - May 2 with 16683 views | johnlangy |
This possibilty increases by the day. And certainly did last night. But something was said by a Reform person this morning that if they were to become the next government could result in a monumental constitutional crisis.
Imagine at the next GE Reform were to stand on a policy of leaving the ECHR. Then they are elected and produce legislation to that effect. They get it through the House of Commons and it goes to the House of Lords. There is not one Reform peer in the HOL and the vast bulk of the 850 or so peers is made up of Labour/Conservative/Lib Dem etc etc peers who would fight tooth and nail to scupper the plan.
I wonder what the public's reaction would be at seeing the 'establishment' preventing something happening that they had voted for. It is certainly something Reform would try to do and it would be refreshing in an odd sort of way (i'm not a Reform voter) to see a party actually do what they said they would do in their manifesto.
And there's the crisis. You could argue that this would be the best argument for scrapping the HOL all together. Because in this instance many would argue that democracy is broken. Others would say the HOL is part of our democracy.
Then the question is, does democracy belong to the 70 million of us or the 850 of them. |  | | |  |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 09:28 - May 12 with 1286 views | Whiterockin |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 07:44 - May 12 by Kilkennyjack |
Not sure you are understanding.
None will announce before election.
It could happen after election depending on results.
The progressive parties vs UKIP/Tory.
Thr voting system makes this more likely that FPTP.
There have been exceptions , but usually nobody blinks. |
It will be discussed before the election. Everyone knows under the new system there will be a coalition and everyone will want to know who they are voting for even through the back door. Do you not think the question will be asked over and over again by the media. If Plaid opt with Labour their popularity will drop, that is the simple fact because currently nobody wants to be associated with Labour. |  | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 10:18 - May 12 with 1254 views | johnlangy |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 06:21 - May 12 by Whiterockin |
The question is when parties declare who they would form a coalition with, will the planned Plaid vote hold up if the agree to form a coalition with Labour. In my opinion it will fall off a cliff. |
The difference with the previous Labour/Plaid coalition is that Labour were the biggest party. So essentially they dictated a lot of what Plaid had to accept in order for them to get some of their policies through as well.
Hopefully this time it will be the other way round with Plaid being the party governing with Labour hanging on their coat tails. A huge difference. | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 10:30 - May 12 with 1226 views | raynor94 |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 10:18 - May 12 by johnlangy |
The difference with the previous Labour/Plaid coalition is that Labour were the biggest party. So essentially they dictated a lot of what Plaid had to accept in order for them to get some of their policies through as well.
Hopefully this time it will be the other way round with Plaid being the party governing with Labour hanging on their coat tails. A huge difference. |
But surely If Plaid the party of independence get the most votes at the next election, they should hold a referendum, but they have already said they won't.
What are they frightened of? are they that desperate for power |  |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 11:14 - May 12 with 1192 views | SullutaCreturned |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 10:30 - May 12 by raynor94 |
But surely If Plaid the party of independence get the most votes at the next election, they should hold a referendum, but they have already said they won't.
What are they frightened of? are they that desperate for power |
Not frightened as much as common sense has won out. They know the vast majority in Wales are pro Union so what is the point in losing votes to try and get a referendum they'd lose anyway. Desperate for power...well yes.
WR, I don't think they will announce who they'd form a coalition with, yes they'll discuss it but any media questions will be batted away, in my opinion. They will wait to see who has the votes, they will see if they can form a government with anybody else, how many seats will green or independents win?
Now is when Ap Iorwerth needs to up his game and try to grab those floating voters, now he needs to try and get Labour and Tory voters to come to him. Go and ask them what they want from the Welsh government and see how much he can give them. There is always policy crossover so talk to them, ask, see if Plaid can win enough seats they can tell Labour and Reform to get lost.
What Wales needs next is certainty, we don't need the kind of political infighting seen in Ireland and Germany that paralysed the governments for months. | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 12:11 - May 12 with 1151 views | johnlangy |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 10:30 - May 12 by raynor94 |
But surely If Plaid the party of independence get the most votes at the next election, they should hold a referendum, but they have already said they won't.
What are they frightened of? are they that desperate for power |
I think you knew very well when writing that that it wasn't a reasonable point to make raynor.
So if we imagine Plaid got a majority in the Senedd but with 35% of the votes (and 35% is probably a stretch) they are then going to say let's hold a referendum while knowing they'd get a 35% yes vote !
We all know in reality that if Plaid was to become the majority party in the Senedd they would have to run the country successfully for probably two terms before hopefully persuading a majority that independence was a good idea. If they weren't successful then the indy numbers would go down not up. | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 16:02 - May 12 with 1088 views | SullutaCreturned |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 12:11 - May 12 by johnlangy |
I think you knew very well when writing that that it wasn't a reasonable point to make raynor.
So if we imagine Plaid got a majority in the Senedd but with 35% of the votes (and 35% is probably a stretch) they are then going to say let's hold a referendum while knowing they'd get a 35% yes vote !
We all know in reality that if Plaid was to become the majority party in the Senedd they would have to run the country successfully for probably two terms before hopefully persuading a majority that independence was a good idea. If they weren't successful then the indy numbers would go down not up. |
Even if they do that and run the country very well it could still depend on Westminster. Not just for permission to have the vote either.
The thing that troubles me is having to ask Westminster for permission, what happens if they said no? When other places have wanted indy the UK has supported them, Kosovo for example. It'd be very hypocritical for them to tell Wales no.
Not that I am currently in favour of indy but I can't predict the future. I don't think it'll happen soon (next 20 years say) but who knows.
I have contacted Ap Iorwerth today with a few questions, he usually answers and fairly quickly too, unlike Labour when I asked them. Plaid are currently my choice but things can change. | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 22:04 - May 12 with 1024 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 09:28 - May 12 by Whiterockin |
It will be discussed before the election. Everyone knows under the new system there will be a coalition and everyone will want to know who they are voting for even through the back door. Do you not think the question will be asked over and over again by the media. If Plaid opt with Labour their popularity will drop, that is the simple fact because currently nobody wants to be associated with Labour. |
Ask away but everyone of them will duck it … |  |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 22:09 - May 12 with 1010 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 10:30 - May 12 by raynor94 |
But surely If Plaid the party of independence get the most votes at the next election, they should hold a referendum, but they have already said they won't.
What are they frightened of? are they that desperate for power |
Well you deliver, build a record, and then have a vote at the right time.
You build support, build momentum, build confidence, and then win the referendum by a definitive margin.
The future is already assured …
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 10:58 - May 13 with 934 views | SullutaCreturned |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 22:09 - May 12 by Kilkennyjack |
Well you deliver, build a record, and then have a vote at the right time.
You build support, build momentum, build confidence, and then win the referendum by a definitive margin.
The future is already assured …
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The future isn't assured, it isn't written. It's like long grass in the wind, it sways back and fore and anything could happen.
Just look at UK labour, they came in on a wave but now? | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 12:14 - May 13 with 901 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 10:58 - May 13 by SullutaCreturned |
The future isn't assured, it isn't written. It's like long grass in the wind, it sways back and fore and anything could happen.
Just look at UK labour, they came in on a wave but now? |
There are none so blind as those who do not want to see ….
Just saying ….. the old certainties are dead in the water. | |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 12:47 - May 13 with 873 views | SullutaCreturned |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 12:14 - May 13 by Kilkennyjack |
There are none so blind as those who do not want to see ….
Just saying ….. the old certainties are dead in the water. |
And there are none so stupid as those who believe they can predict the future. It's not that I don't want to see but I can't see around corners until I get there.
The old certainties have happened so yes, dead in the water. In the modern world very little is certain. As the vast majority of your predictions have proved. Tell us again how Trump and Bojo are going to prison... | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 12:57 - May 13 with 856 views | johnlangy |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 16:02 - May 12 by SullutaCreturned |
Even if they do that and run the country very well it could still depend on Westminster. Not just for permission to have the vote either.
The thing that troubles me is having to ask Westminster for permission, what happens if they said no? When other places have wanted indy the UK has supported them, Kosovo for example. It'd be very hypocritical for them to tell Wales no.
Not that I am currently in favour of indy but I can't predict the future. I don't think it'll happen soon (next 20 years say) but who knows.
I have contacted Ap Iorwerth today with a few questions, he usually answers and fairly quickly too, unlike Labour when I asked them. Plaid are currently my choice but things can change. |
Fair comment about Westminster cat. It's supposed to be a voluntary union. Which to me means it's your choice whether to stay or leave.
'You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave'. It seems that Wales has a permanent room at the Hotel California whether we want it or not. | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 13:06 - May 13 with 838 views | SullutaCreturned |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 12:57 - May 13 by johnlangy |
Fair comment about Westminster cat. It's supposed to be a voluntary union. Which to me means it's your choice whether to stay or leave.
'You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave'. It seems that Wales has a permanent room at the Hotel California whether we want it or not. |
Yes, John, as much as I am against indy, if we had a vote and indy won I would respect it. It does worry me more that if the day came the majority wanted it, Westminster just said no. I have my opinions and while I disagree about things with seevral people, I will always believe that what the majority vote for is what they should get.
I am plagued by being an idealist  | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 16:31 - May 13 with 795 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 13:06 - May 13 by SullutaCreturned |
Yes, John, as much as I am against indy, if we had a vote and indy won I would respect it. It does worry me more that if the day came the majority wanted it, Westminster just said no. I have my opinions and while I disagree about things with seevral people, I will always believe that what the majority vote for is what they should get.
I am plagued by being an idealist |
We know unionist Westminster will block, delay, mislead, and misinform to protect the union. Thats a given.
What Westminster cant control though, is Social Media and momentum.
They will want super majorities and prevent people voting, its standard.
But the north of Ireland will get its Border Poll and they will unite.
Then Scotland - this is the one unionists fear. Its 10 years already.
What then for Wales ? - a Celtic nation or Wales-shire. The choice is yours. | |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 17:40 - May 13 with 769 views | raynor94 |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 16:31 - May 13 by Kilkennyjack |
We know unionist Westminster will block, delay, mislead, and misinform to protect the union. Thats a given.
What Westminster cant control though, is Social Media and momentum.
They will want super majorities and prevent people voting, its standard.
But the north of Ireland will get its Border Poll and they will unite.
Then Scotland - this is the one unionists fear. Its 10 years already.
What then for Wales ? - a Celtic nation or Wales-shire. The choice is yours. |
Scotland has already said no, and support for SNP has tanked | |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 18:42 - May 13 with 734 views | SullutaCreturned |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 16:31 - May 13 by Kilkennyjack |
We know unionist Westminster will block, delay, mislead, and misinform to protect the union. Thats a given.
What Westminster cant control though, is Social Media and momentum.
They will want super majorities and prevent people voting, its standard.
But the north of Ireland will get its Border Poll and they will unite.
Then Scotland - this is the one unionists fear. Its 10 years already.
What then for Wales ? - a Celtic nation or Wales-shire. The choice is yours. |
Wales didn't push for indy back when nationalistic Welshness was much more prevalent, the unionist feeling now is still much stronger than indy support. A noisy minority isn't changing that soon, in my opinion.
What NI and Scotland do is up to their people but the Scottish have moved further away from indy despite what Swinney says.
statista.com/statistics/1170409/scottish-independence/
At its height Scottish indy support was 53% and it has been gradually shrinking, now down to 46%
In Ireland 44% want unification but won't accept higher taxes to make it happen.
The choice belongs to the electorate of Wales and as you already know there is a growing element of non Welsh born residents in Wales, you say they swang brexit, they'll probably swing an indy vote too. The more English that come to live in Wales, the less chance of indy, do you think?
Even Plaid have softened that stance. | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 19:11 - May 13 with 721 views | Whiterockin |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 18:42 - May 13 by SullutaCreturned |
Wales didn't push for indy back when nationalistic Welshness was much more prevalent, the unionist feeling now is still much stronger than indy support. A noisy minority isn't changing that soon, in my opinion.
What NI and Scotland do is up to their people but the Scottish have moved further away from indy despite what Swinney says.
statista.com/statistics/1170409/scottish-independence/
At its height Scottish indy support was 53% and it has been gradually shrinking, now down to 46%
In Ireland 44% want unification but won't accept higher taxes to make it happen.
The choice belongs to the electorate of Wales and as you already know there is a growing element of non Welsh born residents in Wales, you say they swang brexit, they'll probably swing an indy vote too. The more English that come to live in Wales, the less chance of indy, do you think?
Even Plaid have softened that stance. |
Some think if they continually repeat what they wish for it will happen, life is not like that. They just look very foolish. | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 19:22 - May 13 with 705 views | raynor94 |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 19:11 - May 13 by Whiterockin |
Some think if they continually repeat what they wish for it will happen, life is not like that. They just look very foolish. |
It's what he does, he finds great difficulty in accepting democratic decisions | |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 23:51 - May 13 with 630 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 19:11 - May 13 by Whiterockin |
Some think if they continually repeat what they wish for it will happen, life is not like that. They just look very foolish. |
Farage does not care mate - he thinks people wont notice that UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform are really all the same.
He thinks if he waves the union flag then 30% of people will support him even though they dont understand his politics. Good people but conned by a one trick pony.
Clacton were used, dont let him use Wales. | |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 23:57 - May 13 with 626 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 19:22 - May 13 by raynor94 |
It's what he does, he finds great difficulty in accepting democratic decisions |
Yes Farage should not threaten the future of our Senedd.
The welsh people already decided, at least twice. | |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 08:11 - May 14 with 552 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 18:42 - May 13 by SullutaCreturned |
Wales didn't push for indy back when nationalistic Welshness was much more prevalent, the unionist feeling now is still much stronger than indy support. A noisy minority isn't changing that soon, in my opinion.
What NI and Scotland do is up to their people but the Scottish have moved further away from indy despite what Swinney says.
statista.com/statistics/1170409/scottish-independence/
At its height Scottish indy support was 53% and it has been gradually shrinking, now down to 46%
In Ireland 44% want unification but won't accept higher taxes to make it happen.
The choice belongs to the electorate of Wales and as you already know there is a growing element of non Welsh born residents in Wales, you say they swang brexit, they'll probably swing an indy vote too. The more English that come to live in Wales, the less chance of indy, do you think?
Even Plaid have softened that stance. |
Not really though …
I already posted the latest polls for Wales. Not saying what you are saying at all.
Try this one for size ….
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 11:33 - May 14 with 494 views | Boundy |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 23:57 - May 13 by Kilkennyjack |
Yes Farage should not threaten the future of our Senedd.
The welsh people already decided, at least twice. |
You really shouldn't be worried about reforms plans for the Sennedd, labour is causing its own demise Reform may just tip it over the edge , we'll have to see because the future is not predictable but a change is coming . | |
| "In a free society, the State is the servant of the people—not the master." |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 15:13 - May 14 with 450 views | SullutaCreturned |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 08:11 - May 14 by Kilkennyjack |
Not really though …
I already posted the latest polls for Wales. Not saying what you are saying at all.
Try this one for size ….
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Well we must still be in the Eu then because all the polls said we'd vote to remain. Oh wait...Ah that's right, polls are often wrong because they ask loaded questions and the results are "weighted" which alters the results.
There is only ever ONE poll that counts and that is the actual vote, then we know. | | | |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 15:34 - May 14 with 436 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 15:13 - May 14 by SullutaCreturned |
Well we must still be in the Eu then because all the polls said we'd vote to remain. Oh wait...Ah that's right, polls are often wrong because they ask loaded questions and the results are "weighted" which alters the results.
There is only ever ONE poll that counts and that is the actual vote, then we know. |
I admire a man with a shovel who wont stop digging, fair play to you.
If you are right, then all these people are wasting their time …..
The UK's market, social, and opinion research industry, which includes polling, is worth approximately £9 billion. This industry contributes significantly to the UK economy and employs at least 70,000 people across over 4,000 businesses. The sector has seen substantial growth, with a recent increase of £1 billion in a year, reaching the record £9 billion valuation.
Strange mind when you think about it ….. | |
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| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 15:40 - May 14 with 432 views | Kilkennyjack |
| REFORM IN GOVERNMENT on 11:33 - May 14 by Boundy |
You really shouldn't be worried about reforms plans for the Sennedd, labour is causing its own demise Reform may just tip it over the edge , we'll have to see because the future is not predictable but a change is coming . |
You are right about Labour.
I do think Reform is fundamentally anti-welsh - and does represent a current and obvious threat to our national demiocratic well being.
This is what Farage achieved with Brexit ….
[Post edited 14 May 15:41]
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